In Gary Bettman’s perfect NHL world, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers would meet in the playoffs every year for eternity. The bracketed playoff system is designed to build rivalries by guaranteeing that division rivals will meet frequently in the playoffs. So what if it also means that a 100-point team (or 98-point team) gets bounced in the first round? For the second year in a row, the Florida-based teams are set to meet in the first round, so Uncle Gary’s plan is coming together nicely. Before we look ahead to this year’s match-up, let’s go back and take a look at last year’s to see if we can glean any relevant information from the Panther’s 4-1 series win.
Things were a bit different last season as the Florida Panthers were the Atlantic Division’s top seed while the Lightning were a wild-card team after posting a 45-29-8 record. The skaters from Sunrise were a defensive juggernaut, allowing just 198 goals all season long while the Lightning were, well, not great at defense. Their 267 goals allowed was 22nd in the league. They tried to make up for those deficiencies with the fifth-ranked offense in the league and a lethal power play. It’s a plan that can work in the regular season, but can be risky in the postseason.
Game 1: Panthers 3, Lightning 2
The Lightning were a mess early and Florida took advantage by opening the scoring. Tampa Bay tied it later in the period as play evened out, but an early third-period, power-play goal by Carter Verhaeghe allowed Florida to grind out the clock and they won 3-2. Both teams connected on the power play, but the Lightning’s was on a late 6-on-4 with Vasilevskiy pulled.
Game 2: Panthers 3, Lightning 2 (OT)
In today’s NHL, where comebacks are more of a norm, and teams don’t panic until losing on home ice in a playoff series, it’s weird to say that Game 2 was the deciding game in this match-up. However, in hindsight, it most likely was. Florida came out and pinned the Lightning back for much of the first period, building a two-goal lead. Tampa Bay fought back to tie it, with Steven Stamkos scoring the tying goal on the power play. After the remainder of the game turned into a goalie show, Carter Verhaeghe ended it in overtime.
One of the defining images of the series happened in this game. Unfortunately, for Matt Dumba, when people remember his brief Tampa Bay Lightning career, this is the play they will remember:
If the Lightning go up by a goal in the second period, do they pull this game off? If the series is 1-1 heading back to Tampa, is there a different outcome? Was Sergei Bobrovsky in their head the rest of the series after that save? So many questions that we’ll never find the answer to.
The goaltenders were the stars the rest of the game. In overtime, it was that guy again, Carter Verhaeghe. Matthew Tkachuck is able to get to a puck in the Lightning zone and Verhaeghe cuts to the net at the right time to beat Vasilevskiy.
Game 3 – Panthers 5, Lightning 3
When your offense is so reliant on the power play, as the Lightning’s was throughout the season, you have to cash in on the opportunities you’re given. Tampa Bay had four power play chances, including three in the first period, but they didn’t cash in. The Lightning also had the lead midway through the game, but an inability to clear the puck led to the tying goal, and the Panthers took over from there. Tkachuk had an empty-net goal with 30 seconds left, so this was basically another one-goal loss for the Bolts.
Game 4 – Lightning 6, Panthers 3
There is nothing like the return of a key player in the middle of a playoff series to spark a team. Mikhail Sergachev returned from a broken leg to help the Lightning to their lone win of the series. Tampa Bay dominated early, connecting on the power play and short-handed as they built a three-goal lead in the first period. A raucous second period would end with the lead trimmed down to own goal, but goals from Steven Stamkos (his fifth in four games) and Nick Paul sealed the win.
Game 5 – Panthers 6, Lightning 1
Just looking at that final score one would assume the Lightning were smoked off the ice to end their season. Instead, it was a highly competitive game that Florida led, 2-1, going into the third period. Oh yeah, and the Lightning had a goal overturned and one disallowed. Cool. Not only did the Lightning let two more power play chances go without a goal, they also allowed a short-handed goal. That’s absolutely deflating in the post season. Florida built on their lead with two third-period goals and then added a couple of empty-netters which led to the lopsided final score, and one final unforgettable visual for Lightning fans – Steven Stamkos as the last player on the ice after the game.
Despite the lopsided win totals, it was a close series. Had the Lightning been able to force a couple of bounces their way, maybe they pull off the upset. They posted a 49.18 xGF% and had 47.75% of the scoring chances, so they were by no means blown off the ice by the Panthers.
Unfortunately, they lost the special teams battle. In the end, the power play finished at 20% and the penalty kill at 76.9%, both well down from their season stats (28.65 and 83.3% respectively). For a team that struggled like they did at even strength, not being able to convert on special teams was their ultimate undoing.
It was also the reason Julien BriseBois made such a conscious effort to improve the 5v5 play in the off-season. It worked. In 2023-24, the Lightning had a -19 goal differential at 5v5 (171 scored, 190 allowed). This past season that number was +42 (186 scored, 144 allowed). That is a dramatic change from year to year for a squad that brought back as many of the same players as the Lightning did. It also bodes well for the playoffs. The Lightning know they can score at even strength. They don’t have to rely on the power play now.
On paper, the Lightning have more scoring depth as well. In the series last spring, they scored 14 goals, and Steven Stamkos was responsible for 5 of them. Brayden Point had 2, but they both came on the power play. From the bottom-six skaters, only Tyler Motte registered a goal, and Victor Hedman had the only tally from a blueliner. The Bolts will need to do better, especially their middle six, if they want to advance this year. The good news is, at least on paper, they are built to do so. The additions of Yanni Gourde, and the play of Gage Goncalves, should allow for them to roll out at least three lines that can score, something that wasn’t available to them last season.
Starting on Tuesday, we’ll see if the lessons learned in their loss last year pay off this season. No matter what, it should be a fun series.
