Team Rankings at Goaltender by The Goalie Guild

Justin Goldman has begun a new feature over at The Goalie Guild that ranks NHL teams by organizational depth at goaltender. He has the Lightning at number 9, which is a great spot considering the anxieties we've been having since Desjardins left. Keep in mind this ranking takes into account the depth at all levels from NHL starters to draftees. Goldman posted both the rankings (link in the title above) and an explanation of how he arrived at them.

10 months ago CAustin 14 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

A little more on Goldman's rankings

Goldman posted a long response to a question about the rankings on his website and in there was the following statement concerning his thinking:

So for a team like Tampa Bay, they end up on the Top-15 in part due to the value/talent of Tokarski and Janus. Pat Nagle is a very good talent as well, and so is Riku Helenius. Combined with the very productive coaching of Frantz Jean (he completely rejuvinated Smith’s career and did a great job with Roloson, Tokarski, Janus), they have a steady combination of Coaching, Opportunity (Roloson is on his way to retirement, Garon only signed for 2 years, Smith + CD gone), and Talent/Value.

I report a lot from him mostly because he’s the only analyst I’ve found who does this sort of thing in a public and accessible manner (he tweeted this link, for instance). He points out that there is a lot of interpretation going on and that he expects some dispute over his final ranking. What do you guys think?

Hope is never wasted.
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Jul 24, 2011 7:17 PM EDT reply actions

Good analysis

…but my concern is the long-term depth and quality of the netminders in the system. Sure Tic is good…but he’s not shown a consistent ability to handle the pressure of being an AHL #1, let alone someday handling the NHL #1 duties. I saw Janus a couple of times in Norfolk last season, and once he settled in to the AHL from the ECHL, he was good. I’m pretty sure the jury will be out on Nagle and Dixon for quite some time.

Ultimately, I see the Bolts trading for some depth or trading for an “on the cusp of the NHL” goalie in the next year. Lindback? As a Blues fan, I would love to see the Bolts trade for Jake Allen, but that’s not going to happen.

As with all things from the JM—he’s probably already got a plan. It will be interesting to see what he does.

"The Revolution will be complete when the language is perfect"
- Smith in Orwell's 1984

by MTBoltFan on Jul 24, 2011 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions

#goalienamefail

Wilcox. Not Dixon.

"The Revolution will be complete when the language is perfect"
- Smith in Orwell's 1984

by MTBoltFan on Jul 24, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions

My issue with trying to think about the goaltending situation here is that almost every scenario is based on two assumptions—first that Roloson will retire at the end of this season, and second that Tic needs exactly two seasons to be ready to be the starter. I’m iffy on both of those, very much so on the second, and I think the timing’s off regardless. The way I see it, unless one of the two AHL guys gets really good really fast, we’re either renting a vet next summer and pushing Tic and Janus back one year, or we’re doing as you suggest and bringing in someone who’s at the NHL level this year to become the “goalie of the future.” Either way, the opportunity Goldman’s figuring in seems overstated to me.

Lindback’s the real deal, though young, but it’s unlikely that Nashville will trade either of the goalies this season, as there isn’t anyone ready to step in. It’s a timing issue. But there are a number of very good young guys who could fit and who might be made available through a trade. Bachman, Lack, Bernier, possibly even Schneider or Rask. That’s just off the top of my head.

Hope is never wasted.
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Jul 24, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I do think Roli will retire at the end of this season. At the very least I think the team needs to plan on it.

On Tic, he shows a lot of promise—but the road to disappointment is paved with the careers of goalies that showed a lot of promise (yes, I’m talking about you, Roman Turek). I don’t want it to be so, but Tic may be in that category. We don’t know.

In the meantime, we have zero NHL-ready goalies “waiting in the wings.” That’s a significant issue to me, and that’s why I would love to see Lindback, Allen, heck, even Schneider come in if they can be had for the right price. My dream goalie pick up? Jack Campbell, hands down.

"The Revolution will be complete when the language is perfect"
- Smith in Orwell's 1984

by MTBoltFan on Jul 25, 2011 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m 80-20 that Roli retires next summer, maybe 85-15. Its a small chance but a chance nonetheless. If anyone can pull it off, it’s Roloson. His work ethic is incredible and his style is very efficient. You absolutely have to plan on him retiring, but there’s still a small chance he’s the veteran rental in 2012-13.

