A look back at October for the Tampa Bay Lightning

In the end, it wasn’t a horrible month for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Sure, six games in that wasn’t the way things were tracking, but a strong finish to the month helped pull the Lightning back into the middle of the pack. And all of that without Nick Paul. Things can only get better once he’s back, right?

The question that they’ll be answering for the next few months is if their 1-4-2 start put them in a spot that they can’t overcome. Their first win in November vaulted them back into a playoff spot and just four points behind the Montreal Canadiens for the top spot. The fact that no one in the Atlantic took off in October has kept things fairly close as last place Buffalo has 13 points as of November 3rd.

Here is how October broke down for them as compared to last year where they got off to a 7-3-0 start.

The 5v5 stats all trended in the right direction as the month went along, which helped them since the power play, usually a staple in their game, was inconsistent at best. They finished the month 15.4% 6-for-39), one of their lowest months over the past few seasons. The percentage is even worse considering they scored on their first two opportunities of the month.

Normally, when fans scream “shoot the puck” it’s annoying and ill-timed. For the Lightning, it might be sage advice. They ranked 29th in the league with 43.31 SF/60 with the extra skater despite being 19th in scoring chances at 57.74. So they’re getting in good spots, but electing to pass the puck instead of putting it on net. They’ve made a few adjustments in their last game with Nikita Kucherov flipping over to the left side of the ice. Despite his dislike of playing off his normal side, it did energize things last year when they tried it, so maybe it will have the same effect this season.

On the other side of the special teams coin, well, no notes. They were fourth at 89.2% while being tied at 18th with 37 times short-handed in the month. That number, especially the careless penalties, could be a little better.

Individually, Jake Guentzel is your first month MVP as he had 8 5v5 points (4 goals, 4 assists) to lead the team. He was by far the most consistent player on the roster picking up points in seven of the eleven games (when you include his power play production). With Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov scuffling (by their standards) Guentzel’s production as well as the six 5v5 points by Anthony Cirelli helped keep the team in contention.

Point’s lack of production is something to keep an eye on. While he did have a goal and five assists he wasn’t generating the usual high-danger chances we are used to seeing from him. Natural Stat Trick credited him with just four in the month, which puts him behind Yanni Gourde (six) and Pontus Holmberg (eight) who were on the ice for fewer minutes than Point.

The Lightning will need him to start generating chances in order to get that top line, which was so dangerous last year, going. Coach Cooper has already broken them up a little, moving Brandon Hagel up to play with Point and Kucherov at times, and there was at least one game where Kucherov and Point were broken up. Once the line does heat up, the entire team’s offensive production will ramp up quickly.

It’s unlikely that anyone had Jonas Johansson posting a better save percentage than Andrei Vasilevskiy in the month of October, yet that’s what happened as JoJo posted a .913 SV% to Vasy’s .899. That being said, Vasilevskiy rounded into form as the month went on. After posting negative goals-saved-above-expected in his first two starts, he was in the positive the rest of the way with the 2.28 GSAx he posted against Dallas as his high-water mark.

The lack of action he saw in the pre-season likely had something to do with that, but the team’s improved play in front of him as the month went along was a big factor as well. After facing 28 or more shots in each of his first four starts, he hasn’t faced more than 25 in any of his last four.

Roster-wise there was a little movement. They started without Zemgus Girgensons and Nick Paul. Kucherov missed a few games with an illness, and Max Crozier was out with an injury. They sent Mitchell Chaffee and Conor Geekie to Syracuse after the duo struggled to make an impact. While Dominic James has yet to record a point, he has injected some much needed speed in the bottom-six. Charle-Edouard D’Astous has done the same for the defense.

The return of Girgensons has given them a fourth line (with Yanni Gourde and Pontus Holmberg) that has been able to tilt the ice while being a tough line to play against. In the four games they’ve been together they’ve allowed just one goal while being on the ice for two. The team has a 56.90% edge in shot attempts and a 51.61% edge in scoring chances. If they can battle other teams to a draw, that’s a win for the Lightning, especially considering how much that line struggled last year.

The Lightning didn’t have a great month, and they definitely have room for improvement, but they never lost confidence in their system. It’s going to be a dogfight in the Atlantic Division this season and there are no teams that they can take the night off against and expect to beat.

With their schedule a little less wonky (only two back-to-backs and they are spread out by almost two weeks) and a healthier roster, the Lightning should be in good shape to make a run to the top of the standings if they can continue the effort they’ve put in over the last two weeks. One of the small drawbacks is that they only have two games against divisional foes, so moving up the standings could be a little tougher, but if they win the games on the schedule, they should be okay.