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Der rundown

Ok, now where was I?

Ah yes, if I do so recall there was a moment of jubulation last week where the NHL and NHLPA cut the shit and finally announced that they had reached a deal in principle (read: just a ratification vote or two away from NHL action).

It happened to be the same day I got myself an eight week old puppy and just hours before I would end up getting food poisoning and dreading sitting at the computer while feeling as if I was having an odd-man-rush trying to make it's way from my stomach to my mouth.

Suffice it to say, my weekend sucked.

But this is not about me! The story is never supposed to be about the psuedo-journalist (read: guy with a web site who hasn't done a good enough job to get published elsewhere)... No sir... There's been a load of hockey talk through Tampa Bay and I've missed just about all of it over the last couple of days because it's been the last thing on my mind (whereas the first was yelling "Europe" at the sink.)

I alluded to eating crow or having to in my Illness post and Greg had asked in comments why the change of heart? There had been a table attached to the print version of Tom Jones July 15th article in the St. Petersburg Times that showed all my calculations earlier this summer were full of crap.


But the first glance is deceiving. Here's where it gets scary.

The Lightning has 13 players who are free agents, including stars Khabibulin, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Boyle and Fedotenko. Those five alone could chew up most of that $24-million. Then the Lightning would be left with little or no money to sign anyone else.

With only 8 players under contract -- it's a much more bleak picture to paint than the joyous bullshit I was spewing in Anarchy Ensues where I believed only 2 players weren't under contract for 2005-06. Erik at the Trib goes into further detail about the potential changing face of the Lightning.

Of course I still don't believe that, long term, the Lightning can't survive under the new rules if the team is ransacked under the new system. Nor do I believe the new system is malignant to teams. The Lightning had already had a tight budget to operate within over the last several years.... Gary Shelton points that out in his Sports Ed piece on the end of the lockout and how the new deal (long term) benefits the Lightning. Try not to find Gary's take too insulting and too black-and-white good-and-bad references.

John Tortorella made comments about the free agency status of certain stars -- and the fact he and the team shouldn't be / aren't going to kiss ass in an attempt to keep players around.


"If it's about chasing money, be on your way. Because we want guys who want to play and also be treated fairly by an organization. There's no begging. We're not going to beg."

Tim Taylor and Dave Andreychuk are also on that potential free agent list. With regards to Taylor? I could care. Get lost, Tim. You've worn out your welcome with the propoganda being spewed from your mouth. As for Dave Andreychuk -- it feels as if Super Dave will be a Caponomics Casualty. That isn't saying in the least bit that the fans or the team really don't want Dave back - but it's a matter of money now and there may be little or no room for him to return.

Of course, last year I tried to make a case for Freddie Modin taking the "C" on if Dave were to call it quits but I sure as hell don't want to see Dave go away under these circumstances. Yes, he would be technically going out as a Champion but he would have been back for the 2004-05 title defense if certain idiots hadn't screwed up labor negotiations and cost us a season.

Lets keep going on this track -- The Times has definately been more on the ball than the Tribune over the end of the Lockout and Tom Jones this morning published a rundown on players chances of returning.

To sum up Tom's article without stealing all of his content: The chances Marty and Vinny re-signing are better than fair, while Ruslan Fedotenko and Dan Boyle are 50-50. Nik Khabibulin will be a coveted commodity and his odds of leaving (due to UFA status) are astronomical while Super Dave and Tim Taylor want to play in TB.... Meaning they will probably be back unless financial room prevents it or they get insulted somehow by the teams offer.

There's national news I am likely forgetting and local hockey news I am out of touch with (No, Georgeann, I still haven't heard from the 'Sharks or anyone with the SEJHL)

But of course, i will close off this mega-post with one last thing that makes me very happy to see: The Instigator hath returned! All rejoice! All rejoice! :D

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Nice work with the round up. Glad you’re feeling better, JF.

by Gary on Jul 18, 2005 7:57 PM EDT reply actions  

So are you upset that the NHL went and changed the rules to effectively prevent Tampa Bay from having a chance at being a dominant potential dynasty?

by Greg on Jul 18, 2005 9:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Tampa Bay never had a shot at becomming a dominant dynasty. The economics of the old CBA would have torn the Lightning apart within two years tops. Your payroll had already jumped nearly 30% from 2003-04 to 2004-05, and with Khabibulin, St. Louis and Lecavalier all coming due before 05-06 or 06-07, the costs of maintaining this team were slim to none.

by Keith on Jul 19, 2005 12:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Keith I disagree.

Tampa had to have an explosion in revenues accompanying their victories to keep their core together and become a dynasty – but it could have happened. It happened well enough in Denver and East Rutherford that they won multiple cups. If Tampa is a hockey market too it would have happened there too.

We will never know if Tampa could have been a dynasty or not. The NHL brass stole the chance. Its better for ratings to have the champion in a more prominent market – so there was no desire to let Tampa try to repeat unlike say 1994 when there was a lockout and they let the Rangers try to repeat (although they failed)

by Greg on Jul 19, 2005 9:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Good to see you back at the keyboard!

Locally, it’s summer and everyone is out of town with a few coaching exceptions.

by Georgeann on Jul 19, 2005 1:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Greg – Averaging 18,000 a game per game (or claiming such), having a minimal payroll of $33 million or so, and still needing three rounds of playoffs to break even in 2003-04 concerns me.

Assuming the old CBA remained in force, the Lightning were looking at a payroll of around $45 million for 04-05. Increased ticket revenues, etc would have helped cover that cost, but where would the Lightning’s payroll have ended up in 05-06? $50 million? $55 million?

The costs of keeping the Lightning together was going to get prohibitive. Fact is, the only teams that were likely to remain together long term are the richest markets, which Tampa is not.

by Keith on Jul 19, 2005 8:03 PM EDT reply actions  

If the situation is as bleak as you seem to believe it is then Tampa Bay is not an NHL market.

Denver and East Rutherford have revenues exploed when they win the cup. They were able to keep together good enough teams to win it again even when their payrolls rose.

I believe Tampa Bay could do it also. The NHL marketed itself as having an overly bleak financial condition so that fans would accept a lockoput. A good portion of it was never true.

East frigging Rutherford managed to keep a Stanley Cup winning team together for years. Tampa Bay could have done the same if they were smart and if the NHL didn’t conspire against them to change the rules in midstream.

by Greg on Jul 20, 2005 12:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Um, did you bother to check the mean incomes for the New York Metropolitian region (the Tri State Area) or Denver and compare them with Tampa Bay?

Also did you compare how much ticket prices are jacked up in New Jersey to begin with? And how few sellouts they happen to have?

Christ, if the Lightning don’t sell out with tickets jacked up 75 percent in the opening round – Tampa’s not a hockey market. If Tampa sells out it’s games but because the region isn’t loaded with extra disposable income – it’s not a hockey market…

I never expected the Lightning to be a dynasty, Greg. I knew they would be competative and my crow-eating is simply over the fact they face a challenge staying competative with the situation post CBA in the NHL – like most of ther franchises.

by John F. on Jul 20, 2005 12:52 PM EDT reply actions  

It would have been better for Tampa to have their shot at being a dynasty then to have it taken away by the NHL brass. Maybe it would not have workled out but at least they would have had their fair shot.

Extra revenue from a winning team doesn’t come only from ticket sales. The local TV deal suddenly becomes more valuable. Companies pay more money to advertise on the boards during games. Major ocmpanies in the area buy luxory boxes to entertain clients who are in town. Tampa could have done this – if only they had a chance.

But the NHL stole it.

by Greg on Jul 20, 2005 1:07 PM EDT reply actions  

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