It started innocently enough, but eight years later I'm still doing this blogging thing. That's a testament in itself as bloggers tend to last only so long; giving in to burnout, giving up on their hobby, or finding something better to do.

But really, eight years later.... Thank you to those who have read my work, those who continue to read my work, and those who have sworn off my work as utter drivel (you know who you are, and I'm thankful I don't know who you are).

Special thanks to long time associates Eric McErlain, James Mirtle, Mike Chen, Jes Golbez; the bossman at SB Nation, Tyler Bleszinski; Cassie McClellan, Meredith Qualls, Nolan Whyte, the rest of the Raw Charge crew (Clark, Matt, Dani, Clare, Tina), and too many bloggers to note (those on SB Nation and elsewhere).

At any rate, I decided to throw together some numbers to compliment that span of time since I opened up shop (on Boltsmag.com) on February 10th, 2004.

Eight Year numbers:

Tampa Bay Lightning record: 267-238-70 with 1 tie
Number of Stanley Cup Championships: 1
Number of Head Coaches: 4
Number of General Managers: 3
Number of ownership groups: 3
Number of different uniform/logo designs: 3
Number of different roster players since Feb 10, 2004: 146
Number of players from the 2004 roster who remain: 3*

*Pavel Kubina left and came back

Those are hockey stats, it'd be interesting to have blogging stats, now wouldn't it? I must apologize because I can't easily find every time I've been mentioned on Puck Daddy, accurate visitor numbers for Raw Charge/Boltsmag combined, and exact number of stories I've written in that time (approximately 2230 - or 279 a season).

(Editor's note: Promoted from the FanPosts)

As teams in the NHL begin serious pushes and posturing for playoff spots or tee times at their nearest golf course, focus begins to shift to the annual NHL Entry Draft. Recently, NHL Central Scouting released an updated ranking of the players eligible for this year’s draft, and three draft experts from NHL.com posted their mock draft results.

About the only players who are guaranteed to not be available at the Lightning’s current position are the top two players heading into this year’s draft, Nail Yakupov (RW, Sarnia [OHL]) and Ryan Murray (D, Everett [WHL]).

This short article is caveated with the understanding the draft position of the Lightning could change drastically up or down from their current position (#7).

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In this, the third installment of "Do They Hate Us?" I’ll update the statistics for the Lightning this season through the end of January. If you’ve not read them before, please take a moment or two (or 10 minutes if your read as slowly as I). You can find the first edition here, and a deeper look (as well as a look at the penalty statistics through the end of December 2011) here. As I started the last edition of "Do They Hate Us?" I will start this edition.

To re-orient you to the terms and statistics I used in this edition of the DTHU. First and foremost, this issue and continuing topic makes generous use of Power Play Opportunity (PPOP) statistics. For PPOP, only time in which one team is at least one man up counts as PPOP. To make the point more clearly, there is a notable difference between PPOP and the number of times a team’s opposition is penalized. The difference between the two is the number of matching penalties (either of the minor or major variety) and misconduct penalties (because they do not cause a Power Play in and of themselves).

Also worth noting is the difference in tallying a double-minor penalty. The NHL scores a double-minor penalty as two PPOP, but only one penalty against the offending team. An example of this is the Lightning's game versus the San Jose Sharks earlier this year. In the 3rd period, Michal Handzus received a double-minor for high-sticking--giving the Lightning two PPOP and giving the Sharks one penalty tally. Additionally, PPOP is counted for even the smallest amount of man advantage (i.e. 3 second 5-on-4 advantage counts as a single PPOP).

As always, numbers below zero (-3, for example) are in the Lightning’s opponents’ favor, whereas positive numbers are in the Bolts’ favor.

First, let’s look at the penalty statistics through the month of December (the table above). Red blocks denote season lows, and green blocks denote season highs in the respective categories. After finishing November with a penalty differential of -20, the Lighting continued their previous pace of taking penalties at a greater rate than their opponents on any given night, reaching season lows in game penalty differential (15th January versus the Penguins) and season penalty differential (21st January versus the Coyotes). Shifting over to the PPOP columns, we can see the PPOP differential consistently in the opponents’ favor (PPOP differential less than 0), the exceptions being the 5th, 12th, 13th, 17th, and 24th of January. The brightest spot so far this season was the game against the Blue Jackets on the 24th of January, where the Bolts had the advantage of +2 in PPOP differential over the team from Columbus. However, that was barely noticeable in the context of the whole season’s PPOP differential, where the Bolts hit their season low twice (-28, on 21st and 31st of January).

So, if we look at the season thus far (in the graph below), we find clearly the Lightning had a bad stretch from mid- to late-October, and second bad stretch that has lasted from Thanksgiving through the current stretch of games. Also included in the graph below is an orange trendline. It has, if ever-so-slightly, a positive slope—meaning brighter days should be ahead—but not much brighter.

Turning our attention to the league-wide penalty statistics, the table below shows each team and where that team ranks in the league from most penalized to least. The column to the extreme right of the table shows the increase in total penalties for each team. On the bottom of the chart, I’ve calculated the league average number of penalties (just under 226.5) and total penalties. On the right hand column, I’ve also calculated the average increase per team in penalties from the end of December (the last DTHU? Article)—just over 47 penalties. Also on the right column are red and green highlighted boxes—denoting the 5 most penalized teams in the month of January (red boxes) and the 5 least penalized teams in the month of January (green boxes). While the Lightning don’t fit into either category, they are the 7th most penalized team in the NHL in the month of January—a fact that will not improve the number of PPOP for the Bolts.

Let’s turn now to how the Lightning’s penalties compare with the team’s opponents thus far this season. The table below shows the opponent, number of games played against that particular opponent, and breaks down penalties and PPOP and the team differential of each of those categories. The last column averages those differences out over the span of all the games played this season between the Bolts and each particular team. On that column, the team with which the Bolts have the worst PPOP differential is highlighted in red (the Panthers) and the team against whom the Lightning enjoy the biggest PPOP advantage is in green (the Jets). In many ways the troubles for the Lightning at the beginning of the year is the story behind the differential with the Panthers. In particular, the home and home series in early October did the Lightning no favors—and those effects statistically are noticeable even this late in the season.

In summary, this season for penalties has in many ways mirrored the play of Our Team—started off on a bad note, improved slightly, and regressed for the last two months of 2011. The second half of the season hasn’t started off particularly well, either—though the team managed to have a 4-game winning streak to end the month. However, that 4-game streak wasn’t matching in PPOP or penalty differential. At this point, the evidence for a penalty or PPOP turnaround is fleeting, but if the Lightning manage to turn around their PPOP and penalty numbers, it could very well signal a turnaround in the team’s overall play.

The Lightning have had there fair share of troubles whether it be the misfortune of injuries, a tough road schedule... a goalie that was... and now definitely isn't. You name it and it has happened to the Bolts so far in the 2011-2012 campaign. A lot of negativity and a general feeling of, was this the team that played in May last year, have filled the St. Pete and now Tampa Bay Times Forum throughout the first half of the season. There have been many "must win" games so far this season, but none of the games up until this point mean as much as these next three homes games. I told everyone who has inquired about the Lightning, if the Lightning are able to come out of January at .500, there is no reason they wouldn't be able to make a run at the playoffs, quite simply due to the number of home games remaining, and the number of games left to play the teams that stand directly between the Lightning and a spot in the NHL playoffs. We get into detail of what this week means to the Lightning after the jump.

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There’s been a lot of emotional talk and statements back and forth about Vincent Lecavalier, captain of your Tampa Bay Lightning. It’s no wonder, really: when anyone signs a contract worth more in total than some countries’ gross domestic products (GDP), fans of that particular team expect the player to produce a lot, and produce consistently. Vinny is no exception. For years fans all across Bolts Nation have lamented and criticized The Captain’s production, pointing to his contract (11 years, worth $85 million, with an annual cap hit of just under $7.75 million per year according to CapGeek.com). In this article, I’ll take a deep look at Vinny’s career stats, compare them to his fellow Lightning forwards during his career, as well as compare him to his fellow All-Star forwards from his draft class (1998). In the spirit of full disclosure, I embarked on this research hoping to prove Vinny’s continued worth to the Lightning, but I was fully understanding the stats could show the exact opposite.

First, let’s look at Vinny’s numbers from year to year. The numbers are exactly what you expect from a forward of his caliber. However, the number that sticks out to me is Vinny’s +/- numbers--particularly those in recent years. Early in his career, one could make the argument that offensively-gifted forwards don’t grasp the defensive roles for a few years into their career, and Vinny was likely no different. However, after finishing the 2007-2008 campaign at a +2, he’s been at negative +/- since, finishing last year’s highly successful year (for the team) at a -16 (his worst year since 2008). This season, he’s on pace to have a +/- of -3.73 (through 44 games, extrapolated to 82 games). For the length of his career, his +/- total is -112, averaging -9.17. Though +/- is not a perfect stat, it can be seen as simple indicator of prowess defensively. Vinny’s career stats certainly don’t paint the picture of defensive skill (especially compared to fellow 1998 draftees Simon Gagne and Alex Tanguay, who have career +/- totals of +130 and +152, respectively).

Another surprise is the number of PIMs put up by The Captain. Never in his career has he had less than 23 PIMs--and that career low was his rookie campaign. His least discplined year was back in 2005-2006, where Vinny put up a very Ryan Malone-like 90 PIMs. This year’s not much better: he’s on pace to have more than 78 PIMs before the regular season is complete. His career average is a shade over 55 PIMs, a number he’s not been under since the 06-07 season, except for last year (43 PIM). So certainly Vinny’s not the poster child for the Lady Byng Trophy like his teammate, Marty St Louis.

Below are those same numbers, graphically represented. Two quick notes about the graph: 1) I’ve put colored boxes over the graph to separate the head coaching tenures during Vinny’s career--I’ve excluded coaches that did not coach a full season (yes, I’m talking about you Barry Melrose), and; 2) the thinner lines in the same color are logarithmic trendlines.

Notice the trendlines are going up. Statistically speaking, the projected dip in all the projected offensive totals for 2010 should be an abberation.

So, let’s now put those numbers into perspective with respect to The Captain’s team. To orient you to the graph upcoming, the number in parenthesis after the year on the x-axis (that’s the one on the bottom) is the number of forwards that made at least one appearance in the season for the Lightning in that year. This number is important because it puts perspective on the ranking for the team given to Vinny’s numbers. Also, like the Offensive Production graph above, I separated each coaching change with a colored box. I caution everyone still reading this article to give very low credit to the SHG stats for each year. Because there are so few SHGs in the NHL, and even fewer in the Lightning games (well, at least for our team), many of the years in which Vinny’s listed as tied for first or second place on the team (denoted by 1 (T) or 2 (T), respectively), though he may have scored 1, 2, or 0 SHG that season.

In the graph below, Vinny’s numbers are consistently in the top of the team in all the offensive categories (bottom of the graph is better--in other words ranking #1 on the team is good, ranking #23 is not good. On the other hand, ranking high on the team in PIM is not necessarily good--especially for a sniper/play-maker like Vinny). In fact, Vinny’s average ranking on the team is 1.8, 2.9, and 2.6 in goals, assists and points. That sort of production wasn’t accomplished in the first part of his career, either. Notice his average ranking on the team in every category is better since the Cup year (2004) than before, the exceptions being PPG, SHG and SOG.

Looking at the trend lines (all of them linear, for ease of visualization), we see a significant negative slope for the +/- trendline--not a good sign, especially for someone with minimal apparent defensive skill as Vinny. Another negative trendline slope is found on the PIM trendline--a good sign. All the other trendlines have a slight negative slope, indicating slightly higher team rankings are predicted statistically (remember, the better the rank on the team, the lower the number on the graph for the offensive statistics).

Those statistics are nice, but do not take into account injuries or other instances where Vinny’s playing time was affected. In the graph below, I’ve averaged his offensive statistics (G, A, P) against his TOI in the season listed at the bottom of the graph. Note that the 2011-2012 statistics are extrapolated from his statistics through 44 games. Again, I’ve put logarithmic trendlines on each of the offensive statistics and labeled them as such. Notice all the trendlines are pointing up--a sign for continued success for Vinny in the OZ. The only warning sign I can find here is the trendline for G/TOI is noticeably more flat than the other two.

The graphs above show pretty clearly--well, as clearly as possible--Vinny’s not quite at the peak of his offensive output yet. What will happen in the years to come--that is still up for debate.

Let’s compare Vinny’s career thus far with those of his fellow All-Stars also drafted in 1998: Jonathan Cheechoo, Pavel Datsuyk, Simon Gagne, Scott Gomez, Shawn Horcoff, Mike Ribiero, Brad Richards, and Alex Tanguay. In the chart below, it is very clear Vinny has more GP and G than his ASG alumni.

For the numbers closer together, it’s necessary to visit the data fields from which that graph was made. Below, each of the stats that are better than the average for these players (far right column) are in bold text. Note that Vinny is bettering the average of his draft class mates in all but two (PIM and +/-) categories.

Let’s compare salaries, then, shall we? It seems to be a major point of contention during any discussion of Vinny’s worth or unworth. According to CapGeek.com, Vinny has the 6th highest cap hit in the NHL. The top 5 are Alex Ovechkin ($9.5 million), Evgeni Malkin ($8.7 million), Sidney Crosby ($8.7 million), Eric Staal ($8.25 million), and Rick Nash ($7.8 million). Dany Heatley, are not far behind ($7.5 million each).

Considering all the data pointing still up toward further productive offensive years, and considering Vinny’s not only out-playing his draft class All-Star alumni (including Datsuyk) but also many of the players with higher cap hits than his, I think the evidence is pretty strong Vinny not only should stay a Lightning player for the foreseeable future, but also he will be a productive Bolt as well.

As of January 13, with 40 games remaining in the regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning sit 8 points out of 8th place in the Eastern Conference, hardly an insurmountable deficit, I'd say. Although, I'd hardly say the Lightning are in good shape as much as this season is concerned: they currently stand just 2 points out of last place in the East, and a surefire lottery pick. Bearing this in mind, the way I see it there are two paths, neither of which are necessarily bad, that the team can take moving forward:

1) Make a move or two at the deadline to shore up what isn't injured (read: goalie) and pray for health through March and April.

2) Wait out the season, score a potentially Top 5 draft pick, and build for 2012-13.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have one more trip to Raleigh this season to play the Carolina Hurricanes, and it comes on a weekend. Saturday March 3rd, at 7 PM. Since I am a Raleigh area resident, I'll be going. Cassie is in the DC area, and Tina is in the Charlotte area, so both are close enough to make a weekend trip. So we thought it'd be a good time to meet up and catch a game together. And we'd love to add others from the community, if anyone else can make the trip.

A lot of details can be hashed out later, like whether or not we want to tailgate or whatever (although I'm flying out to Bozeman the next morning, so I won't be pushing for too much late night alcohol). This post is meant to get an idea of how many people are interested and what tickets we want to buy. I have the goal of buying them around the 2nd weekend in January (12th through 15th), so figure out who's in and out, and get me money so I can buy them (I have a PayPal account and a snail mail address that I can give out when we get a little farther along).

Obviously, it's not clear what ticket availability will be like at this time next month. However, we do know that March 3rd is family night, which means that we should be able to get these deals on up to 8 (or 10, I forget) tickets, depending on availability:

*Lower north corners/goal zone (Bolts attacking zone for the 1st and 3rd): $39.75 per ticket

*Upper deck, center ice: $29.75 per ticket

*Upper south corners (Canes attacking zone for 1st and 3rd): $19.75 per ticket

*Upper north goal zone (Bolts attacking zone for 1st and 3rd): $9.75 per ticket.

For what it's worth, I almost always sit in the north upper corners (visitor's attacking zone), because they're the cheapest thing other than upper goal zone, and I feel like the experience is just fine. I've sat all the way up in the top row, but I usually sit in the 6th or 7th, and I really enjoy the latter seats. Those aren't available on the family plan, but two sections over on either side (basically goal zone or center ice) are available as of now.

Hopefully having a month's warning before we actually pull the trigger will allow anybody interested to make sure they can get time off work or whatnot. So what say ye? Anybody else in?

Lightning have appeared to sign Tom Pyatt to a 2 year one-way contract for $600,000.

Continue reading this post »

In the original post in what has become a series, I covered the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons of the Lightning and the Power Play Opportunities (PPOP) for them and for their opponents. The goal then was to prove or disprove the common complaint of Bolts Nation: the referees are biased against the Lightning and give more PPOP to their opponents than to Tampa's Team. In that post, I made the point (backed by historical statistics from the NHL's online repository) there was no bias of the referees--and if there is a bias, it's in favor of the Lightning.

That was then, this is now.

First, to re-orient you to the terms and statistics I used in this edition of the DTHU. First and foremost, the aforementioned PPOP. For PPOP, only time in which one team is at least one man down (or up) counts as PPOP. To make the point more clearly, there is a notable difference between PPOP and the number of times a team is penalized. The difference is matching penalties (either of the minor or major variety) and misconduct penalties (because they do not cause a Power Play in and of themselves).

Also worth noting is the difference in tallying a double-minor penalty. The NHL scores a double-minor penalty as two PPOP, but only one penalty against the offending team. An example of this is the Lightning's game versus the San Jose Sharks earlier this year. In the 3rd period, Michal Handzus received a double-minor for high-sticking--giving the Lightning two PPOP and giving the Sharks one penalty tally. Additionally, PPOP is counted for even the smallest amount of man advantage (i.e. 3 second 5-on-4 advantage counts as a PPOP).

With the introduction out of the way, let's look at the league-wide penalties this year. This year at this point, the Lightning are the 12th most penalized team in the league, racking up 188 penalties through the end of December. Leating the league is Philadelphia (226), and the team Lady Byng leader are the Sharks (142 penalties). The league average is just under 180 (179.43). With that in mind, the Lightning have played 17 of the 18 teams with fewer penalties called against them than the Lightning, and most of them (13 of 14 teams) have fewer penalties tallied against them than the league average. On the other side of the same coin, the Lightning have played 6 of the 11 more heavily penalized teams thus far this year (the 5 missing at the opening of January are Vancouver, Dallas, Anaheim, Edmonton, and the Kings). Keep these numbers in mind later; I believe they partially explain the lower PPOP numbers for the Bolts this year compared to years previous.

Comparing home and road penalties and PPOP, the numbers are about even:

Note that I've calculated the numbers in such a way as to depict negative numbers for statistical differences that are in the opposition's favor; differentials in the positive are beneficial to the Lightning. The mythical "home vs. away" penalties seem not to be a factor--there are 11 more penalties for the Lightning at home than their opposition, and on the road there are 9 more penalties against the Lightning. A difference, sure--but a difference that is small: remember, the Lightning at the end of December have played 37 games (16 at home, 21 on the road). Averaged out over the space of 37 games, the Lightning are being called for 0.541 more penalties per game more than their opponents (0.688 penalties more at home, 0.429 penalties on the road).

As we look at the Lightning and their PPOP, what a difference a year makes. Remember that last year, the Bolts ended the year with 30 more PPOP than their opposition, and was the 13th least penalized team in the league. This year paints a different picture. At the end of December, the Lightning trail their collective opponents by 22 PPOP (0.595 PPOP/Gm). Significant already in this season are a couple of games.

In the games at home against the Panthers on 17th October and 26th November, the Lightning gave the Panthers 6 and 4, respectively, more PPOP than they had, dropping their PPOP Differential significantly each time:

Games in bold text are home games, and again negative numbers in the "Differential" and "Total" columns are in the opposition's favor, positive numbers are in the Lightning's favor.

Now, please recall the mention at the top of this article the total penalties taken by each team in the league. Because the Lightning have been playing the bulk of their games against teams with fewer penalties against them (only 10 of their 37 games have been against teams more heavily penalized than the Lightning), I believe the penalties against the Lightning are normal. As the Bolts continue their schedule it will be interesting to see if that hypothesis holds true. If it does, it could mean a lot more PPOP for the Lightning in the second half of the season. Indeed, when a trendline is added to the graphical representation of the PPOP for the Lightning, it is trending up, after beginning the year at over a point below 0:

Please note the red line on the graph (Total PPOP Differential) is not shown after 14th October because it drops off the graph due to the scale--that was intentional, as I wanted to show the slight upward slope of the PPOP Differential linear trendline.

Additionally, it is very beneficial the Lightning have only one game remaining against the Panthers. Against the Panthers, the Lightning are terrible at taking penalties, giving them five times more PPOP than any other of their opponents thus far. Likewise, we need to really look forward to the remaining games against the Atlanta Thrashers Winnipeg Jets:

In summary, this season is tremendously different than last year--a fact that should not be a surprise to any of the residents of Bolts Nation. What began as a light-hearted study to show Bolts Nation they don't have to fear the referees is finishing to be a study of taking bad penalties this year that were not taken last year, as well as the schedule being front-loaded with the appearance of disciplined teams.

The future versions of this article will be written at the beginning of each new month and at the end of the regular season.

Every couple weeks, we've been updating Tampa Bay Lightning fans on how our current pace compares to last year, when to panic, and when to sit tight. Today, as we turn our calendars to 2012, it's time to start thinking about playoffs (with apologies to Jim Mora). And with that in mind, we have a special pacing post, one that goes beyond last year and looks at every season since the lockout, trying to figure out what we should expect in the next three months.

Our Position and Our Chances

On January 1st, 2012, the Bolts have 37 points in 37 games, a pace that puts them 12th in the Eastern Conference and would yield just 82 points over a full season. Since the lockout, there have been 12 teams that rang in the new year on a point per game pace, with the most recent being the 2010-11 Calgary Flames. While the Flames finished with 94 points, they were just 10th in the Western Conference and became the first team in NHL history to miss the playoffs with 94 or more points.

Of those 12, just two (17%) have recovered to make the playoffs, with the 2007-08 Nashville Predators finishing 8th in the Western Conference with 91 points and the 2005-06 San Jose Sharks finishing 5th in the West with 99 points. However, a third, the 2008-09 Florida Panthers, worked their way into a tie for eighth in the East with 93 points, missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker, and six (50%) have recovered to net 90 or more points, putting themselves solidly in the mix over the season's last weeks. Only one, the 2007-08 Toronto Maple Leafs, finished worst than 11th in their conference. So while the success rate doesn't look great, the Lightning will as likely as not be in the thick of playoff race as the season winds down.

Tampa Bay currently sits six points out of the final playoff spot, but they have two games in hand on its current occupant and at least one game in hand on the vast majority of the league. Against a point per game pace, the Lightning are currently +0, and the 7th, 8th, and 9th place teams are all +5. Essentially, we just assume overtime losses for teams who have played fewer games to give us numbers that are not skewed by number of games played, thus finding Tampa effectively five points out of a playoff spot.

Using the same method, we can search through past seasons to determine how many teams were four to six points out of a playoff spot in past seasons. Since the lockout, there have been 18 teams who meet this description. Five (28%) have made the playoffs: the 2010-11 Buffalo Sabres, the 2007-08 Nashville Predators, the 2007-08 Washington Capitals, the 2006-07 Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 2005-06 New Jersey Devils. Right now, only the Lightning and Sabres are in this position. Recent history suggests that we have a fairly even chance of seeing one of the two play through the third week of April.

Our Competition and Their Chances

What of the rest of the conference? Let's take care of the top and the bottom first. On January 1st, 2012, three Eastern Conference teams, the Boston Bruins, the New York Rangers, and the Philadelphia Flyers are between +12 and +15 against the point per game pace. Since the lockout, no team +12 or better on New Year's Day has missed the playoffs. The 2008-09 Canadiens fell all the way into a tie for 8th, but they won a tiebreaker over the feisty Florida Panthers team we saw earlier before being swept by the Bruins in the first round. So go ahead and pencil Boston, New York, and Philadelphia into the playoffs.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, three teams sit at -4 or below: the Montreal Canadiens (-4), the New York Islanders (-4), and the Carolina Hurricanes (-8). Since the lockout, no team at -4 or worse on New Year's Day has come back to make the playoffs. So go ahead and write off the Habs, Isles, and Canes.

So in addition to the Lightning and Sabres, there are seven teams fighting for five remaining playoff spots. The Florida Panthers and Pittsburgh Penguins sit at +8 and the New Jersey Devils at +6. The Winnipeg ThrasherJets and Washington Capitals sit at +5, the Ottawa Senators at +4, and the Toronto Maple Leafs at +3.

Since the lockout, 13 teams have ushered in a new year at +7 or +8. Eight (62%) have made the playoffs. And in every year in which there have been multiple teams fitting this description, at least one has failed to make the playoffs, most recently last year's St. Louis Blues and Colorado Avalanche. So recent history suggests that we will more likely than not see the Penguins, Panthers, Minnesota Wild, or San Jose Sharks (all currently +8) miss the playoffs, possibly more than one.

Since the lockout, 31 teams have found themselves +3, +4, or +5 when the calendar turned to January. Of these, 20 (65%) have made the playoffs, a higher success rate than the teams with hotter starts (and to explain this, I scream "sample size!"). [I will note that, because I compiled these statistics before yesterday's games finished, they do not cover everyone in the Eastern Conference, with the +6 Devils left out.] However, the numbers suggest that seven teams can be grouped into a similar category with a roughly 65% chance of making the playoffs. So, of the group containing the Penguins, Panthers, Devils, Jets, Capitals, Senators, and Leafs, we will should expect to see 4.5 teams come playoff time. Because, as we said earlier, there are five remaining playoff spots, the Bolts want that number to be four or less, and this again suggests a 50/50 chance of either Tampa Bay or Buffalo reaching up and snagging a place in the postseason.