I have heard extremely good things about Tic from multiple sources. I obviously don’t get to watch him as much as I’d like to, but I haven’t read any scouting report that say he won’t be legit. My fear is not that he crashes and burns but that he just improves a little, not good enough to promote or bad enough to hold back. You can’t guarantee that he’ll achieve his potential, but I get the feeling that Plan A for the franchise is Tic or Janus and Plan B (or C or D) is bringing someone in starting next summer to play 4 or more years.

I agree. Campbell ain’t going nowhere for now, which is why I picked Bachman out of the Dallas stable. Just as ready but with nowhere to go.

All in all, I think the timing is really really off.

Hope is never wasted.
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Jul 25, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

I think the timing is really really off.

What do you mean?

"The Revolution will be complete when the language is perfect"
- Smith in Orwell's 1984

by MTBoltFan on Jul 25, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Mostly just that there’s gonna be a gap of one to three years where there’s no one ready to take over followed by a time when both Tokarski and Janus will be ready (cuz they’re both likely to be in Norfolk together) but no vet to guide them, followed by another period with no one on the cusp. We’ll lose at least one of the guys (Tokarski or Janus) we’ve invested in and are counting on and won’t be able to move Nagle or Wilcox up until there’s room somehow, so we end up counting on someone developing faster than expected. Losing Desjardins threw the whole depth chart out of whack.

If we go the bring in a Lindback/Allen/Campbell/whoever type route, sign him to say 4 years, it gets a bit more spread out, relieving some of the pressure, but you still get Nagle ready either before you can use him or after (assuming a regular progression one more year in ECHL, three in AHL) depending on what length of contracts DT and JJ sign in the upcoming seasons.

Keep in mind that I’m from Nashville, and we simply don’t bring in outside goaltenders here. The “outsider (FA or trade)” thing seems odd to me, not because it really is but because I’m not used to it. My analysis presumes that the guys in the minors are intended to be used in Tampa and not traded.

Hope is never wasted.
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Jul 25, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Our concerns are the same

I see a significant gap between the Now and the Future, too. That’s why ultimately I see the Bolts bring in a goalie to bridge the gap. If that gap-filler is high enough quality to serve as the legit #1 for a while, so much the better.

I don’t think our JM is averse to bringing people in if they’re the right fit for the team—whether it be goalie or forward or scout.

"The Revolution will be complete when the language is perfect"
- Smith in Orwell's 1984

by MTBoltFan on Jul 25, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I looked it up and the last time Nashville brought in a goalie from outside (I.e., someone we didn’t draft) was Dan Ellis in 2007. Yeah—Dan Ellis. So….. we have reasons not to do this. :)

"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Jul 26, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I actually like Dan Ellis.

"The Revolution will be complete when the language is perfect"
- Smith in Orwell's 1984

by MTBoltFan on Jul 26, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

(shudder) He has crapped all over both of my teams, and now he plays for the Damn Dirty Ducks. …………

I may not be rational on the subject. Sorry. If I really try very hard I can be fair to Ellis and note that he a) put up pretty fair numbers in the playoffs, and b) held the fort down enough that Pekka could become PEKKA. But there was drama over Peks, drama over Twitter, and drama over Hiller. I just can’t like the guy, either on the ice or off.

"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Jul 26, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I became sold when he came in for Smitty last season. Smith started versus Crosby and the Pens and gave up three goals in 12 minutes. Ellis came in a pitched the shut-out, and Marty scored the game winner halfway through the third.

Ellis seems to be the type of goalie that needs a challenge to be successful. If he’s not pushed, he won’t excel—and he wasn’t pushed here because Smitty and he are best buds, apparently.

"The Revolution will be complete when the language is perfect"
- Smith in Orwell's 1984

by MTBoltFan on Jul 26, 2011 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Trust me when I say that Ellis is perfectly capable of multiple meltdowns of the 3-goals-in-12-minute variety. In game 1 of our series with Anaheim is a case in point. Not that its always that way. Just that you never know when disaster will strike. And apparently being pushed by Rinne for 3 years wasn’t enough for him to become consistent. I’m sorry. I’m rambling again.

"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Jul 26, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions