Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Guy Boucher: What goes up, may come down

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 14, 2011 12:00 PM EDT in Lightning Team News

The problem with having a new head coach also being a first time head coach is that no one's quite sure what to expect the second year.

With Guy Boucher, in particular, it's going to be difficult to determine beforehand how the team will do with him next season. He's been head coach of three teams, at three different levels - major junior, AHL (AAA, for you baseball-minded folk), and now the NHL - but he's only been head coach for one of those teams for more than a single season.

Which is a bit misleading. One might think that he was fired from those positions than hired but others after reading that he doesn't have much of a track record in regards to coaching. However, as Lightning fans already learned, he's been so successful as a first-time head coach that he's moved up the ranks quickly.

However, with the one team he was head coach of for more than one season, the second season was absolutely dismal. It was actually worse than any season that the Tampa Bay Lightning have ever played. Which is hard to wrap your mind around when it comes to Guy Boucher.

Expectations will be high for next season, and for good reason, but here's something to keep in mind. It may not turn out so full of rainbows, sunshine, and unicorns as people might think. There is one little itty-bitty little blot on an otherwise ideal early coaching career.

Guy Boucher's career coaching record looks like this (care of hockeyDB.com):

Season	Team	League	Type	GP	W	L	T	OTL	Pct	Result
'06-'07	Drummondville Voltigeurs	QMJHL	Head	70	37	26	0	7	0.579	Lost in round 2
'07-'08	Drummondville Voltigeurs	QMJHL	Head	70	14	51	0	5	0.236	Out of Playoffs
'08-'09	Drummondville Voltigeurs	QMJHL	Head	68	54	10	0	4	0.824	Won Championship
'09-'10	Hamilton Bulldogs	AHL	Head	80	52	17	0	11	0.719	Lost in round 3
'10-'11	Tampa Bay Lightning	NHL	Head	82	46	25	0	11	0.628	Lost in round 3

Take a good hard look at the '07-'08 season and that winning percentage of 23.6%. The Lightning's worst season was '97-'98, when the team went through three head coaches in one year, and they still had a 26.8% winning percentage - which is surprisingly better than Boucher's second year with Drummondville. Even under Barry Melrose and Rick Tocchet, the Lightning won more than 40% of their games in both of those two seasons.

Will this happen to the Lightning next season? That's really hard to say. I have no idea what happened during that season in the Q with the Voltigeurs, and factors outside of coaching may have figured into that 51-loss season. Also, Boucher simply hasn't coached for long enough to see if that dismal sophomore year as a head coach is a trend or an aberration. So right now, it's just one big question mark.

But it's definitely something to keep in mind going into the season this October.

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None of the top scorers from Drummondville Voltigeurs in 06-07

Returned in 2007-08, and the club made several trades (including for MVP and Senators prospect Mike Hoffman) during the season that would effect them next season, which they won the President’s Cup. So if next season is bad, the following season Tampa wins the Cup. The NHL also cuts the season by two games.

by Alexander Calloway on Jun 14, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

Again, there’s not enough information to tell if that’s a trend or an aberration – so even if they do poorly next season, that’s no guarantee they’ll win the Cup the season after.

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 14, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

While one season is not statistically significant and not indicative of an overall “sophomore slump,” it does get one worrying.

However, my sense is the player turnover from one season to the next in The Q—or any other major junior league, for that matter—is high, and therefore contributes significantly to the overall quality of a team, and by extension its position in the standings.

All that said, I could be completely wrong, too.

"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011

by MTBoltFan on Jun 14, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting, but...

…big picture, that season looks like an aberration.

I have no idea what happened during that season in the Q with the Voltigeurs, and factors outside of coaching may have figured into that 51-loss season.

I suspect the answer lies somewhere in your own speculation.

by Michael Gallimore on Jun 14, 2011 12:23 PM EDT reply actions

Oh, I realize that factors outside of coaching likely played a part, but since I don’t know what those were I can’t say how much was coaching and how much was everything else.

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 14, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

should we not be above box score and stat watching, was the author too lazy to dig deeply and go posit reasons why

by Danny Dodge on Jun 15, 2011 2:29 PM EDT reply actions

Or, maybe I just didn’t have time to research anything properly because I have a day job. Crazy, I know. It’s not like I get paid for this, you know.

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 15, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

so youd rather paste your name to some slop and get it published, for publishings sake, then take the time and do some sembalnce of research. talk to gary shelton over at the sptimes about that, and yes he sadly gets paid

by Danny Dodge on Jun 15, 2011 3:38 PM EDT reply actions

You may want to stick around Raw Charge for more than a week before you start criticizing others’ work.

by MTBoltFan on Jun 15, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah, I’m sorry that I’ve failed to meet such high standards and expectations. And that I’m not even bettering people who get paid to write for a living! Oh dear! I guess I’ll just have to go sit in the penalty box for two minutes and feel shame. ;o)

You’re more than welcome to show me up and write a proper story. Who knows? We might even front page it for you. Now wouldn’t that really put me in my place!

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 15, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Allow me to help

When you learn to spell correctly and use proper grammar, people may take you more seriously.

In the spirit of, how did you put it? Oh, yes: constructive criticism.

“so” and “talk” should be capitalized because each begins a sentence. You’re missing an apostrophe in “youd” and “publishings.” You misspelled “semblance.” Proper names are always capitalized, and you’re missing a period at the end of your concluding sentence.

So you’d rather paste your name to some slop and criticize others? Okay. Just so we know.

by MTBoltFan on Jun 15, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

you roped us in with the headline, but then it was of little substance just substantiate your claim, just constructive criticism

by Danny Dodge on Jun 15, 2011 3:55 PM EDT reply actions

Dude.

Have some respect. If you think you can write better, then have at it. John and Cassie are practically begging members of the RC community to contribute to the overall product.

by MTBoltFan on Jun 15, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

MT, it’s okay. I’ve had worse thrown at me, and he has a legitimate complaint. Although, why it’s worth the time he took out of his day to write three comments about it, I have no idea. If it’s not worth reading, then it’s not worth commenting on, right?

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 15, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

here, does this salve your ego, that was the most insightful and greatest article i ever read. pure brilliance, keep up the great work. i

by Danny Dodge on Jun 16, 2011 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

No, because that’s untrue. You don’t have to like what I write – that’s fine. And admittedly, this isn’t my best writing. However, you don’t have to be nasty and insulting about it. I welcome constructive criticism, so long as it’s respectful. Using words like “lazy” and “slop” isn’t exactly going to make me take your criticism seriously, even if you really do think that’s precisely what it is and how it was written.

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 16, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions