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Question of the Week: What position should the Lightning take with their first round pick?

LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 26:  Stevie, and former Lightning draft pick Brock Beukeboom at last year's draft. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Well, the 2010-2011 NHL season is officially over, and the summer begins.  A summer full of more questions than answers.  Especially for the Tampa Bay Lightning

As you likely know by now, the Lightning have 12 contracts expiring this July 1st, most notably Steven Stamkos (RFA) and Eric Brewer (UFA).  In fact, those two contracts in particular were mentioned by GM Steve Yzerman as his two top priorities in the free agency race

After a surprisingly successful first campaign by Yzerman and crew, the pressure to maintain that success from fans of the team might actually approach the overwhelming pressure Stevie puts on himself.  One way to relieve some of that pressure -albeit moreso down the road than the present - is to have a successful 2011 NHL Entry Draft, which leads us to our question of the week: 

With so many free agency questions looming, how would you like the Lightning to handle the 2011 NHL Entry Draft?  What position should the Bolts draft with their 27th overall pick?

Answers from the staff after the jump.  Let's hear yours in the comments.  And in case you missed it, here is last week's question.

Star-divide

Clark Brooks

I still think the biggest need to be addressed is defense and my wish list has four names on it: Adam Larsson, Jonas Brodin, Dougie Hamilton and Nathan Beaulieu. Unfortunately, I don't think any of them will be available when it's the Lightning's turn to pick, but I'll be watching to see if something weird happens and one of them slips through the cracks.

Cassie McClellan

If Steve Yzerman is going to stick to the plan he mentioned when becoming GM - you know, drafting and promoting from within to become the Detroit Red Wings of the East - then I would like to see him draft another defenseman. The Lightning have a little depth at goaltender right now in the minors with Cedrick Desjardins and Dustin Tokarski, and they also have some depth at forward with the likes of Blair Jones, Dana Tyrell, and James Wright, but they're painfully thin at defense. They may be weak at wing but they're deep at center, and centers can always be moved out to wing, even if only temporarily. Defense can be questionable with the guys on the Lightning right now as it is, and it doesn't get any better with Norfolk (or wherever their AHL team will be next year). In regards to defensive prospects in general, it pretty much begins and ends with Victor Hedman. And looking out into the future, that's a rather scary thought since one guy can't do it all himself.

Nolan Whyte

Since the Lightning's first pick is way down at the 27 slot, I don't think there's any need to try and zero in on a particular position. Anyone taken that low will likely be in the system for a few years before he sees NHL ice, especially with the "patient development" philosophy of Steve Yzerman.
 
The Lightning appear to have a wealth of goaltending prsopects, but goalies take a long time to develop into starters, and are generally hit-or-miss as prospects. I wouldn't mind seeing team pick another goalie like Christopher Gibson, a British Finn (Finnish Brit?) playing for Chicoutimi in the QMJHL. But really, I'm happy with using the reliable old cliche: choose the best talent available, regardless of position.

John Fontana

This draft -- position wise -- compares directly to the Lightning's draft years of 2003-2005:  Late 1st round / early second round selections.  The draft talent is not supposed to be that deep this year...  That's fine, that's good, that's great.

The Lightning need system depth, though.  That's the universal truth with every draft year.  They need prospects and talent for the future, that's how it has to be with every sports organizaiton, after all.

The thing is, I really don't want them to draft a big-risk/big-reward player, or worse yet:  ignore the development of the players.  That's what happened with the likes of Mike Egener, Andy Rogers and Vladmir Mihalik who were picked in 2003-2005.  All three defenders never materialized into anything more than minor-league roster fillers.

Another reason I bring up the draft years of 2003-05 is because I think the Bolts should go defense with their first overall pick, again.  While the team could use depth everywhere, it's on D that the team needs to nurture.

Matt Amos

I personally wouldn't mind seeing the Lightning start in the first round by drafting a defender, then a goalie in the second round, and alternate between the two for the entire duration of the draft.  Only half joking. 

In all seriousness, I'd like to see Stevie go after David Mucil of Vancouver of the WHL.  He's a big boy (6'3'') and from what I've read, isn't afraid to get his hands dirty (83 PIMs).  After watching all the late hacks on the Lightning goalies this year, I'm all for a guy who will box guys out.

Poll
What position would you like the Lightning to draft with their 27th overall pick?
Forward - To hell with defense, we'll just outscore everyone!
11 votes
Defense - Defense wins championships!
110 votes
Goaltender - If the NHL ever adopts a rule that you can pull an attacker for an extra goalie, you can never have enough.
17 votes

138 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 21 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I agree

It’s very difficult to see who Tampa gets with number 27.

by Alexander Calloway on Jun 16, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

So you guys don’t think the Lightning should have a plan and draft according to their needs. Okay. They have very little depth at any position except for center and goalie. Isn’t taking the best available, not matter what, what got the Lightning into this position in the first place?

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 16, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty sure it was bad drafting that did it

But I don’t understand why people don’t see that prospects can be traded for players. If the Lighting’s depth at center gets better they can trade that depth for needs like goaltending and defense. See what the St. Louis Blues did with Erik Johnson? The Blues depth at defense is so good, they traded for what they needed, a forward in Chris Stewart. The Lighting can do the same.

by Alexander Calloway on Jun 16, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sort of defeats the point of drafting, doesn’t it? I thought that a team was supposed to draft players in order to build a future team from prospects, so you don’t have to trade much. What’s the point of drafting a prospect if you’re just going to trade for some veteran in the end? That makes no sense to me.

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 16, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

What?

The point of a farm system is to make the NHL team better right? Whether that player makes the team better by playing on it or is an asset in a trade that makes a player better. That’s the point of drafting, right? Making the team better.

by Alexander Calloway on Jun 17, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

We’re agreeing, but not exactly on the same stuff. All I’m saying is that drafting the “best available” player isn’t necessarily a good idea. I think a team ought to draft according to their needs in order to build a team from within, and trading should be reserved as only a last resort move. Otherwise, there’s no point in drafting anyone – no matter how good the player might be. If a team can’t use someone in their system, then why bother?

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 17, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Drafting off of need isn’t necessarily good either. The players you draft are 17-18 years old, so its going to take years before their even ready to play in the NHL. That and needs change fast in the NHL. Today Tampa might need goalies and defensemen, but if the Lighting get a few good defensemen and a goalie in free agency, suddenly your need is full. And what do have? A huge surplus of players playing a position you already have full.

by Alexander Calloway on Jun 17, 2011 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see it as "no plan."

I see it as “terrible drafts have made our minor league talent level pathetically thin.”

I think they’ll go for a d-man, but they may go for the best talent available.

"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011

by MTBoltFan on Jun 16, 2011 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

But how does a draft become terrible for a team? By picking the wrong guy? Well, what if the wrong guy is the so-called “best available”?

Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.

by Cassie McClellan on Jun 16, 2011 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Picking the wrong guy can do terrible things for a team

It’s indicative of a team misjudging talent and/or being desperate. While any GM can draft the wrong player (see Kevin Grimes, drafted by Pierre Lecroix during his tenure in Colorado for example), I think Yzerman and his staff are knowledgeable and savvy enough to avoid most pitfalls.

From 2001-2007, the Lightning players drafted have played 16 games—total—in the NHL. Doesn’t exactly show a lot of success. The draft picks that haven’t worked out have all been later 1st round or 2nd round picks. That tells me the previous Lightning regimes had difficulty recognizing legitimate talent after the cream of the crop.

So, I guess what I’m saying is Yzerman knows what talent is out there and how that talent may develop. He will, I believe, perhaps go for the player he has highest on his board if his targeted player(s)/position(s) are off the board. The Lightning development teams need the shot in the arm in whatever position they can get it.

"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011

by MTBoltFan on Jun 16, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't take it from me

Here’s a quote from an article on the Bolts’ web site (available here):

Even though there might be some areas of need in the Lightning’s system, Murray said you cannot think that way when you are about to make a pick.

"If you take the best player and they all turn out good, then whatever you have a surplus of you can use to trade for whatever your need might be," Murray said. "You’re picking the guy that you hope develops into the best player. Everything in hockey is about projection."

"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011

by MTBoltFan on Jun 16, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

HTML fail

All of that is a quote from the article, after my introductory first line.

"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011

by MTBoltFan on Jun 16, 2011 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really like Musil if he's available at #27

The Lightning system is terribly short on development-level defensemen that actually have skill and can skate. Sure we have plenty of d-men, but not many that would adapt well to Boucher’s system.

That said, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Yzerman go for a winger, as we’re thinner there than on D.

"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011

by MTBoltFan on Jun 16, 2011 6:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, this poll is lopsided

Obviously, if someone really high on the board at another position is available and all the best defensemen have been scooped up, that changes things. But first impression is go D.

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Go Bolts! Out West, go Preds! Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Jun 16, 2011 8:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Rule of thumb

Draft the best available player. That being said if you get down your draft board and there isn’t much seperating a couple of prospective picks at your slot the need factor comes into play. We have a number of prospective top six wingers coming into the system in Ashton, Panik, Connolly and Harju. Our defensemen at Norfolk and in juniors and the collegiate level are mostly all prospective 5-7 guys with the possible exception of Gudas, Gotovets and Witkowski, We need some high end d talent in the systems and there are around a dozen defensemen that are thought to be top 4 talent, available in the first 2 rounds. Many of those, Larson, Hamilton, Beaulieau, Siemens, Morrow, Murphy and Oleksiak will have been chosen before our number is called. We may have a shot at Kefblom, Brodin, Musil or Percy. If uber-talented Thomas Jurco is available at # 27 though you have to take him over any of those because he will be a prolific scorer if not a superstar. Barring one of the talented ones dropping into our lap I would predict Yzerman would target one of the defensemen I mentioned or a potential power forward type.

Don in St Pete

by Don in St Pete on Jun 17, 2011 8:17 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Great analysis! I need to change my vote now :)

by KubKub on Jun 17, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think this is exactly my feeling

although you expressed it the opposite way. basically, if ability/potential/expectation is equal and need is unequal, go with need. If ability/potential/expectation is unequal, take the guy you expect to be a star.

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Go Bolts! Out West, go Preds! Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Jun 18, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

This posts

Makes anything I would’ve posted repetitive. :)

you're not defending him are you?
are you his mom?

by toppleprone on Jun 7, 2011 9:43 PM EDT

by SnipeShot on Jun 18, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Goalies. Too risky for first-round draft picks.

You can draft them, but it seems more and more like you need an older (35+) goalie to win divisions and conferences. The question is how do you draft a goalie knowing he’ll take on average 12-15 years to go from “stops pucks” (average) to “stops pucks and scoring chances” (outstanding)?

A first-round draft pick is usually better spent on a forward if you need scoring, or a defenseman if you have scoring and want to work on preventing the other guy from getting into position.

I like goalies. I always wanted to be a goalie as a kid. (My dentist laughed it off, but his wife encouraged me since all she saw was dollar signs. I should have asked her to spot me the funds since my folks couldn’t even afford league fees.) Drafting a goalie in the first round isn’t a good idea unless you find some kid who’s got the youth and speed combined with a precocious treachery that usually only comes with old age.

Let's Go Blues!
Support your local NAHL team. Seriously.

by Paperwork Ninja on Jun 21, 2011 12:08 PM EDT reply actions  

For every Jack Campbell, there are many more Rick DiPietros.

"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011

by MTBoltFan on Jun 22, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

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