SB Nation mock expansion draft - who should the Lightning protect?
Maybe you picked it up through the FanShot we posted last week, but SB Nation is running a time-killing exercise: Expanding the NHL by two teams and conducting a mock-expansion draft. Last week, users had to chose the cities that would get expansion teams. This weekend they chose the names.
Well, that's done. Welcome back the Quebec Nordiques and the Winnipeg Jets. Ho-hum, yawn and all that (uncreative, to say the least).
With the choosing done, the time has come for the 30 franchises to submit their protected lists for the SB Nation mock expansion draft. Below the fold we'll talk about ground rules for the expansion draft... and ask for input from the users on who to protect and who to keep exposed.
This will seem over simple, and may need to be elaborated (meaning - ask questions when confused, and we'll pass on questions we don't have the answers to), but here are the protected-list ground rules, and the rules on drafting:
Ground rules on protected lists:
- Teams can protect either "1 goalie, 5 defensemen and 9 forwards" OR "2 goalies, 3 defensemen and 7 forwards."
- If you go the two goalie route, at least one goalie left unprotected must have played in at least 10 games last season OR 25 games in the last two seasons combined. One game = at least 31 minutes.
- Each team must leave unprotected at least one defenseman who appeared in 40 games last season OR 70 games in the last two seasons combined.
- Each team must leave unprotected at least two forwards who appeared in 40 games last season OR 70 games in the last two seasons combined.
- Players who have played in 49 or fewer games are automatically exempt and do not need to be protected.
Ground rules on drafting:
- Each expansion team selects 30 players. A total of 60 players will be selected.
- The first 26 picks are to be used on three goaltenders, eight defensemen and thirteen forwards.
- The final four picks can be used to pick a player at any position.
- Only one goalie or one defenseman can be selected from each existing team.
- Team must be compliant with the salary cap.
Unless something isn't clear, this pertains specifically to the Lightning's current roster (no prospects, no minor leaguers with very little NHL time). The Bolts have enough veteran talent to fill their exposure requirements while also keeping key assets.
So the question is - who do the Lightning protect? Do the Bolts go with the top nine forwards and expose lower line talent? Or perhaps we protect both goalies (stop laughing, people, it's an option) and can only protect 3 defensemen and 7 forwards?
Here's another question (for the good of finances): Do you take the risk and expose Vincent Lecavalier? His contract is massive, his no-movement clause limits what you can do with him (well, that and the sum of his contract)... He'd almost certainly be picked up as a PR move by Quebec... Or perhaps as a central building block for Winnipeg. Can the Bolts afford to let go one of their top two centers?
There are other things to ponder with who to protect, and other things to ask. I leave it to comments for people to do the asking as well as submit their protected lists.
We have to have our protected list finalized by Thursday. We'll publish the results in a new post by then. The draft itself is due to be held over the weekend (depending on scheduling issues with the selected GM's for each "new" team).
The floor is open, may the debate begin!
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I'd personally go with the 1 protected goalie route
I should look over the organizational roster to make sure who in teh minors would have to be protected / exposed. I think Adam Hall is on the list for players that meet the minimum number f games requirements from the last 2 seasons, I could be wrong.
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
Is there another option?
With the ground rules above, it insinuates players like Tokarski and Desjardins are not in the mix. So, dealing with the NHL roster only, I wouldn’t protect any if I could get away with it. If I had to protect a goalie, I would protect Ellis.
The top 6 forwards are gimmies. I think Smaby, Hedman, Ohlund, and Clark ought to be four of the five protected d-men.
There will be large debate on the 3 forward and one defenseman protected slots.
Lecavalier
I’m thinking that I would let go of Lecavalier for this expansion team especially the Quebec Nordiques. With the cap hit we would have enough room to re-sign Stamkos, and Gagne if he wanted to, and add another top forward in free agency next year.
Although I see promise for Lecavalier this season especially with Gagne to be his winger. But for expansion sake and for cap reasons, I do believe I would let him go anddddd…
… Give the captaincy to the heart and soul of this team. Martin St. Louis (PS I would love <3 that jersey!!)
