During his tenure as the general manager of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Julien BriseBois hasn’t made a lot of huge splashes in the free agency market. A stellar crop of home-grown players has limited his needs to mostly filling in around the edges, and a tight salary cap has prevented him from even courting most of the big name free agents over the last six years. This past summer was a bit different. With a rising salary cap, the trade of Mikhail Sergachev, and an inability to come to terms with Steven Stamkos, Mr. BriseBois had the need for, and the cap space, to bring in the biggest name on the free agent board.
Of course, in true BriseBois fashion, he didn’t do it in a traditional sense. Instead of waiting until July 1st to sign Jake Guentzel, he orchestrated a trade with the Carolina Hurricanes for the rights to the 30-year-old forward and then signed him to a contract. Technically, Conor Sheary still owns the biggest true free agent contract signed under the BriseBois regime.
No matter the logistics he got his man, and Jake Guentzel has provided everything Mr. BriseBois had hoped he would. Averaging just over 20 minutes a night, the Omaha native has 9 goals and 11 assists, and is providing the even-strength upgrade that the Lightning hoped he would when they signed him to the 7-year, $63 million contract this season.
So, how has he integrated himself into the Lightning offense in such a short time? Pretty much by being Jake Guentzel, and quickly acclimating to the play of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. He has 11 5v5 points this season, and 8 of them have involved either Kucherov or Point or both of them in some combination. Although it was apparent that Guentzel could play with extremely talented players, after all he jumped right into the league on Sidney Crosby’s line, there was a little twinge of doubt prior to the season that he might not click with Kucherov or Point. That concern has been put to bed.
Despite not being one of the faster skaters in the league (at least according to NHL Edge stats) Guentzel has been right at home with Point and Kucherov when it comes to transition hockey.
The trio are not dumping the puck in and chasing after it, rather they are skating in, driving the defense back and setting up scoring chances.
One of the things we noticed when we worked up the scouting report at the time of his acquisition, is that he does his best work from the front of the net. He hasn’t changed that style since joining the Lightning.
He stands in front of the net taking punishment (Natural Stat Trick has him taking 28 hits, second among forwards behind Zemgus Girgenson’s 32) and deflecting shots. Guentzel doesn’t waste his time winding up for big shots, the graphic above from HockeyViz credits him with just two slapshots, nor does he fire from distance. The vast majority of his shots come from high-danger areas, which is part of the reason he is successful on 16.13% of his shots at 5v5. That number is a little higher than what he averaged with Pittsburgh, but not drastically so as he has been consistently in the double digits in regards to shooting percentage.
It is noticeable that he is averaging fewer shots per game (5.96/60) compared to his time in Pittsburgh (8.13/60) and his individual scoring chances and high-danger chances are down, but part of that is due to the fact he hasn’t had to shoot it as much, especially with Kucherov more intent on firing the pucks at the net.
The beauty of having three consistent scorers on one line, is that, as defenses adjust to stop one player, it leaves openings for the other two. There is a good chance that Guentzel’s shooting and scoring chances numbers will tick up as the season progresses and opposing defenses get tired of seeing Kucherov put the puck in the net on them.
Another thing that he hasn’t been doing quite as much is carrying the puck into the zone. He was one of the top zone-entry forwards for the Penguins last year, with All Three Zones crediting him with 20.45/60 throughout the season. This year, with Point and Kucherov zooming into the zone with the puck, Guentzel’s number is down to 17.53/60. That allows him to trail the play into the zone and set himself up in scoring positions.
While this goal was set up by Nick Paul carrying it into the zone, it illustrates the point. Guentzel trailed Paul into the zone, and put himself into a prime scoring spot to let the wrist shot go, and beat a pretty good goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck.
It’s not like he’s saving all of his offense for even strength either. While the Lightning power play isn’t as overpowering as it has been in the past, it is getting better (they’re up to 8th in the league at 23%) and Guentzel is second on the team with 3 goals with the man advantage. His style of play in the offensive zone, somehow getting lost despite playing right in front of the net, is really effective for the Lightning. He is there to deflect pucks and he generates a lot of rebounds with his shots.
Another aspect that Guentzel has brought to this season is stability on the top line. With a brief exception due to Brayden Point’s injury, the top line has been the top line with Point centering Guentzel and Kucherov. To date they have played 16 games and spent 172 minutes of 5v5 time on the ice together.
Their numbers have been solid as they are boasting positive numbers in overall shot attempts (51.74%), goals for (66.67%), scoring chances (52.15%), and high-danger chances (56.16%). That is what you want out of your top line, and having them on the ice together breeds the type of familiarity that will likely lead to even more chances and goals.
Last season was a bit of a different story as the top line had a couple of iterations. Through roughly the same amount of games, Brandon Hagel spent 100 minutes with Point and Kucherov, while Alex Barré-Boulet spent 66 minutes on the top line, and Steven Stamkos had 38. The lack of consistent 5v5 scoring led to a lot of that mixing, but it also made it hard for there to be any continuity on the lines.
This year has been a little different, with the top line and the fourth line pretty much locked in at this point. Yes, there has been shuffling in the middle-six, and they could use someone grabbing the second-line wing opposite of Brandon Hagel by the horns and making it their own, but the fact that they can roll out the same top line every night and have it be their best line is one of the top reasons we’ve seen the improved 5v5 play.
Coach Cooper has also been using him on face-offs more this season than at any point in Guentzel’s career. He is leading the team by winning 61.63% of his draws. The 86 face-offs he’s taken is already the second most he’s had in a season and more than he’s had in the last four seasons combined.
So far, Julien BriseBois’ biggest swing in free agency has been a home run as Jake Guentzel is off to a really good start to his Lightning career. And, even better, he might not be running at his full potential just yet.
Shameless plug time:
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