What Tampa can expect from Dan Ellis

by Dirk Hoag on Jul 1, 2010 8:06 PM EDT

Congrats on acquiring Dan Ellis, Lightning fans - Cassie asked me to give you guys the scoop on your newest goaltender.

	GP	MIN	W	L	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2009 - Dan Ellis	31	1715	15	13		77	2.69	848	771	.909	1

First off, go over to Twitter and give old @dellis39 a follow, he's easily one of the most entertaining guys you'll find there, hockey player or not. But follow after the jump for a bit more...

As Chris wrote on our site back in April, Dan's 2009-10 season had its ups and downs, but there's good reason to believe that he can handle a moderate workload and deliver better-than-average results in the NHL. That's a handy asset to have in a 1A-1B goaltending situation such as might exist with Tampa Bay alongside Mike Smith.

For goaltenders, it's pretty much all about the save percentage - their #1 job is to stop pucks, and other skills are secondary. That said, Ellis is a pretty good stickhandler, and enjoys coming out to play pucks and send a long pass up-ice to catch opposing teams trying to make a line change. Obviously, that can lead to misadventure on occasion, but he does whatever he can to help his team compete.

While his .909 save percentage may not dazzle the casual observer, let's take a look at how Ellis performed across a variety of situations...

	Save Percentage by situation, 2009-10
Dan Ellis	Shots Faced	Goals Allowed	Save %	Shot Quality Save %
Even Strength	700	55	.921	.911
Penalty Kill	133	21	.842	.868
Power Play	15	1	.933	.917
Total	848	77	.909	.904

The "Shot Quality Save %" reflects what an average NHL goaltender would have delivered given the same workload of shots (based on distance from the goal, type of shot, whether or not it was a rebound chance, etc.). Thus, at even strength, Dan delivered superior results, while on the PK he coughed up three or four more goals than expected (an .868 save percentage would have allowed 17.5).

Taken in total, his .909 compares somewhat favorably with the .904 that my Shot Quality model would predict. You can also look back to the 2007-8 season, when he led the NHL with a .924 Save Percentage and helped carry the Predators into the playoffs.

He's definitely got the skills to be a quality goalie, the only question is one of durability. During that 2007-8 season when he starting earning multiple starts in a row, there were concerns about his ability to maintain his playing weight. These have been moderated by a number of measures to help keep his body temperature down when playing, but I doubt he'll ever be a 60-start type of goalie.

But for $1.5 million per season, the Lightning have gotten themselves a very capable performer, and a player who I'm sure will become very popular with Tampa's fans. He was my 8-year-old daughter's favorite Predator, so take care of him, OK?

This post was written by a member of the Raw Charge community and doesn't necessarily express the views or opinions of Raw Charge staff.

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Dirk Hoag is the manager, as well as a writer, for the SB Nation Nashville Predators site, On the Forecheck.

Thanks, Dirk! Excellent work, as usual. We appreciate the help and the insight. :o)

There's nothing quite like the sound of a frozen puck hitting the glass. It makes me happy.

Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community.

by Cassie McClellan on Jul 1, 2010 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

shot quality

Exceleltn Dirk. Thanks. I was specualting on how to do a goalie model and one thin I mentioned was taking shots from power play, even strength and penalty kill or 4 on 4 …. you mentioned shot quality…where did you get the raw data for A) league average, and B) Individual goalies ….
Also, how is it actually broken down regarding distance etc. This woudl be very strong data collection if I read you correctly!

Great post.

by cflorida on Jul 1, 2010 9:46 PM EDT reply actions

Basically I take the raw data from play-by-play files from each game, break down every shot by distance, shot type, on-ice strength, etc., and use that to define Shot Quality based on how often shots in each category result in Goals. It’s not quite as precise as the most sophisticated models (which takes a few extra factors into account), but it’s much, much better than just look at raw Save Percentage numbers.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Jul 1, 2010 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions

He’s good, but not a #1 on a great majority of teams. Essentially, the Bolts have a pair of #2 goalies.

by Gobaby on Jul 2, 2010 6:38 PM EDT reply actions

I really think the bolts should have dealt smith and kept nitty. Gobaby is right that we now have two number two goalies. However, the bolts really have to learn to play all three periods because that is what killed them last season. even when the goaltending is strong, the rest of the team being back in their heels is not good

by glewis on Jul 13, 2010 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions

CONGRATS on this signing!

Dan Ellis is an awesome guy, following his twitter is a MUST.

Before the Toskala/Giguere trade, I was hoping to nab Ellis in the offseason. I’m ecstatic he didn’t sign in Montreal – I didn’t want to have to hate him!

Great pickup here, beauty of a cap hit as well.

Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.

by nhlcheapshot on Jul 2, 2010 8:30 PM EDT reply actions