Your 2012 Rooting Guide

1. The Western Conference is your friend*. Unless you also cheer for a Western Conference team, in which case you have a whole new set of problems. Root for Western Conference teams over Eastern Conference teams (who aren't the Lightning, as should go without saying).

2. The top three are your friends*. While we like or loathe the Bruins, Rangers, and Flyers to various degrees, they can help us in the playoff race. They're going to make it--it's time to accept that. So when they're playing a middle of the pack Eastern Conference team, cheer for the big dogs, if you can stomach it. Every time Boston beats Buffalo or the Rags take down the Devils, the Lightning's chances to make the playoffs increase.

3. The bottom three are your friends*. The Canes, Isles, and Habs are more likely to net the #1 pick in the 2012 draft than to appear in the 2012 playoffs. So lay down your hate** and cheer for them against the middle of the conference.

4. No Bettman points. This one is pretty self-explanatory. We never want to see the Penguins, Panthers, Devils, Capitols, Jets, Senators, Maple Leafs, or Sabres in overtime. Unless it's a last ditch alternative to them winning outright over a team outside that group.

5. While we have general guidelines for how to handle teams in this group, they're not hard and fast. For instance, the Penguins have a goal differential of +21, while the Panthers are -4. If I had to make a guess as to which team falls off in the second half, it'd be Florida. So my personal inclination might be to root for Pittsburgh against other members of the middle group--I just think the Lightning have a better chance of overtaking the others in the group. I may also root against Winnipeg and Washington when playing other members of the middle set, for my own personal reasons. Finally, I will likely root for Buffalo against all seven of the others. Tampa merely has to keep pace with Buffalo. They have to catch the rest (or at least three of the rest). The latter is harder.

*None of these friendships apply when they face off against Tampa head to head.

**This is obviously a guide for pragmatics. If you can't bear to root for Montreal against Florida, you don't have to. But their victory in such games helps the Lightning.

What's It Gonna Take?

The Lightning currently have 37 points in 37 games, or 1.00 points per game. While 90 will get a team in playoff contention and current paces suggest that 92 might do the job, an Eastern Conference team has never reached 94 and missed the playoffs, so that's the goal I'll be working with. To finish with 94 points, Tampa must collect 57 points in the next 45 games, an average of 1.27 per game (and a pace that only the Bruins, Rangers, Flyers, Blackhawks, Canucks, and Red Wings have kept up to date). So basically, the Bolts need to average five points in every four game stretch. Which sounds easier than it is, but is certainly not impossible.

Breaking it down further, Tampa has netted 15 points in 21 road games (.71 points per game, a truly horrendous pace) and 22 points in 16 home games (1.37 per game, which is pretty good). Extrapolated over a season, that comes out to 29 road points and 56 home points, for a total of 85. While this is slightly better than the overall pace of 82 (as one would expect from a team having played more on the road than at home), it still won't deliver a playoff berth.

If the road play remains as bad as it is, the Bolts will need to pick up 1.72 points per game at home for the remainder of the season to make the playoffs. No one does that. Okay, so the Wings do that, but they're 15-2-1 at home. That's what it'll take. And I don't see that happening. If the home record remains static, Tampa needs improve to a 1.15 point per game pace on the road, a pace currently held by Boston, Philadelphia, the New York Rangers, Chicago, Vancouver, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. Not easy, but plenty doable. In fact, last year's Bolts, who averaged 1.17 points per game on the road, did it. Of course, were the Bolts to improve in both areas, they could get by with a more modest improvement in each. But the road record, dragged down by a truly horrific road power play, seems the best candidate for improvement.

So that was a lot. But we can break it down into smaller chunks. This week, the Lightning play three road games in Eastern Canada. Four points will represent the kind of pace required to make the playoffs. Three points, while falling short of the requirement, would represent a drastic improvement over the road play of the first half of the season and would not be worrisome. But if the week passes and Tampa Bay nets two or fewer points, we've moved yet another week closer to the end of the season without making progress toward our postseason goal.