Gagne-to-Tampa rumors: With potential reward comes risk
by John Fontana on Jul 15, 2010 1:06 PM EDT
in The Team
31 comments
A couple of days ago, we front paged a story about how (contingent on Ilya Kovalchuk signing in Los Angeles) the Bolts should trade for Simon Gagne.
Now it appears the Simon Gagne-to-Tampa speculation has some teeth to it.
Lightning beat writer Damian Cristordero reported today that the Bolts do indeed have soem interest, but it would also appear that there is a Vinik-level of secrecy going on here. No one will talk about it, no one will mention it. Silence abounds.
Damian then goes off in hyping up the potential of such an acquisition:
Acquiring Gagne, 30, who in the past three seasons in which he was healthy scored 47, 41 and 34 goals, would make the Lightning automatic playoff contenders. It would spike ticket sales. It would make Tampa Bay relevant again in a market where it has been the butt of jokes the past two years. And, besides, what’s the harm in a little short-term gain while Yzerman decides what direction to take the team in the future?
And yet, Cristordero answers his own question when leading into his hyping: "In the past three seasons in which he was healthy."
Cristordero goes on to list some of Gagne's past health-related issues from his years with the Flyers, but he segues into the potential far too often to seem like there should be any true caution.
So for a more objective take on Gagne's health, we jump over to our friend Mike Chen at From The Rink who has a piece up on Gagne's health related concerns:
The problem with Simon Gagne isn't so much that his injuries prevent him from being a top-line player; it's that he's got those dreaded injuries that can reoccur at almost any moment, and once they happen, it's a long road back. Let's see look at his injury history:
2002-03: Groin injury
October 2007: Concussion
February 2008: Concussion (re-injured on his first shift back)
August 2009: Groin injury (Olympic camp)
October 2009: Double sports hernia
Yep, that's a string of groin injuries and concussions. Those aren't the types of injuries you just heal from after a few weeks of sitting out. They can have lingering effects for months, perhaps even affecting the rest of someone's career. And the problem with both of those types of injuries is that once you have your first major incident, your susceptible to another.
So, on one hand, Gagne can score not only goals but many, many goals* despite injuries and physical ailments. On the other hand: The potential for a Darren Puppa redux, or even Alex Tanguay for that matter.
You do remember Alex Tanguay right? Brought in to much hype last season, but with thanks to the system he was playing in - largely forgotten, misused, underused, etc. That's one intangible that's not yet answered: How does Simon Gagne fit into Guy Boucher's system? Yes, Coach Boucher tailors a system to fit a player's skills and not trying to pound a player into his own personal system (a la Rick Tocchet).
Tanguay was also coming back from injuries, he was also around 30 years old and a proven point producer... and deemed a Vincent Lecavalier line answer.
What is my point here? It's not such a slam dunk case to go out and get Gagne. It doesn't even go into the No Trade Clause stuff, or the price-to-acquire for a team that lacks depth in the first place. Collecting assets now is the focus of Steve Yzerman, not a short-term addition, but someone who will pay dividends for a while to come for the Bolts.
I can't say the idea of adding Gagne is not a sexy one. I'm just trying to ground the expectations. Gagne is not the panacea that Cristordero makes him out to be.
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Nice Piece
Gagne definitely an iffy proposition. Our rookie GM with the five-year contract, however, has already shown a propensity to gamble: dice roll on first round draft choice, finger crossing that slowpoke Kubina can recharge his batteries here, oh-so-shaky goaltending going into the season. Heck, what’s another crapshoot? Outside of re-signing Marty and dumping Mez—obvious moves—Yzerman’s other signings/non-signings are questionable, bordering on puzzling. As for igniting attendance, announcement of a Gagne acquisition unto itself won’t sell a single season ticket. Cristodoro’s hallmark is that he is too close to the team and too out of touch with the fans.
On a superficial note,
I don’t like the flyers. Therefore I don’t like Gagne.
by Meredith Qualls on Jul 15, 2010 2:09 PM EDT reply actions
No on Gagne
I agree with John here. It would be one thing if he were the final piece to make us a cup contender. Id rather see Tyrell given a shot to fill that slot in camp. He looked like a man among boys at the prospects scrimmage last night and similar to Gagne has great speed. He also plays with an edge and can shoot, pass and create at high speed. Hw was also dominant in all three zones and lead Norfolk in plus/minus, a non-playoff team.
Don in St Pete
Gagne would be a great fit...
…as a final peice for a Cup run, but not now.
He’s not particularly known for his fore- or back-check—skills, either—both of which will both be important in Coach Boucher’s system.
back check
i just cant believe you said he cannot back check. thats amazing
Gagne's defensive game??
Wow. Hand in your fan card if you do not think Gagne is not at least decent defensivlely. Please do not stereotype him becuase he can score and is french. Not only does he willingly backcheck, he is good at it. Plus a first line left winger often has to play opposite the oppositions best sniper. This is all common knowledge around the league. His only drawback is his injuries. Those are well documented. Other than that he is a very good all around hockey player. One of the better players in the league. He has also been clutch as well.
Plus/Minus is good...
…but it doesn’t tell the whole story.
Sure, Gagne was a +20 this season, but Brett Hull (a prolific scorer in his own right, but also suspect on the back-check) was +18 in 2001 before he retired in 2005. Sure, Gagne’s a good scorer, but his game is not complete enough to warrant the picks/prospects/players we’d have to send north in return.
My opinion—your mileage may vary.
Jon Jordan chimes in
Strong piece talking about how the deal isn’t a smart move for the Lightning:
http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/jon-jordan/19772/
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
And yet you have these "confirmations" that the Lightning are, in fact, interested...
A hypothetical for you, John:
If you were having lunch with Steve Yzerman tomorrow and he confided he was going to try and trade for Gagne, would you try and talk him out of it?
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 1:51 AM EDT reply actions
Great article, though.
Like Jon, you brought up some issues that merit concern and caution.
I think what is interesting is that we have these different interpretations of Yzerman’s recorded statements on his “vision” and “goals” and “plans” for the Lightning that are floating around. I mean, take Yzerman’s preaching of patience and process-driven success. On the one hand, I think this is a candid philosophy but it can also be seen as a strategic antithesis to all the bluster and aggressive showmanship of the previous regime. Remember how quiet July 1 was supposed to be for the Lightning as they were going to supposedly wait out the market? Well, we all know how that turned out.
Again, I’m not saying it’s not genuine but I also don’t think Yzerman is so inflexible as to not attempt to capitalize on an opportunity to improve the club now without jeopardizing the long term goals.
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions
So let me get this straight...
You would be comfortable openly challenging a man who did his managerial apprenticeship in one of the best run organizations in the NHL over the past decade and a half? The man with how many Stanley Cup rings and a Hall of Fame career? C’mon.
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Not relevant to the actual hypothetical.
The hypothetical was:
If you were having lunch with Steve Yzerman tomorrow and he confided he was going to try and trade for Gagne, would you try and talk him out of it?
How does the article you linked address that and “agree” with you? He didn’t write anything like, “Steve, if you’re truly considering trading for Gagne, I would rethink it, man. Don’t do it. Think about the future!”
I thought the article was a sensible, balanced take. From the article:
Gagne definitely would speed up their rebuild, but not having him in a Lightning uniform wouldn’t derail it either.
For the record, I have not stated that the Lightning HAVE to trade for Simon Gagne in order to make the playoffs. I have an argument for why Steve Yzerman should trade for Gagne. There’s a significant difference there. Furthermore, my argument is extremely contingent: a) Kovalchuk must become a King, b) Yzerman should not “mortgage the future”.
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d want his justification, I’d want his own sentiment on things…
BTW, an Eklund “Confirmation” is worth bunk.
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Jul 16, 2010 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I know Eklund is a hack.
It was a dig at the fact that HockeyBuzz was Jon Jordan’s former blogging home, thus he was associated with Eklund.
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 10:46 AM EDT reply actions
The key word is “apprenticeship.” He’s unproven as a GM. He didn’t win rings as a GM and he didn’t get into the HOF as a GM. And several of his moves thus far can easily be challenged. Have some more Kool Aid.
Enlighten me.
Seriously. Since you are in such a well-informed position to judge Steve Yzerman’s performance to date, please share with us what missteps he has arguably made. After all, it is apparently very easy to see his folly to date.
We’ll ignore the fact, of course, that I’ve read nothing but praise heaped in his direction for his performance as GM so far. But I’m sure that’s just because he’s a nice Canadian who was a good player a long, long time ago, right? When I’m back from lunch, I’ll post a few links to support the fact I think the general consensus is he’s done a hell of a job to date.
I look forward to you sharing why he’s been merely questionable and I’m drinking “Kool Aid.”
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Yzerman bringing Red Wings way to Tampa Bay as new GM
…That will surely take some time, but Steve Yzerman already sounds like a seasoned executive, which in several respects, he is.
Yzerman gets golden opportunity as Bolts GM
“After talking to many people throughout the league, I came to the conclusion that Steve was the person to bring a winning culture back to this team,” Vinik said.
“Steve is in charge of all hockey-related decisions,” the owner added. “He does answer to me, but I trust his judgment and his insight.”
Bolts Day 1 Free Agent Frenzy: Yzerman Performs Magic
The hockey Gods are shining down on Hockey Bay lately and that trend continued today as the NHL’s "Free Agent Frenzy" began. The chosen Lightning apostle, Steve Yzerman, blessed the Lightning faithful by making the team better while remaining fiscally responsible.
New GMs building carefully in free agency
Steve Yzerman is fond of preaching patience and the new general manager of the Tampa Bay Lightning is taking his own advice as he builds his team.
Yzerman dipped into the free-agent market on Friday to bring back a familiar face, signing defenseman Pavel Kubina(notes) to a US$7.7 million, two-year deal.
It might not be the kind of signing that jumps out from the flurry of free-agent moves, but it’s one that should make the Lightning better. Kubina was a member of the Tampa team that won the Stanley Cup in 2004 and considers the city a second home.
Tampa Bay Lightning GM Steve Yzerman makes aggressive moves on first day of free agency
So, when Yzerman was told of plaudits he received for his work during the first day of free agency, he just chuckled.
“I wasn’t trying to make a statement,” he said Thursday.
But others said he did by coming out aggressively, and especially by extending St. Louis, 35, who has a year left on his existing deal and is locked up through 2014-15.
“That was huge,” said Nick Kypreos, a TV analyst with Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and a former player. “If you look at the way last season finished, with Marty saying it might be time to move on, to announce that he is staying set a tone right off that once again players are going to want to play in Tampa Bay.”
“And that,” said Scott Morrison, an analyst with CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada, “is a significant message to the hockey world.”
…
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Or you don't have any real points and you're merely a reactionary.
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not opposed to contrary opinions at all. I commended both John Fontana and Jon Jordan on their articles. Very well written and valid points. I am all about informed discussion. If you felt I was being negative towards you a couple comments up, I apologize, but I thought that was a respectful back and forth. I read the article you cited, came away unconvinced its gist was as you purported it to be and I related as much.
In regards to “Gobaby”, I have no issue with the first half of his comment, but I did have to take issue with his final two remarks, one of which was unsubstantiated criticism and the other a snide remark. If you’re going to criticize a GM by saying “several of his moves” can “easily be challenged”, at least take the time to clarify what you mean. Not doing so leaves a vague and baseless claim. Then he inexplicably threw in the Kool Aid insult. To be honest, I don’t even know what that was meant to address but it was clearly meant to belittle me.
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 5:04 PM EDT reply actions
<-- reply fail to MTBoltFan
I’m infallible after all!
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 16, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Good discussion on Gagne
I like Gagne, he’s a good all around player, especially for a former 40+ goal scorer. That still doesn’t necessarily justify trading for him and his $5.25mil cap hit. With the prior UFA and RFA signings and what it will take to fill the final open slots adding Gagne would bring the Bolts salary payout up to about $53mil. While that’s still considerably under the salary cap, as the GM do you want to have to go to Jeff Vinik in July and ask to bump the salary up to this level, for a team that played most of last year to a half empty Forum and realistically is not a cup contender? Wouldn’t you rather hold onto that card until March and be able to say to Vinik, “we’re in the playoff race but adding these two guys will add 3 mil to our payroll over the next 2 months but they could get us into the second round”? If you add Gagne now and he doesn’t click with any of our top 6 or the injury issues arise, maybe you’ve blown your wad with the owner and can’t get the trade deadline help that might be needed.
Don in St Pete
by Don in St Pete on Jul 16, 2010 8:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Very good points, Don.
Gagne does represent a gamble on several fronts (possibility of injury or lack of chemistry, etc.). No doubt about that. But the returns (increased depth, increase in Vinny’s production, playoff revenue, local relevance) are compelling too.
One problem I see about waiting to see if you are in the playoff hunt to add an available player is that the price of a playoff rental is at a premium at the trade deadline. You’re probably looking at having to sacrifice a significant piece of the projected future just to improve perhaps only marginally.
It will definitely be interesting to see how Yzerman finishes building this club. No matter how it is constructed, with or without Gagne, I will be at the Forum as much as I can be cheering the club on.
by Michael Gallimore on Jul 17, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Good Points as well
While we would be instantly better with Gagne, I think the cap hit will be too high. Here’s a sample roster with Gagne and with Downie signed @ $2mil per.
FORWARDS
Simon Gagne ($5.250m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($7.727m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.250m)
Ryan Malone ($4.500m) / Steven Stamkos ($3.725m) / Steve Downie ($2.000m)
Ted Purcell ($0.750m) / Dana Tyrell ($0.845m) / Niklas Persson ($0.550m)
James Wright ($1.005m) / Nate Thompson ($0.625m) / Johan Harju ($0.900m)
/ Paul Szczechura ($0.550m)
DEFENSEMEN
Victor Hedman ($3.500m) / Pavel Kubina ($3.850m)
Mattias Ohlund ($3.607m) / Brett Clark ($1.500m)
Mike Lundin ($0.750m) / Matt Smaby ($0.525m)
Matt Lashoff ($0.550m) / Matt Walker ($1.700m)
GOALTENDERS
Mike Smith ($2.200m) /Dan Ellis ($1.500m)
BUYOUTS: Vaclav Prospal ($1.166m) / Todd Fedoruk ($0.308m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,835,249; BONUSES: $6,025,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $9,019,751
Don in St Pete
A Flyers Fan's POV
Some points -
Simon is a great 2 way forward, not sure what the MTBolt guy was talking about and before we brought in Lappy and Betts, was a regular on our PK.
Came back from broken toes in the NJ series to score GWG’s in the Boston series, no heart transplant necessary.
Chemistry – knows Vinny and MSL from previous Olympic teams and camps. Played on a line with Vinny in previous intl comps.
Cap hit – 1 season and if Don’s #s are right, $9M is a lot of space.
Real question is what prospects we get back. I’m assuming we dont want anyone on your pro roster and will use the cap space on Turco or Theodore.
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