Whose Pace is This Anyway? (11/11)

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 11, 2011 11:52 AM EST

When we last examined the Lightning record, we saw a late-October pace similar to that of four teams from last year: the Atlanta Thrashers, the Carolina Hurricanes, the Philadelphia Flyers, and the Phoenix Coyotes. Two playoff teams, two non-playoff teams, one division winner. So now, 11 days into November (Happy Veterans Day), we take another snapshot of this season and compare it to last. Who do we compare to?

The Bolts currently sit at 8-5-2, three points ahead of a point per game pace. On this day last year, only one team held a +3 against a point per game pace, and that team was also 8-5-2. Who was it? Why, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Those Bolts had scored 46 goals and allowed 45, while these Bolts have scored 46 goals and allowed 47. The difference is that those Bolts were in the midst of a 1-3-1 slide after a 7-2-1 start, while these have won three straight. But the November 11th snapshot says that the team this year is pretty much right where they were last year. We can only hope that players returning from injury can serve the same role as mid-season acquisitions of Dwayne Roloson and Eric Brewer did last year.

Other interesting notes from the 11/11/10 snapshot:

*The top four teams in the league: Washington Capitals, Los Angeles Kings, Detroit Red Wings, and St. Louis Blues. Only three of those teams made the playoffs, two won their division, and none made it to the conference finals.

*Three teams had already racked up 12 losses: New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, and Buffalo Sabres. Buffalo actually came back to make the playoffs and nearly won their first round series. And the Devils sure gave it all they had.

*Just ahead of the Lightning with a pace of +4 were the 9-5-0 Columbus Blue Jackets and the 8-4-1 Boston Bruins. One finished 13th in their conference and the other won the Stanley Cup.

*Just behind the Lightning with a pace of +2 were the Dallas Stars, San Jose Sharks, Minnesota Wild, and Anaheim [Damn Dirty] Ducks. Two of the four made the playoffs, one won the division and made the Western Conference Finals.

This post was written by a member of the Raw Charge community and doesn't necessarily express the views or opinions of Raw Charge staff.

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Every time y’all use the phrase “Damn Dirty Ducks” I get all warm and fuzzy inside. :)

And just really sobering are the Columbus and Boston stories. Two completely different trajectories that point out the difficulty of figuring out where things are going to end up.

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
Part Predator, part Lightning.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

by CAustin on Nov 11, 2011 4:28 PM EST reply actions

thought you'd appreciate it

and it just goes to show you that while we’re in the part of the season where there’s at least a little correlation between current standings and final standings, pretty much anyone can still do anything. The leaders can bomb out and miss the playoffs (as STL did last year. I’d be surprised if this didn’t happen to at least one team current looking strong—perhaps Toronto), and the dregs (with the possible exception of Columbus) can still make a run (as Buffalo did and New Jersey almost did in 2010-11).

Also interesting but probably meaningless: at this point last year, the 30 NHL teams were spread from +8 of the PPG pace (Capitals, Kings) to -6 (Devils). All four conference final participants were between +2 and +5.

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 11, 2011 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

to take it needlessly further

that +2 to +5 spread included nine teams, six of which made the playoffs, three of which won their division, and four of which made the conference finals.

Right now, that range includes 14 teams—almost half the league. Only the Pens and Stars are better. The whole league ranges from +8 to -10, but if you take out the Stars and Jackets, it ranges just from +6 to -3. Way, way, way more tightly packed than at this time last year.

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Bolts, Preds, Canes (childhood team, home state team, hometown team). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 11, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions