He’s back on the list in the same spot he was in 2024. While the ranking stayed the same, Jayson Shaugabay’s game took a step forward last season. Can he keep it rolling this season?
| Name | Jayson Shaugabay |
| Position | Center |
| Age (as of October 1) | 20 |
| Height/Weight | 5’10”, 175 lbs. |
| Expected 2024-25 Team | University of Minnesota-Duluth |
| Draft – Year, Round | 2023, 4th Round (115) |
| Previous Rankings | 17 (2023), 16 (2024) |
| Justin G.’s Ranking | 15 |
| Final Rank | 16 |
Stats:
Our Thoughts:
When we wrote about Jayson Shaugabay in 2023 we mentioned that he was a little different than some of the usual Tampa Bay Lightning draft picks:
Shaugabay is really a unique player for the Lightning to take. Pretty much for the entirety of the Yzerman/BriseBois Era we’ve seen them eschew potential high-end offense in favor of the two-way responsible forwards in the mold of Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, Mitchell Stephens, etc. With this pick, they’re gambling that either Shaugabay’s offense will overcome that, or he can find the balance needed to not end up in the coach’s doghouse on a nightly basis.
2023 Top 25 Under 25 #17 Jayson Shaugabay
Since then, the Lightning have two more players with similar profiles in Joona Saarelainen and Marco Mignosa in successive drafts. It seems that, along with their usual defensive-minded, 200-foot players, they’ve carved out a spot in each draft to go after a player with unique offensive skills that may suffer some defensive defincies. The hope is that they keep their offensive ways while they move through the system and can give the Lightning some scoring depth in the future. When you’re not getting a crack at the top-end prospects, it’s a risk worth taking.
The early returns on Shaugabay’s college career are good. He finished third in scoring for a UMD team that finished seventh in the NCHC standings last season, a position they aren’t used to being in. It was a pretty consistent season for the Lightning draft pick as well. After kicking the season off with a bang by posting three points (two goals and an assist) in his first collegiate game, he finished with 26 points (12 goals, 14 assists). Outside of a seven-game stretch towards the end of the season where he posted just one goal, he put points on the board at a pretty regular pace.
Can he take the next step and increase his production with the Bulldogs? He should continue being one of their top-six forwards this season, and he has the puck skills to be one of the better players not only on the team, but also in the conference. He’s a playmaker that has excellent vision on the ice and knows how to set his teammates up for success.
His shot is good, and he probably defers a bit too much for his own good. He only took 60 shots the entire season, which was eighth on the team. For comparison, the two only two forwards who scored more goals than he did on the Bulldogs finished with 108 shots (Dominic James) and 107 (Anthony Menghini). The kid should shoot the puck a little more. If he does, he’ll find that it frees up a little more space for him on the ice and will give him more opportunities to work the puck to his teammates.
While he’s listed as a center for now, his path forward is likely as a winger. He is a right-shot, and watching some of his highlight videos shows that he operates a lot like a mirrored-version of Nikita Kucherov. Shaugabay is able to create offense without moving. He gets some pretty good whip on his wrist shots despite without moving, and he can seamlessly move the puck around the ice at a standstill as well.
It would be nice to see him carry some of his power play production over to 5v5. Half of his goals came with on the man-advantage, and while that’s nice (especially for a right-handed shot) he can’t rely on that if he wants to make it to the NHL. He has to be able to create the space at even-strength as well.
The offensive skills are there, and his defense should improve. Head coach Scott Sandelin has been known to favor a more defensive style for his team than some young players are used to playing. There was some speculation a few seasons ago that part of the reason Isaac Howard transferred out of the program was due to stylistic differences with the head coach.
There is no reason to really rush him into professional hockey at this point. Of course, if he explodes offensively this season, that can change, but chances are he spends two more seasons with the Bulldogs and then joins the Syracuse Crunch for a season or two.
His ceiling is a middle-six forward that can rack up some power play time. In order to attain that, he’ll have to improve his strength and skating. He’s not a bad skater, but there is a lack of explosiveness that can be exploited as the competition against him gets better. His hockey sense and puck-handling skills already project to NHL-levels, and those are traits that will keep a player in an organization.
On a broader level, Shaugabay is representative of the Lightning prospect pipeline as a whole. Not necessarily in his skillset, but in his NHL potential. Could he be a NHL player? Yes. Could he be a good NHL player? Yes. Could he be a great NHL player? No. Could he miss the NHL completely? Yes.
This countdown is filled with players that have the chance to be NHLers, even good NHLers. The Lightning are great at finding prospects that project out to be solid NHL players, but not impact players. Even when we get to the top of this list, the likelihood that it’s featuring a future hall of fame player is extremely small. That’s just the way it is. Even if Julien BriseBois had held onto his first-round picks instead of trading them like away like they’re David Price rookie cards, that would be the case. It’s the price of success.
Hopefully, some of these prospects do end up overachieving their expectations.
Highlight Videos:
🚨 Jayson Shaugabay (#13 in maroon) rips it home for his 11th goal of the NCAA season!#GoBolts
— Future Bolts (@LightningProsp1) March 16, 2025
pic.twitter.com/RBv092NAy3
There are a couple of similar goals from Shaugabay to this one. He likes to sit right on the goalline and then whip the puck up and in on the shortside. His release is quick enough that goaltenders can’t get over in time to close up that upper quadrant.
🍎 Jayson Shaugabay (#13 in maroon) picks up assist #11 of the NCAA season on this power play goal.#GoBolts
— Future Bolts (@LightningProsp1) February 8, 2025
pic.twitter.com/nRa5Se4tDk
Here is an example of creating offense without moving. Looks like a play Kucherov would pull off right? His head is up and he has the attention of the goaltender, but sees his teammate crashing the slot. The pass is quick and on the stick.
Shaugabay lets the shot go from pretty much the same spot as he made the pass from in the previous highlight. He’s ready for the rebound and he gets it off quickly. Again, this is too good of a shot for him to be only unleashing it twice a game on average.