That’s a big if on Gagne resigning. And there is no one immediately to take Lecavalier’s place ont he roster. Who takes precedence to be protected out fo the Lightning’s forwards?
There are a bunch of centers in teh Lightning organization but none of them are near top-two in quality. Only Stamkos whose game is not yet so well rounded that he can be seen as a top-line center.
There is also more to be re-signed in the off-season than Stamkos alone. The Bolts will have (another) high number of UFA’s/RFA’s.
On the PLUS side of letting the Nordiques get Vinny: It’s a big FU to the Habs who have been demanding we hand over Lecavalier since his drafting. :-p
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Aug 30, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
You would leave Lecavalier unprotected? How about the Avs just offer you a 2nd round pick and one of (Daniel Winnick, Kevin Porter, Cody McLoud, or John Michael Liles) in exchange for Vinny? Deal? Likely the same result for you with at least a 2nd to boot.
First time posting here, though I’m a bit of a lurker. I’m an Avs fan first, but lived in FL for 7 years, so a TB fan second.
by MalachiConstant on Sep 2, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha Montreal would cry :p I figured that no one could replace him right away, but if everyteam is letting some players go, almost every team will lose immediate talent. And looking for other players to step up and prospects to jump in. Would be interesting. Who would you let slip away ? (other than throwing Mike Smith under the bus) – Lets do that.
If there are players we don’t have to lose (like it’s not mandetory to expose them), then I m for keeping them (Lecavalier in this instance). But there is that debate to be had (keep or get-rid-of )
Lets assume I am going with the 1-protected goalie option. That means we have 9 forward slots. Top six gets covered — who else meets requirements (49 games OR 70 games)?:
- Nate Thompson
- Teddy Purcell
- Sean Bergenheim
- Dominic Moore
- Marc Pouliot
- Adam Hall
- Paul Szczechura
This is just going over some of the names — I haven’t put them all through the ringer (pouring over forward data and finding who met the requirements). I would let Hall go for sure. I think I would protect Thompson and Moore… and Purcell? Of these guys listed, who has the biggest upside?
Defense is a odder story. Paul Rangr doesn’t meet the protection requirements. I ought to ask if we can willingly un-protect players too.
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Aug 30, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Another point of view
In thinking about this further, I wouldn’t necessarily feel compelled to protect Vinny or Marty. While some (or most) may disagree, I believe Vinny’s contract will be too big for a newly-formed team to take on. I also believe a brand-new team wouldn’t bring in a player with only a few years left in their tank.
I like Vinny and love Marty, and their absence would be felt in the Bolts’ organization—but I think exposing them for the expansion draft would be a safe gamble.
Not sure I’d write off an expansion team picking Vinny or Marty because of age or contract status.
I’m pretty sure QC would bring in Vinny as a major PR coup. And Phil Esposito was fine with bringing in over-age players if he thought they had something left to contribute. So I wouldn’t think anyone ould hesitate over Marty.
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Aug 31, 2010 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Looks good
Yeah, those are definitely some players that could play some key roles on a team. Eventually that expansion team would need to trade/get a superstar player.
I’ve lost hope in Ranger. He hasnt played in a full year and I doubt he would be 100% even if he decided to come back by september.
Agreed, I would let Hall go for sure, he’s basically spent the last 2 years in the minors and I don’t see him making a return… I like Thompson/Moore/Purcell. They will all vital players this year in my opinion. It would be Purcell/Thompson out of the three and definitely let go on Pouliot, Hall, Szchzechure if we can only hold on to so many players.
Ranger does not meet the requirements of having played 70 games the last two seasons. He does not have to be protected. That’s someone I almost thought to put on the list of available defensemen regardless. But no need to expose him…
I’d love to keep Bergenheim around, but I don’t even think he woul be picked if exposed.
