The Tampa Bay Lightning, while probably not playoff bound, could become the spoilers
Here's a scary thought. What if the season is mimicking games? That is, slow start, spotting the rest of the conference the equivalent of two goals, only to come back and get into playoffs at the very last minute?
Think about that for a minute. If you condense the season down to a game, then 27 games and one period equals one period of a game. (Playoffs could be considered overtime.) And since the Lightning finished up Game 48, that would put the Lightning at about eight minutes left in the second period. And being nine points out of eighth in the standings, well, you could call that being down by two or three goals, right?
To take the analogy a step farther, you could look at injuries as penalties. And, in this case, with so many guys having been out, the Lightning will be coming back to full strength pretty soon after the All-Star break. Sure, they'll still be a man short on the bench with Mattias Ohlund likely missing the rest of the season, but it's better than having a bunch of guys stuck in the penalty box, right?
Okay, I realize that this is a stretch. But my point is, the Lightning have just won their last four games - and two of those were on the road. And they're finally starting to click together. Their luck is just starting to turn around, or so it seems.
It also helps that Steven Stamkos is projected to score 55 goals. And Martin St. Louis is starting to score goals again with two goals in his last two games. And what can you say about Teddy Purcell during that last road trip, scoring three goals in those two games?
Then there's Vincent Lecavalier, who is projected to score 33 goals this season. But, he also has a seven-game point streak going on right now. On top of that, he's got a point in all but one game in the month of January, and scoring six goals during that time. A large part of the Lightning's recent turnaround is due to the play of their captain.
Getting a bunch of players back from injury is going to give them a serious mental boost. There are reports that Victor Hedman may return next Tuesday (31 January) against the Washington Capitals, and that Ryan Shannon is expected back soon after as well. Unfortunately, Dana Tyrell is out for the rest of the season due to knee surgery, and Ohlund may not play at all this season. So it's definitely still not all sunlight and roses for this team just yet.
The odds that this team makes playoffs are still awfully slim, however. It's not impossible, of course, but it is extremely unlikely that it will happen. But that doesn't mean it wouldn't be a great ride if they gave it a serious try. If nothing else, they can be the spoilers of the Eastern Conference, and what Lightning fan wouldn't enjoy that spiteful role?
We'll have to see if the All-Star break helps or hurts them, which is perhaps their biggest question right now.
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Anything's Possible
‘09-’10 Flyers: midseason record: 19-19-3, 41 pts, finished 41-35-6, 88 pts, seventh place
‘09-’10 Canadiens: midseason record: 19-19-3, 41 pts, finished 39-33-10, 88 pts, eighth place
‘10-’11 Sabres: midseason record: 18-18-5, 41 pts, finished 43-29-10, 96 pts, seventh place
‘05-’06 Devils: midseason record: 18-18-5, 41 pts, finished: 46-27-9, 101 pts, third place
‘06-’07 Lightning: midseason record: 19-20-2, 40 pts, finished: 44-33-5, 93 pts, seventh place
‘08-’09 Blues: midseason record: 16-22-3, 35 pts, finished: 41-31-10, 92 pts, sixth place
‘07-’08 Capitals: midseason record: 15-21-5, 35 pts, finished: 43-31-8, 94 pts, third place
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
Granted, the comeback at this point would be nearly historic. For a refresher, at mid-season, the Bolts were 17-21-4, 38 points.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
Like I said, not impossible, but also not very likely. ;o)
"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." -Herb Brooks
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jan 26, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
so basically, two teams have pulled that kind of comeback?
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 26, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Put another way...
If the playoff threshold for points is assumed to be 90pts, the Bolts need 1.29 points per game (44 points needed, 34 games remaining). If the Bolts lose 10 more games, the points required per game (to reach the 90 point threshold) climbs to 1.83.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
Why do you assume 90? Last season the lowest point total that made the playoffs was 93.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Average
Between last year, and all the other seasons from the “it’s possible” post of mine, 90 seemed like a nice, round number. Ultimately, it was arbitrary with some historical precedent thrown in for some validation.
I did it on the quick; my intent wasn’t to perform a complete statistical analysis of the number of points needed to make the playoffs in any given year because of the rise of El Nino or the discovery of Thor’s Hammer in the NM desert by S.H.I.E.L.D. agents.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
I was just asking your reasoning. sheesh. :P
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
James Mirtle agrees with you, MT, that they can lose only 10 games; while he also agrees with Clare that it’ll take 93 points.
"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." -Herb Brooks
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jan 26, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
For 93 points, that means 1.38 points per game. If they lose 10 games, that cranks the points per game need to 1.96. They can only afford 1 OTL if they lose 10.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
but the OT loss is not included in the 10?
So you really mean they can lose 11, as long as one is in OT
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 26, 2012 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
Yes.
By losing 10 games, Mirtle and I both assume regulation losses.
