Who should the Bolts sign this summer?: UFA D-men and goalies
This summer, Tampa Bay Lightning General Manager Steve Yzerman is likely to be looking to fill in the holes on the defense and in the net. It's unclear exactly what sort of players he's going to be looking for, but "young" and "proven" are likely to be pretty high on his checklist. Going by the numbers from capgeek.com, as of June 15 the Lightning will have 14 players under contract for 2012-13 with a total cap payroll (full bonuses are included) of $45,263,583.
So, where does that leave the team? It's hard to say, but fun to speculate. I have to start, though by laying out my assumptions:
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Same salary cap of $63.4 million. It's likely to go up; it may go down. We just don't know. That means that there will be approximately $19 million available.
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Ohlund will play in 2012-13. Again we just don't know. If he retires the team gets $3.8 million; if he's still on Long-Term Injured Reserve, the team can get a credit for what they spend above the cap to replace him.
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Cory Conacher will be signed for about the same amount as Brett Connolly.
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The team won't spend a whole lot more than 10% above what they are spending now on the 4 forward other spots that will be open, whether its on extensions/re-signs or on new guys: I budgeted $8 million, which gives about $1.8 million cushion above that 10% increase.
This leaves $11 million for 3 defensemen and a goalie. Right now, I'm just looking at UFAs, because there's no personnel trading involved. It's all about the money. These are just suggestions, of course--really just a starting point for the discussion. They're not in any particular order. Make a case for your choices, either ones I've suggested or someone I've forgotten, in the comments.
Defensemen:
3. Jason Garrison, Florida Panthers, 27 years old
- Current cap hit: $675,000
- 2011-12 numbers: 42 GP, 11 G, 7 A, 7 PPG, +6, 24:12 ATOI, 14 PIM, 97 shots
- Career numbers: per game: 0.12 G, 0.17 A, 0.40 PIM, 1.52 shots, 20:57 ATOI
- Notes: Started out as a shutdown defenseman for the Panthers, but has been moved into a more offensive role lately and has done well. One of the more underrated d-men out there.
2. Dennis Wideman. Washington Capitals, 28 years old
- Current cap hit: $3.9M;
- 2011-12 numbers: 40 GP, 8 G, 20 A, 4 PPG, -3, 24:07 ATOI
- Career numbers: per game: 0.13 G, 0.34 A, 0.69 PIM, 2.03 shots, 23:13ATOI
- Notes: now that he's an All-Star, his price will go up. Logs a lot of minutes, offensive upside. Lots of Caps fans seem to find him frustrating, though--some bad along with the good, as it were.
1. Ryan Suter, Nashville Predators, 26 years old (because we can still dream, can't we?)
- Current cap hit: $3.5M
- 2011-12 numbers: 42 GP, 5 G, 20 A, 3 PPG, +8, 27:00 ATOI, 26 PIM, 82 shots
- Career numbers: per game: 0.07 G, 0.36 A, 0.78 PIMs, 1.54 shots, 22:24 ATOI
- Notes: projected cap hit $7M; mobile, smart, power play quarterback; great vision, eats lots of minutes, great leadership; has only been negative in +/- once in his career (-16 in 2008-09), Olympic silver medalist, All-Star Game in 2012.
Goalies:
3. Al Montoya, New York Islanders. 26 years old
- Current cap hit: $601,000
- 2011-12 numbers: 17GP, 6-5-3, 2.46 GAA, .917 SV%
- Career numbers: 42GP, 18-11-8, 2.38 GAA, .920 SV%
- Notes: Currently dealing with a concussion issue after a collision in December. It's hard at this point to know what kind of goalie he'll end up being with only 42 NHL games played over three years. As part of the three-headed goalie monster the Isles have to tame, though, it's possible that he could be pried away at a reasonable price.
2. Tomas Vokoun, Washington Capitals. 35 years old.
- Current cap hit: $1.5 MM
- 2011-12 numbers: 29 GP, 16-10-0, 2.66 GAA, .912 SV%
- Career numbers: 661 GP, 278-277-76, 2.56 GAA, .917 SV%
- Notes: I'm throwing this one out there because I can see a scenario where it makes sense to the front office: if they have a great deal of faith in Tokarski after the end of this season. Vokoun would be a short-term rental, putting the problem off for another year or two, but there's little question that on sheer ability alone he's better than Garon. I'm guessing that Vokoun would really, really like that price to go up over the summer, but he might be gun shy this time around.