Defense is where the Lightning may be targeted the most. I’m trying to think of who to protect… Lets list everyone who has played the required 70 games over the last two years (Or 49 games in 2009-10):
- Mattias Ohlund
- Pavel Kubina
- Victor Hedman*
- Mike Lundin
- Matt Smaby
- Brett Clark
- Randy Jones
I’m not sure if the need to protect extends to guys on their rookie deals (this might effect the forward position as well — Stamkos ) so Hedman MAY not have to be protected. Still, ive of those guys.
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Aug 30, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Ranger either has to be protected or not. I’d leave him exposed.
(internally this was clarified to me by other SBN Blog managers).
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Aug 30, 2010 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
ELC doesn't matter
Just to clarify a question I brought up — Entry Level Contract status does not matter. It’s games played.
James Wright did not reach 49 games. He is exempt. Stamkos and Hedman need to be protected.
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
have to go with the 1-5-9 setup
I’d like to nail this down, input and debate is welcome:
Protected:
G – Dan Ellis
F – Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos, Simon Gagne, Steve Downie, Teddy Purcell, Vincent Lecavvalier, Nate Thompson, Dominic Moore, Sean Bergenheim
D – Victor Hedman, Pavel Kubina, Mike Lundin, Matt Smaby, Brett Clark
Though the Lecavalier contract can be seen as the albatross, the Malone and Ohlund contracts have their issues as well. We have been talking about Ryan Malone being replaced in time by Carter Ashton, or eventually demoted to third line — despite what he is being paid.
Age and contract status are my thoughts on leaving Ohlund exposed… Ranger is exposed with thanks to Ranger being MIA.
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
my thoughts exactly.....
seriously that is spot on to what i was thinking…well done
by TBL Fat Tony on Aug 31, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Exposed
I need to make a list of who is exposed, but the guys who are most obvious with this off the top of my head) are Mike Smith, Adam Hall, Paul Ranger, Randy Jones, Ohlund, Malone, Pouliot (though I am going to do more research on taking Don’s suggestion here).
There are others that may be selectable: Chris Durno, Mike Vernace, Matthieu Roy, Mike Angelidis… But I’m not exactly sure.
Harju, Persson and James Wright are exempt — unless someone tells me otherwise.
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Aug 31, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
And then who is the extra defenseman you expose? Because to keep Ohlund would mean to have six defenders and seven forwards (if Lecavalier is exposed as well as Malone)
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Sep 1, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
Except I’d expose Smaby in favor of Ohlund. Don’t wanna risk losing that guy.
I love the Lightning AND the Flyers... go ahead, preach me!
Dare to follow my childish, biased, petty and cheesy alter ego.
American Cheese, B!tch! ... #1 mission? Kill Holmgren.
I need to finalize this list today but this is a really good discussion point, Kat — Keep Ohlund and expose Smaby or try shedding Ohlund’s cap hit and keep a lesser player?
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Sep 1, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Here’s a counter point for exposing both Smaby AND Ohlund and protecting Randy Jones: Will Ohlund and Smaby be able to play in the Lightning’s Go-go-go system under coach Guy Boucher? Do they have the wheels for that?
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
Hmm… good point, John. Though, I have a problem that I never got a chance to see Boucher’s system in action… so for me it’s hard to guess whether those two would be able to play in it…
I love the Lightning AND the Flyers... go ahead, preach me!
Dare to follow my childish, biased, petty and cheesy alter ego.
American Cheese, B!tch! ... #1 mission? Kill Holmgren.
Most of us (including me) have never seen it in action.
Really, in an all-on-paper world without much thoughts to the cap or players aging, Ohlund stays, Smaby’s exposed. Malone stays, another forward is exposed… But trying to think of the cap, players aging, durability and other aspects that present dynamics besides on-paper… Well, they are complicating this exercise.
"Seen Cincuenta" -- 04.10.10 -- Raw Charge.
I like those picks
Except I would keep Pouliot over Thompson, just because he has a higher offensive upside in case of an injury to one of the top 3 centers.
Don in St Pete

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