More On The Lightning And PDO

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 19, 2011 8:52 AM EST

I have a confession to make: I'm a stat nerd. So CAustin's post last week on PDO sparked a number of thoughts, which led to me spending my entire Sunday afternoon making pretty spreadsheets, which led to me writing 1,200 words on the current state of the Lightning and Panthers. This post was inspired by CAustin's work, so consider it a follow-up. I also deal with PDO in the article, although I'm less optimistic about what it says about the Lightning's chances this season.

Quick summary: Yzerman needs to act if the Lightning want to have any hope of saving their season. Because this current club just ain't a playoff team.

But anyway, I'm mostly writing this to share a resource. As a part of this post, I ended up creating an Excel database on the Lightning. I exported all the regular-season 5v5 statistics for the Lightning (2007-2011) from Behind The Net into an Excel spreadsheet, and then created some Pivot Tables so that you can view a player's statistics over time.

The Pivot Tables should be easy to figure out since I already made them all, so in case the document would be useful to anyone else, I wanted to share. If you don't know what some of the statistics are, I'd check out Behind the Net and this series at Arctic Ice Hockey. You have to update the 2011 stats manually as the season goes along, so I may post updates to this spreadsheet over the season if enough people are interested.

Click here to download the Excel doc.

This post was written by a member of the Raw Charge community and doesn't necessarily express the views or opinions of Raw Charge staff.

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Well, that was depressing

although it did tell us in a lot of ways what we already know about getting a goaltender and/or top four defenseman. I feel like there are signs that the offense (which seemed to be in quite a funk with that stretch of never scoring more than 2 goals on the road) is improving, with the combination of Marty’s absence and Jones and Tyrell being NHLers this time around serving to pull a lot of guys together. But it looks like the offense isn’t really the problem

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
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by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 19, 2011 10:48 AM EST reply actions

Yeah, sorry...I don't mean to be a downer.

The team definitely needs some defensive help. Ohlund going down has really put the lack of defensive depth on sharp display. Hedman is about the only one I have any real faith in.

Stamkos has been amazing to watch recently…he’s picked up the Bolts and just carried them the past couple games.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 19, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

you know what's even more amazing?

he’s doing it without his hockey god linemate. Good sign for his ability to lead the team in the future when Marty and Vinny decide it’s time to get old

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 19, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

Stammer just keeps getting better every year, which is so awesome.

I’m thinking I might tackle him in another post coming up. He’s been unreal so far this season.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 19, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for all the shout-outs, guys.

I guess I should clarify somewhat. I’m not trying to argue that the Bolts won’t improve slightly over the course of the season. I think Garon will be an improvement in the net (and Roloson has got to get better…right?), so I think the team will improve that PDO and record over the season. But…I just don’t see them as playoff contenders right now unless they make some defensive changes/improvements.

There was one power play at the end of Saturday night’s game that was really emblematic to me of all their struggles. They were on a power play, but could barely keep control of the puck or put any offensive pressure on the Blue Jackets…it was quite depressing.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 19, 2011 10:52 AM EST reply actions

you mention the power play

and while the numbers suggest the problem is on defense (and it is), I’ll note that we were able to overcome those problems last year (as you note in the article). The reason we did that is because the power play was one of the best in the league. This year, it’s average on a good day and one of the worst on a bad day. If we were to resurrect the power play, I’d be very surprised if we didn’t make a run, even without improved defense.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 19, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

I haven't looked at the numbers for that...good point.

I guess the question then becomes, how sustainable was that success? Did it stem from them controlling the puck a lot and getting off a ton of shots, or did they score a high percentage of their shots? I don’t really know, but I think that’d be interesting to take a look at.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 19, 2011 12:09 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, I don't remember

but I know there’s an ugliness this year that wasn’t present last year, so there’s at least some downtrend in shots taken. Just don’t know how big it is

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 19, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

Were any of the guys who left the team over the summer big contributors on the PP? that’s just spitballing off the top of my head.

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
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by CAustin on Dec 19, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

Bergenheim got no PP time, he was a killer

Gagne got power play time, but he was injured for half the season and the power play was still great

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 19, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

All right, just looked it up real quick.

Last year, the Bolts were right at league average at getting shots on a power play (50 shots/60), and they were juuuust barely above average at scoring (12.2% sh% vs. 11.8% average). So that was really good and doesn’t scream “unsustainable!” at me.

This season, the Bolts are still scoring at a good rate on the power play (12.4%), but their shots rate has dropped to 45 shots/60. So that’s a problem, and speaks again to the lack of puck control.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 19, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

well, at least the numbers are matching up with the eye test

now about fixing it. . .

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 19, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

I am most definitely going to explore that spreadsheet when I get a chance. I have not been looking forward to trying to put something like that together, so I’m quite happy that someone else did it for me. :) Thanks for posting it.

I agree with you on Yzerman needing to make a move, but I think he actually needs to make two: defense and goalie. And I’m not all that picky on the order in which it’s done. For all the talk of Roloson “saving the season” last year, an argument can be made (and probably will be sometime after Christmas) that it was Roloson plus Brewer that helped the team turn the corner. Roli helped on his own, but not enough.

I had a stat-specific question for you about your article, too. Can you explain why Fenwick (SOG+Missed Shots) is better than Corsi in explaining puck possession? Speak slowly and don’t use any big words.

I have to think, though, that where the Lightning are right now is really not that far off of where they were expected to be last season. Mike Corcoran tried to remind people in his radio show last week that before Yzerman-Boucher era, things were really bad all the time. There probably should have been more of an air of rebuilding last season than there was by the end. If the Bolts make the playoffs this season, I’ll be ecstatic, but all I really want in the short-term are some good personnel decisions and a chance to watch Lightning hockey like it’s supposed to be.

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
Rakastan suuria Maalivahdit Skandinaviasta

by CAustin on Dec 19, 2011 10:57 AM EST reply actions

Honestly, I'm not exactly sure about Fenwick vs. Corsi myself.

I was originally looking for Corsi team stats, but then I came across this over at AIH (and this one too). It looks to me like the Fenwick tied % is an accepted way to measure puck control, but I can’t claim to know the exact reason for choosing Fenwick over Coris. That’s something I’ve got to ask about.

I’m really interested to see the Roli-Brewer post….now you’ve piqued my interest. ;-)

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 19, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

I love that you guys are doing this all on your own. You’re all awesome. I have little interest in it myself, but I know that many people do. Tampa’s a baseball town, after all, so there are plenty of stat heads to go around.

Keep up the good work! :oD

"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." -Herb Brooks

Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Dec 19, 2011 1:12 PM EST reply actions

Tampa’s a baseball town, after all - buwahahahaha!!!!

Goalie is the biggest issue IMO, and with the way Garon has been playing I’d say it’s the back-up goalie that’s the problem. I recall the season before John Graham came here, we had Khabibulin, but he was not enough. You need a solid BU…Roloson is not that anymore. He’s toast.

As for the D men, Ohlund is probably not coming back. Double arthroscopes is a little dubious to begin with, that he’s still having isses says to me he needs more involved surgery on at least one of those hinges. At his age he could be done for good. As for the rest:

Brewer – seems to be playing better of late, but lack of scoring and some brutal turnovers have not helped. He’s not really playing like a top 2 guy.

Hedman – still makes the occasional young player mistake, but he is getting stronger

Bergeron – I’ve been very surprised at how well his defensive play has been since he got here, and feel he might be the best blue-liner so far this season overall. Sure, 22 points doesn’t hurt that evaluation.

Gilroy – also pleasantly surprised by his defensive work. Also, he seems to have the best passing ability of the blue liners

Clark – I really liked his play last season, this season not so impressed

Gervais – a spare part IMO

Kubina – he’s been pretty brutal for the most part this year it seems

So, as I see it, 4 of the 7 d-men have been sub-par so far this season, and 2 of the decent ones have had a rep of being offensive minded. Not good when paired to some poor goaltending. I’ve heard some rumors that Yzerman is working on some sort of deal for either a d-man or a golaie in the near future…

by tampa_edski on Dec 19, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

Bergeron looks good because he's facing crap opponents and almost solely playing in the offensive zone.