1. Josh Harding, Minnesota Wild. 27 years old.
- Current cap hit: $750,000
- 2011-12 numbers: 17GP, 8-4-2, 2.15 GAA, .932 SV%
- Career numbers: 100 GP, 36-43-6, 2.57 GAA, .918 SV%
- Notes: Harding is an injury risk. In the five years since he made the jump from call-up to backup, he's never played more than 29 games in a season. He's had hip trouble, knee trouble, and a concussion. He missed all--I repeat, ALL--of 2010-11 with a knee injury. He does have the talent to be an above average goaltender, though, if he can prove durability. Plus, that injury history is likely to keep his price reasonable. In fact he made $1.1 million in 2009-10 and $1.2 million in 2010-11.
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You beat me to it
I was going to gin up an article like this—but I was going to wait until March…
Some thoughts:
- I’m not sure if I like any of the three goalie choices listed. What about Bernier or Schneider? Plus, I’ve got a soft part of my heart for Cedrick “The Entertainer” Desjardins—and he’s a UFA next year, too.
- I think all three d-men will be out of the Lightning’s price range. I was hoping for Georges, but since he re-signed with Montreal, that hope’s dashed.
- Ultimately, depth on the blueline will prove, I think, the most difficult to fill.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
It keeps coming up in game threads and post-game comments so it seemed like it was time.
Nothing against Desjardins but (a) he’ll be an RFA, and (b) there are a lot of guys who have a lot more experience than he does. He has only played 14 games with the Lake Erie Monsters this year. While the number’s he putting up are outstanding in those games, it screams small sample size. For context, he played 24 games with Norfolk last season. Bearing in mind that whatever guy they get will need to play about 35+ games, experience is a plus.
Schneider will be an RFA, so I didn’t deal with him. Bernier is signed until 2013. Anyone who wants to make a case for one of those two would need to consider who the Lightning would send back.
I have some hopes that Garrison would still be affordable. Don’t know what Florida’s willing to pay for him, though.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
I didn’t realize Bernier had signed…I stand corrected, Your Goalie-ness. :-)
Garrison is starting to really come alive in the Sunny Southland. Gotta think he’s going to ask for a raise if his play continues.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
Act Now!
Why wait? Act now! Get yourself this shiny, hardly used Josh Harding today! If you act within the next seven days, we’ll pay the shipping! It’s a great deal at twice the price! BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! If you call within the next ten minutes, we’ll through in your choice of one Greg Zanon, Marek Zidlicky, or Mike Lundin, ABSOLUTELY FREE!
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Oh, and...
The $1.1 million and $1.2 million contracts were when he was an RFA. Those were the qualifying offers. Wild had no choice. This offseason, when he went UFA, they could lower the cost a bit.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
It’s highly unlikely that the Lightning are going to act until the summer. If they wait, they only have to pay the $$ and not give up any personnel.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Absolutely
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
You guys don’t like Harding and Lundin, really?
Following the Lightning from Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil.
Let's. Go. BOLTS!
by Rafael Amarante on Jan 16, 2012 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
Harding and Lundin?
yeah, I’d take that.
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
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by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 16, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
Sign me up for that, too.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
I’m getting worried about all the Wild fans trying to pawn Harding off on this team. And you notice they never say what they want in return. Just “here, have a goalie.” Is there something wrong with the guy?
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Not at all
In fact we love Harding, but we also have a HUGE logjam at goalie (Matt Hackett has proved he can back-up Backstrom) and he is a UFA. As a fan base here, we are sick of losing out pieces for nothing (Gaborik). He is also the ONLY piece we have that is worth anything and we need lots of stuff. I have made a case for Malone going the other way as we have a dire need for a power forward and he seems like the most expendable top-six forward that makes sense. We don’t need Purcell (we already have a few of him).
Garrison would be a nice addition, but it’s almost impossible the Cats don’t re-sign him with all the cap space they have. Wideman, I wouldn’t be sad if the bolts signed him, but I don’t know… He’s better at offense (he’s a very good PP defenseman, very good) than defense, I just feel that’s not the kind of Dman the Bolts need right now. He should be expensive, may get 5M on the FA market. Suter would be a dream, he’s a top 5 defenseman in this league, IMO.
Johnny Oduya is a defenseman I really like. He’s not that big, but he can play a physical game, is fast and makes smart decisions on the ice. I don’t have his turnover numbers, but every time I watched him play, he look very, very solid.
Oduya makes 3.5M against the cap. His stat line for this season is: 43GP, 2 G, 9 A, 11 P, 22 PIM, 3 +/.
I also like Matt Carle (a lot). You know, the Dman we had for 12 games and then traded away to get Downie and Steve Eminger (who also good and we also traded away and also is a UFA after this season). He’s an inteligent Dman with good offensive upside but also very responsable defensively. And he is entering his prime.
Philly is pursuing a defenseman to help their playoff run. They’re with the “win now” mode turn on and in turbo. They’re trying to acquire Suter. If they do, they will re-sign him and the cap space to re-sign Carle is gone and Matt is gone in the offseason. That’s where Stevie Y enters the scene (hehe).
Carle makes 3.437M against the cap. His stat line is 43 GP, 4G, 18 A, 22 P, 22 PIM, +2 +/.
Following the Lightning from Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil.
Let's. Go. BOLTS!
by Rafael Amarante on Jan 16, 2012 9:58 PM EST reply actions
Carle was not given a chance
I liked him from his San Jose days.
"We're fighting, You can't say we weren't fighting." - Guy Boucher after Tampa Bay Lightning loses third-period lead again in 4-2 defeat at Ottawa Senators.
In case anyone wants to take a look at the lists:
UFA defensemen: http://capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2012&team_id=-1&position_id=D&fa_type_id=2
RFA defensemen: http://capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2012&team_id=-1&position_id=D&fa_type_id=1
UFA goalies: http://capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2012&team_id=-1&position_id=G&fa_type_id=2
RFA goalies: http://capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2012&team_id=-1&position_id=G&fa_type_id=1
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Garrison will likely be resigned by Florida. If Suter does not get re-signed I believe it will be a money issue and should not pursue him. It is likely if Lidstrom retires that Detroit will over a heavy contract. Wideman sounds like a decent addition IF Washington does not resign him, with cap issues being a potential problem they might have to let him walk.
Vokoun sounds like short-term solution to let our prospects develop further. Harding is a low-risk high-reward but we would need to proven backup ready to start and prepared to play 30-40 games a season. Montoya is not a bad goalie and could flourish with the right system but I think we should be pursuing Bernier or Schneider like MTBoltFan was saying.
I too have a soft spot for the Cedrick, he did exactly what was asked and was close to a shutout in his first NHL game. He had poise and looked excellent I think its a no brainer to re-sign him now that he’s healthy again.
UFA’s are obviously the easiest way to patch things up, it might not be that easy though.
"We're fighting, You can't say we weren't fighting." - Guy Boucher after Tampa Bay Lightning loses third-period lead again in 4-2 defeat at Ottawa Senators.
UFAs are the easiest to write about, not necessarily the best solution. If you want Schneider and Bernier (or Desjardins), who would you give up to get them? What’s your proposal?
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
(also, irrelevant note, but If Suter doesn’t get re-signed in Nashville it’ll be a competitiveness issue, not a money issue. It’s irrelevant b/c he’ll get the $7 million+ either way, but Nashville’s new owners say they have the $$ for him and Weber at $7 million or so each.)
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
The question for Nashville is: Can you have 21M (or more) attached to 3 players (all defensive players) and still put together a team capable of contending?
Following the Lightning from Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil.
Let's. Go. BOLTS!
by Rafael Amarante on Jan 16, 2012 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
we do kinda already have a backup who can play 30-40 games
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 16, 2012 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
Other UFA Dmen I would like the Bolts to take a look at
Name – Current Cap Hit
Johnny Boychuk – 1.875M
Carlo Colaiacovo – 2.125M
Steve Eminger – 0.8M
Brad Stuart – 3.75M (yeah, like Detroit is letting him go)
Hey, IS, what’s your take on Tim Gleason?
Following the Lightning from Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil.
Let's. Go. BOLTS!
by Rafael Amarante on Jan 16, 2012 11:07 PM EST reply actions
there's a lot of buzz that Gleason might be taking off at the trade deadline
Philly being one oft-rumored destination. I’m still trying to sort out a lot with the Canes defensemen, there’s been so much injury mixing and matching. Gleason seems to be the best known of the bunch (he’s been around for a while and wears an “A,” but it looks like Faulk and Harrison have been the ones getting the toughest defensive assignments over the last couple weeks. Which doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, since Harrison has a two-way contract and is just returning from injury, but that’s the way it’s been. I haven’t really noticed a lot in the way of howlers from Gleason though, and from a defenseman, that’s a good thing. Sorry I’m not more helpful there.
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 16, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
How does the draft look this year?
Strong? Weak? Is their an elite talent like a Stamkos?
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
I have no idea – I’m almost afraid to even look.
"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." -Herb Brooks
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jan 17, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Heavy on defensemen, actually. (8 of top 10 in NA skaters, 4 of top 10 in international). Also Malcolm Subban is the top-ranked goalie prospect. (Yes, he’s the brother of PK). I’ve heard lots of raves about this draft class, but the rankings will change of the next 6 months.