Put yet another way, if the Bolts finish any worse than 23-10-1, they’ll be golfing in May.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
so I was going to go back and have an updated playoff chance post over the All-Star break
but it turned out pretty short
never been done. Or at least never been done since we got rid of ties. Nobody’s come back from as far as we’re back right now. Not any of those teams you listed. Not anybody. The ‘09 Blues are the only ones who made the playoffs after a start as poor as ours (they were 19-23-4 at this point, two points behind our pace), but the current Leafs record (9th place in the East) would’ve put them in 5th place in the ’09 Western Conference. Which is to say, although the Blues record was worse than ours, they were chasing a bunch of teams whose records are much, much worse than Florida, Washington, Toronto, and Winnipeg.
That ‘08 Washington team that was so bad at the halfway point? They’d moved above .500 and gotten within two points of the division lead by the end of January.
Even the finish by last year’s Devils team, historic as it was, would only be enough to put us at 93 points to end the season, firmly on the bubble.
So when I said not to consider getting back into the playoff hunt without a seven game win streak? Might want to change that to twelve. Or fifteen.
If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 26, 2012 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
In the case of the 2009-10 season
it helped that the bottom-half of the Eastern Conference completely sucked that year.
6. Boston – 39-43
7. Philly – 41-41
8. Montreal – 39-43
Which, of course, led to all three of those teams kicking their opponents ass in the first round of the playoffs, and the Conference Final being a 7 vs. 8 matchup.
But I digress. The lower half of the East actually is weak again this year, so there is a chance of history repeating itself there.
Now on Twitter @Carcillo_
http://twitter.com/#!/Carcillo_
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 27, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Odds they claim Nittymaki by noon??
Can’t hurt, really
by HockeyAndLoathing on Jan 26, 2012 10:43 AM EST reply actions
Zero.
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
I’m not against them taking a flyer out on Frank… But lets put it this way: A waiver claim is a hell of a lot more likely thank trading a top-6 forward (that one Tampa Bay sports anchor wanted to do) to get him.
Of course, that trade idea by said anchor was a poorly constructed / reasoned plot to begin with.
Typing is an adventure, and reading should be, too!
Sasquatch, Yeti, The Loch Ness Monster, Evan Oberg - legends that may or may not be real
Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Jan 26, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
As I’ve said before, since it’s waivers, it’s not a horrible idea. But he’s not better than Garon or Roloson. He could be luckier, but he’s not better.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Not with that team defense that they have.
"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." -Herb Brooks
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jan 26, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
And kind of a wild bet to pay him $1M for the rest of the season in the hopes the bounces go his way and he stops better than 89.9% of the shots he sees.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
He does have an insanely good – and completely unreasonable – record against the Southeast Division, tho.
"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." -Herb Brooks
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jan 26, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
It happened on Twitter
And it’s not like this guy tweets much… but I caught him the other morning and… well, damn…
Typing is an adventure, and reading should be, too!
Sasquatch, Yeti, The Loch Ness Monster, Evan Oberg - legends that may or may not be real
Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Jan 26, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
Difficult means the same thing as impossible to those who quit trying.
And I don’t think those boys have quit trying.
That said, it would almost literally set a record if they did it.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Oh, no. They definitely haven’t quit trying. Which is pretty awesome, in my opinion. That’s how it should be – you compete until the season’s over, no matter what. :o)
"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." -Herb Brooks
Raw Charge, an SBN Tampa Bay Lightning community. Follow me on Twitter: @dagmar27.
by Cassie McClellan on Jan 26, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
Isn't that what I said?
"Freedom is the freedom to say two plus two equals four. If that is granted all else will follow."
- Smith in Orwell's 1984
Oh. look. There. Right there. I think they call that “agreement” or some such.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Hopeful signs on the injury front
Hedman is one of nine players out of the lineup because of injuries, but he could be one of four ready to return next week. Lightning coach Guy Boucher said RW Ryan Shannon, out since Dec. 21 with a knee injury, will be ready, and C Tom Pyatt (lower body) and LW Ryan Malone (upper body) should be, as well.
via Erlendsson, http://www2.tbo.com/sports/bolts/2012/jan/24/1/bolts-notes-d-hedman-aiming-for-jan-31-return-ar-350946/
That leaves Wyman, Hall, MAB, Tyrell and Ohlund
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
Can we bring back Smith and play him instead of Shannon? Please?
Following the Lightning from Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil.
Let's. Go. BOLTS!
by Rafael Amarante on Jan 26, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
Hope Wyman comes back soon. Anybody know how he lacerated his pink finger? Kid looked damn good to me, in the few games I’ve seen. He sure can fly out there, reminds me a bit of Darren Helm at that age.
"WINGnut--BOLThead"
Let's GO..Wings, Tigers, Lions, Wolverines (oh my!) & Bolts!!!! (RIP Cory Smoot aka Flattus Maximus of GWAR)
by Let's JOE WINGS-BOLTS on Jan 28, 2012 5:07 PM EST up reply actions

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