Random Stats and Tidbits Heading into Game 1 vs the B's
In a previous post there was mention that someone should run some stats. Well below the jump I'll mix and match some stats that hopefully lead into a good discussion.
Stat #1 - The beginner has been the winner:
When scoring 1st through the playoffs both Tampa and Boston are undefeated. This isn't too surprising considering they both swept their round 2 opponents. Likewise, both teams are undefeated when leading after the completion of the 1st period.
Stat #2 - 5 on 5 the Johnny B's are alive:
Five on Five, Boston was statistically over twice as likely to score against its opponent through the first two rounds with a 2.38 GoalsFor/Goals Against ratio. Tampa sat pretty even with their opponents at a 1.15 GoalsFor/Goals Against ratio under full strength on full strength play.
Stat #3 - Non 5 on 5 the Bruins dive:
Wow, someone needs to tell the B's that the "Special" in "Special Teams" isn't the same as the "Special" in "Special Olympics". It's a good thing they are able to outscore their opponents during 5 on 5. The Bruins have had a terrible 5.4% power play conversion ratio. And the Boston penalty kill, while not horrendous, isn't spectacular as they have been able to go man down with no goal against 80.5% of the time. Tampa's special teams are by far "mo betta" through the first two rounds having killed off 94.4% of their times a man down and converted on 26.7% of their opportunities with the man advantage.
Stat #4 - If I were Mayor of Tampa, I'd buy Boston's Mayor a round of shots:
In the "that's odd" stat column, the Bolts have won 70% of the games they were out shot in and 100% of the games where they were on the higher end of the shots total (only 1 game). Meanwhile over in Oppositesville, Boston has lost 60% of the games where the B's out shot their opponent. To clarify, when Boston had more shots on goal than their opponent they were likely to lose. And here's the kicker to this crazy land of stats, Boston has yet to lose in the play offs when being out shot by their opponents. "Psst... Hey Bolts, take your time picking your shots."
Stat #5 - Enough team stats, let's look at some chump (individual) stats:
Most Likely to Score If they Shoot:
- The player most likely to score when the biscuit leaves his stick in this series is Boston's Chris Kelly who has converted on 4 of his 14 shots for a 28.6% scoring rate so far these playoffs.
- Next up is Tampa's injured Pavel Kubina who had scored 2 times in 7 shots (also 28.6%) placed on goal before being injured by a dirty elbow along the glass in round 2.
Most Likely to Sit in the Penalty Box:
- Boston's Milan Lucic lead's both teams player's with 31 min in 11 games played.
- Tampa's Steve Downie comes in behind Lucic with 20 min riding the "You Shouldn't Have Done That" Pine bench in 10 games played.
Most Likely to Shoot (Most Shots On Goal):
- The Lightning's Sean Bergenheim takes this stat with 36 shots placed on the opposing teams goalie.
- Coming in second with 35 shots taken is Boston's concussed Patrice Bergeron. Note: Zdeno Chara is a close runner up on Boston's squad with 34 (much harder) shots.
Most Likely to Need to Nap on the Bus to the Game (Avg Minutes Played/Game):
- Boston's Zdeno Chara (28:41) and Dennis Seidenberg (28:36)
Most Likely to Score the Only Goal that Really Counts (Game Winning Goals):
- This is a draw between Boston's David Krejci and Tampa's Vincent Lecavalier as each have posted 3 goals that have sealed their opponent's fate. They also both share the lead among all NHL players in game winning goals so far in these playoffs.
Well, there's some stats to get familiar with the role players on each team.
TankerKevo Out...
This post was written by a member of the Raw Charge community and doesn't necessarily express the views or opinions of Raw Charge staff.
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Neat stats
Its odd that Tampa and Boston both play extremely well when being out shot. It definitely has something to do with gaining the lead and playing defensively. A lot of dumping in and defending the attack then being out of position and giving up odd-man rushes. Both goaltenders can handle the load.
Will be interesting to see who will be taking more shots. My assumption is Boston will have more shots on goal than Tampa.
Stamkos = Hockey God
I despise +/- and SOG more.
Corsi number and scoring chances are much better stats to record/use, IMHO.
"They are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves you flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011
and those stats are so hard to find
by Incipient_Senescence on May 13, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
True
But I still prefer them. :-)
"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011
me too
that’s why I’m lamenting that they’re so hard to find. This is the first season in which I’ve followed hockey in this much depth, and I’m quickly discovering that shots on goal is a lot less useful than you’d think.
by Incipient_Senescence on May 14, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
GWG is a useless stat….who cares if you score the 2nd goal in a 3-1 game halfwy through the first period. Now if you continue to score GWG’s with 5 mins left in the 3rd period or OT then we have something to talk about.
agreed
I know Vinny has at least one of those. Does anyone remember the situations surrounding his other two GWGs?
by Incipient_Senescence on May 14, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I can tell you with fairly high level of confidence that his GWGs were not in the waning minutes of a game (other than his OT game-winner).
"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011
I agree.
In a game where the final score is 3-2, the 1st and 2nd goals are obviously just as important than the 3rd. I guess the argument is that the 3rd goal is more timely, and certain players have a knack for timely goals. That is to say, certain players might be able to think “Defense” all game long but when a goal is needed they can switch their mindset to “Offense”, envision success, and score a goal.
But alas, it’s just a stat. As long as we realize stats only reveal past tendencies and are not prophetic of the future they can serve as a good place to set expectations.
For instance, if I know that Lecavalier has a tendency to score game winners only by looking at the previous GWGs by Tampa with out ever seeing Tampa play, when I do get to see a game and it’s 2-2 with 5 minutes left in the 3rd, it might be a good idea to watch how Lecavalier’s game changes and where he’s at, although it certainly does not mean Thompson won’t get the go ahead goal. Just makes you aware of the odds in certain situations, where to look, and what possibly to expect.
"System Trumps Chumps" - Tampa t
Great post
Based on these stats, the Lightning need to: score first, lead the game by the end of the first period, and be outshot. Also, the more time they spend on the power play or short-handed, the better.
Nitpick: in stat #3:
The Bruins have had a terrible 5.4% power play conversion ratio.
Shouldn’t that be called a percentage?
Also, as an Ottawa fan, I am greatly amused by the fact that Chris Kelly leads all players in this upcoming series in shooting percentage.

