NHL draft rankings (developed by CSS): http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=76670
The Goalie Guild’s draft report: http://thegoalieguild.com/prospects/draftreport/
The Scouting Reports preliminary rankings: http://www.thescoutingreport.org/category/draft-rankings/2012-draft-rankings/
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
how fortunate
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 17, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Heavy on defensemen, sure…but they look like a crop of OFDs rather than TWD or DFDs like we really need.
TSN’s preseason ranking is here.
Craig Button’s latest list (from yesterday) is here.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
okay, I don't know what those acronyms mean
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 17, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
They're abbreviations, not acronyms (just sayin')
Offensive d-man, two-way d-man, defensive d-man
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
that explains why I didn't get them
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 17, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
2 way defensemen
Matt Dumba is supposed to be an offensively minded d-man with a mean streak, and will hit anything that moves. He’s a year or two away though Ryan Murray is supposed to be the most ready to step into an NHL lineup next season.
Don in St Pete
That may be, but at 5’11" and 175, there’s no way he plays in the NHL in his first year. He’s got serious growing/bulking up to do.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
Still a potentially good get. Have to improve the long-term depth, too.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
I don’t disagree, but I would prefer someone who could step in and contribute immediately—we certainly have the need.
Dumba is too small to be a 6th or 7th d-man. He’d get killed.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
After watching Ryan Ellis (5’10" and 179lbs.) turn Wayne Simmonds into a spinning top, I’d have to disagree there. You may have heard this before but size doesn’t matter as much as what you do with it.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Look at the circumstances, though
Ellis executed perfectly an open-ice hip check. I’ve no problem with that.
You’re taking the singular situation to explain a bigger sample size. Sure, open-ice hip checks look great on the highlight reel, but they mean nothing to the wear-and-tear involved over an entire 82-game season.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
Granted Ellis hasn’t been up in the big leagues very long, but he’s hardly the first small defenseman to perform well against bigger guys. Frankie Bouillon 5’8", MAB 5’9", Toby Enstrom, J-M Liles, Kimmo Timonen, Lubomir Visnovsky, Ian White all 5’10". Brian Rafalski was also 5’10" (and probably still is.) Bulk can come as a guy grows. The question of being able to play 82 games goes for all draftees.
I’ve watched Ellis and that one hit was not an anomaly in his game. He’s extraordinarily good at using body positioning and lower body strength to play against bigger guys. He’s got the ability, regardless of his height and weight. Dumba may or may not be one of those guys who can do that. But it is possible for “smaller” d-men to play in the NHL and not “get killed.”
The issue of timing or what the Lightning’s long-term vision of what kind of defensemen to draft are altogether different questions that the question of whether Dumba’s size rules him out of an NHL career. I’m keeping an open mind on him.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Yes, smaller d-men can play in the NHL (add Marty to the list of the player you mentioned). Many of them do quite well.
Dumba is not like any of the players you listed—he’s a hitter. That is why I think he’s going to get killed. Either he bulks up or he changes the way he plays—he’s not going to be very successful hitting the likes of Getzlaf, Ovechkin, Ryan Boyle, or Orpik for very long.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
Frankie Bouillon hits. But then he’s 198 lbs, not 175. Ryan Ellis will hit if he has to, but the big deal is that he’ll take a hit.
All I’m saying is don’t write him off just because of his size. Especially for a team whose strategy seems to be smaller but mobile. And what I’ve read about Dumba indicates that he has the skating and puck-moving capabilities that Yzerman and Boucher like.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Bouillon has also never played a full 82-game season (though he was close in 09-10)—and that’s even after weighing 20 pounds more than Dumba.
I’m not saying he should be written off—I merely pointed out he has some growning to do if he wants to keep his game the same.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
I'm really more interested in a defenseman who will be lights out in four years than one who will step in immediately next year
too many holes to plug for us to be legit Cup contenders next year, so let’s just set a target and find the guys to make us contenders then
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 18, 2012 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
When you figure out how to predict a player’s ability in 4 years, make sure you get a copyright and/or trademark: you’ll make a killing. :-)
Seriously, though, I do think the team would be better served by getting a d-man that can contribute straight-away. Barring that level of quality (Hedman going #2 overall in ’09, for instance), then there will be plenty of quality when the Lightning take the podium—even if the players are undersized.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
haha
never said I could do it, just that it’s the goal of the evaluation of draft prospects. whether or not they can contribute next year is of secondary importance
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 18, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

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