He’s doing fine in that role, but I don’t trust him a lick on defense. Hedman is a stud, though.

But yeah, Tampa’s a football town. I’d imagine the Rays are a close second, but man, the amount of football love in the area is nuts.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 19, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

wooooooo football!

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 19, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

Bergeron looks good because he’s facing crap opponents

Do not agree with that over-generalization.

He is not pulling consistent time against the #1 opposition line (like Heddy and Brew-bot this year, and Lundin last year), but to say the forwards he’s facing are “crap” not only minimizes the defensive effectiveness of MAB, but also degrades the ability of any forward in the world’s best hockey league.

"The Revolution will be complete when the language is perfect"
- Smith in Orwell's 1984

by MTBoltFan on Dec 20, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

Of all the Bolts defenders, he has consistently faced the weakest opponents.

Here’s a look at the quality of the competition that the Bolts’ defenders have faced. Higher numbers = better competition. The best in the league

He’s also playing frequently in the offensive zone…70% of his zone starts are on offense. He’s playing well in that roll, yes, but he is being sheltered by Boucher.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 20, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

Whoops...strike out that "The best in the league" bit...that was a thought I didn't finish.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 20, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

I wonder whether those Clark/Kubina numbers will switch with the MAB/Gilroy numbers as the season progresses

with the former two seeming to be on the downturn and the latter two getting better. Or whether they’ll just stick in their niche as offensive specialists and we’ll have to hope Clark and Kubina can hold down the fort

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 20, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, it'll definitely be interesting to see...I wouldn't be surprised if they tried it out.

That’s really where the Bolts have struggled: in the middle. Hedman has been doing well enough and Bergeron/Gilroy are filling their roles well, but everyone else inbetween has been a bit of a mess.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 20, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

I’ll be interested, too, because I don’t think it will happen. I think Boucher’s doing it that way on purpose.

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
Rakastan suuria Maalivahdit Skandinaviasta

by CAustin on Dec 20, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, it's definitely on purpose.

My guess is you’re right, that’s how he’ll continue to use them. Something’s gotta give in that middle, but there’s probably not much we can do short of acquiring someone else.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 20, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

Just a side note

I don’t really like the way we describe what kind of situations a defenseman plays in. Saying that MAB is “sheltered” makes it sound like he’s less than reliable, when it’s really that he’s being used in the role that fits his play rather than being expected to play like Hedman or Brewer. He’s up against lighter competition because he’s supposed to be in the offensive zone. He’s getting the assignments he’s getting on purpose. It’s strategic rather than contingent. If it wasn’t him, they’d have brought someone else in to do the same thing.

Now if a young player with size and strength is being eased into a bigger role, then “sheltered” makes sense as a way to describe what’s actually happening with him.

I know it’s the convention right now, but that word kind of tricks casual readers into thinking that a “sheltered” player isn’t playing as well as someone playing “tough minutes.”

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
Rakastan suuria Maalivahdit Skandinaviasta

by CAustin on Dec 20, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm...fair point.

I tend to see it a bit differently. I interpret “sheltered” to imply more that the player isn’t as good as someone playing “tough minutes”….not necessarily that they’re doing a poor job in that role. But if a defenseman is being used in such a way so that he has to play as little defense as possible and doesn’t face strong competition…I’d say that’s being sheltered. You’re protecting that player from being overmatched, and getting the best results possible from that player.

But eh, different stripes, different folks. I can see it both ways.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 20, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

I meant that there are a lot of baseball teams there – mostly minor league, I realize, but still. :oP

"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." -Herb Brooks

Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Dec 19, 2011 9:55 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks Cassie!

I really don’t know how much of an interest there is out there, but I love doing it…it’s fun regardless, and hopefully it adds something to the overall conversation about the team.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 19, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions