Can the NHL benefit from the NFL and NBA lockouts?
Hockey fans usually fit into one of two groups:
- Group A fans are generally provincial thinkers who define themselves as traditionalists. They have little regard for any teams or cities outside of the homes of the vaunted Original 6.
- Group B fans love hockey in almost any form and can be downright evangelical in their desire to share their joy with others.
If you're a member of Group B (first off, bless you), you might be looking at the lockouts currently in effect with the NFL and NBA as a huge opportunity for growth for the NHL.
Unfortunately, you're probably wrong.
In a weird twist of cosmic fate, the labor agreements between two major sports leagues and their players expired at roughly the same time and both leagues responded by locking the players out. The NFL has had a lockout in place (off and on, mostly on) since March 12 and the NBA's began on July 1. As a result, both leagues are currently dormant, aside from ongoing legal wrangling, and both face a very real possibility of having truncated (late starting) seasons with the doomsday prospect of no season at all.
Of course, hockey fans of all persuasions are regrettably familiar with these circumstances, having witnessed contentious labor negotiations leading to a lockout that forced the cancellation of the entire 2004-05 season, what should have been the Tampa Bay Lightning's victory lap. It's tempting to engage in a little shadenfreude and say "now you'll see how it feels, suckers". It's also tempting from an opportunistic viewpoint to think about how the NHL can capitalize on this and bring in thousands of new fans. If both the NFL and NBA are inoperative, when the World Series ends in late October, the NHL will be the only game in town, so to speak. It's not unreasonable to expect suddenly idle football and basketball fans to embrace the NHL with open, eager arms. And once they do so, they'll learn to love the game as much as we do and become hockey fans for life, right?
That's a nice theory, but it's probably not going to happen. Consider...
- The NFL and NBA won't be around but football and basketball will - Fans of their favorite games won't have to go far to find suitable replacements. Unlike college hockey, which gets virtually no national media coverage whatsoever, college football and basketball actually get MORE exposure than their major league counterparts. It's a lot more likely that fans of a particular sport will turn to the college alternatives rather than embrace a whole new game and league with which they're unfamiliar.
- Angry sports fans are angry sports fans - Think about how upset you were when the lockout of ‘04-05 was taking place. They, the league and the players, broke your heart. You probably reached a point where you said, "Screw ‘em; I don't even care if they reach an agreement today and play games tonight." You may have even sworn you'd never watch another game ever again. It's okay, that's an understandable reaction and we're not here to judge. The point is, if you think back, your anger at them, the league and the players, probably wasn't restricted to the boundaries of the NHL. You were fed up with being a pawn in a war between billionaires versus millionaires. At that exact point, how receptive would you have been to suddenly becoming passionate about games played by a different group of owners and players who may eventually break your heart again?
- Media coverage WILL change, but it won't be different - You might be thinking, "What about all that extra time that's suddenly going to be available on the cable sports channels?" Well, they may show more NHL game highlights on their news shows but that's about it. The time they would have spent discussing X's and O's of what happens on the field and courts will be spent reporting on what's taking place in meetings and trials involving the NFL and NBA. Whether they're playing or not, those channels are beholden to those leagues and the fans know it. As far as more NHL games being broadcast? You could see NBC drop in a couple more "game of the week" telecasts, but only if both lockouts keep their leagues dormant through the holidays. Rather, you should just expect to see even more college football and basketball (see above).
- What about sponsors? - Actually, this is one area where the NHL could cash in. For the most part, all the leagues already share slices of the big corporate sponsor pies (automakers, fast food chains, beer and soft drink manufacturers, etc.). If those sponsors get rebates from the NFL and NBA because they're not playing, they may be inclined to spread some of that around a little bit. Or not. A more likely scenario would benefit individual clubs on a local level. In markets where an NHL team has to compete with an NFL and/or a NBA franchise for local sponsors (restaurants, banks, furniture stores, etc.) those NHL teams will suddenly have much easier access to those dollars.
Of course, withreports starting to come in that the NFL will have an agreement within the next two weeks and the NBA being months away before anybody develops a sense of urgency over losing games, this could all be moot by the time pucks drop in October anyway. Still, with all that said, there's no good reason that the NHL couldn't or shouldn't launch some creative marketing campaigns. They could catch some eyes that might not normally be looking. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, right?
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I think the main reason why hockey began to lose popularity after their lockout
was due to the end of their agreement with ESPN and had to go to Versus. Honestly, as much as I like Lightning hockey, I rarely pay attention to other teams in the league outside of the playoffs. That is due in part to the lack of games and highlight coverage on ESPN and the fact that Versus always finds a way to annoy me. The only way I see the NHL really capitalizing on other lockouts is if a similar situation happens with the NBA (No way it happens to the NFL). I don’t know the details of any contracts, but either way I doubt that happens because the NBA, thanks to college basketball, has a stronger backbone than the NHL.
The NHL may gain a few more fans and a bit of increased coverage, but that will be about it.
Great post. A few thoughts came up as I was reading...
Steve Lepore of PucktheMedia.com has an article on a possible new deal for college hockey on Versus, if anyone is interested. “College Hockey Super-Conference to Head For VERSUS?”
If the NFL doesn’t play in October, there might be a few more tickets sold/TV games watched in the southern hockey markets, but these would be to people who already know about hockey rather than to completely new fans. It takes great marketing, including word of mouth from hockey fans, to bring new fans into the fold. It’s a good opportunity for marketing from the NHL, true, but it also takes marketing from the local franchises and local fans to make it happen, And that’s unlikely to be a concerted or consistent effort.
My advice for spreading the hockey gospel is to take your friends to a game, explain the things they ask about, and just have a good time. That’s what brings them back.
SERIOUSLY GUYS, STOP TRYING TO TRADE PEKKA!!!
Part Predator, part Lightning.
one important question
there’s hockey outside of manhattan?
"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx
In Prust We Trust
"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.
A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep
Follow me @8kpower
Whose blog do you think you’re on, anyways? :o|
Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jul 11, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
the Blueshirt Banter southern chapter
"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx
In Prust We Trust
"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.
A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep
Follow me @8kpower
So…Battery, then?
Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jul 11, 2011 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought it was
There’s a football league other than the SEC?
Heel for school, Vol for life!
Go Bolts! Out West, go Preds! Southern hockey solidarity!
by Incipient_Senescence on Jul 11, 2011 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
What’s this “S-E-C”? The only NCAA football conferences that I know are the Pac-10…er 12, now, I guess…and the Big 10. Rose Bowl, baby!
Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jul 11, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
please
the Big Ten (+2) isn’t worth anything to anybody. Except for the comic relief when Ohio State plays an SEC team in a bowl game.
I actually do respect the Pac-12, but “there’s a football league other than the SEC, Big XII, and Pac-12?” doesn’t roll off the tongue quite so well. Regardless, the target is the Redskins, not the Huskies.
Heel for school, Vol for life!
Go Bolts! Out West, go Preds! Southern hockey solidarity!
by Incipient_Senescence on Jul 11, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I only ever cared about the Big Ten because they’d play the Pac-10 champs in the Rose Bowl. I knew about the SEC & the ACC, since that’s all the national media ever really talks about. But you know how it is. If all you hear about are certain teams (Yankees or Patriots, anyone?) or conferences / leagues (NBA?), you tend to tune them out.
Win or lose, I'm proud of these guys.
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jul 12, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
The NBA and NFL lockout will definitely help hockey ratings and introduce more fans to the game. Not too many people know how gritty hockey is and I think a lot of fans (with nothing else to watch) will fall in love with hockey and continue to watch even when the NBA and NFL lockout is over.
ESPN was more likely to have Boxing and other sports then hockey games. Versus does a better job in my opinion.
If #26 doesn't get retired. I'm switching teams.
Ugh...
I hate even the thought of another NHL “work stoppage” Which makes it hard to do the ol’ Nelson point and laugh.. “hahaa” …Even though I think for the most part, the whole lockout thing is ridiculous. Like politics, rich people arguing about money is hard to resinate with the working class, whose only escape is indulging their favorite sport/team.
As far as if it will help the NHL at all… I have a hard time believing that just because their is a lockout for your sport, that the average fan will start following another sport. Not to say it doesn’t happen… but when it does, it more probable that it was due to a spark that was already present in some form or another(from a friend or special event). What is more likely.. that they’ll stick within the comfort zone and just keep updated on “lockout news and updates”
Another huge factor is where the person lives, more likely to start following another sport, if their local team is successful in that sport. For example, the only Florida team I’m a fan of really, is the Bolts. All my other teams are Michigan related.. so if god forbid there was no hockey, it’d be hard to just watch football, because I’m a Lion’s fan, haha. At least the Wolverines are starting to look better…
So... if that was just the beginning? Can't friggin' wait to see what's next!! A HUGE Thank You to Mr. Vinik, Steve Yzerman, Guy Boucher & the whole damn Lightning team/organization!! 100% Continued support and respect.
by Let's JOE WINGS-BOLTS on Jul 12, 2011 10:25 AM EDT reply actions
As far as football goes, it kind of died for me in the past two or three years.
College and pro games just became bland, and I only carved out time for games when Southern Illinois played. Even then it was usually just a radio feed so I could do other stuff while listening to the game. After last year, it really died off for me. When you start watching the games more for the beer commercials than the game, you know your love for the sport is gone.
Basketball hasn’t been a going concern for me since 2nd grade when I played one year in a YMCA league.
Baseball and hockey are pretty much the only two sports which I’ll take time to fully devote my attention to the games, whether juniors/ prospect leagues or minor and major leagues. Baseball has enough proponents, so I make sure to take people to hockey games instead. The result? My youngest cousin who never liked team sports before suddenly likes team sports and now both my parents are wondering when they can get season tickets for the local juniors team. (That they’re also both now feeling guilty that they never let me play youth league hockey is also a huge bonus.) Spreading the word about hockey helps the NHL a little and juniors a lot.
As far as work stoppages go, though, there’s also a significant number of people who will look at the football and basketball leagues and use the uncertainty there as a reason for not getting involved with other sports. They won’t want to invest their time into something that might follow other industries into a similar stoppage. So it’s a big risk.
Should the NHL go after these sports fans who don’t have a professional game to watch? Yes. The risk is worth the reward for them. Will they have to work extremely hard to not cause any strikes or lockouts once the collective bargaining agreement ends? Yes. Handling the CBA issue with skill and a swift resolution that benefits owners and players alike will be the biggest test of the NHL’s management in keeping new fans. It will build trust among the fans that yes, a bunch of millionaires and billionaires can sit down and argue over money calmly and rationally and come to some kind of agreement that generates both goodwill and revenue. That will help to ensure that people who are hooked stay hooked.
Now, if the NBA and NFL work out their problems by the end of July, then we’re back to step one when attracting new fans.
Let's Go Blues!
Support your local NAHL team. Seriously.
by Paperwork Ninja on Jul 12, 2011 10:50 AM EDT reply actions
The NHLPA's hiring of Fehr concerns me
However, I believe both the owners and the players realize the damage another lockout would create. At least that’s my hope.
This really is—assuming the NFL and NBA lockouts are lengthy—a golden opportunity for Versus, the league, and the NHLPA to gain momentum in the U.S. market.
"[The Lightning] are uncanny. When they want to get a goal, it's like they just snap their fingers or hit a button. They just dial it up. You can see it. It's like they flip a switch. When they are down, it's just like they think, 'we know we are going to score.' I don't know what it is, it leaves [the opposition] flabbergasted." - Mike Knuble, 3 May 2011
























