Through their first three games last season the Tampa Bay Lightning lost two of them. It was early in the season so there was no need to panic, but the fact that they had surrendered eleven 5v5 goals (14 overall) was worrisome. There were plenty of reasons to justify it – Andrei Vasilevskiy was on injured reserve, they were adjusting to a new set of defensive players, two of the games were on the road, etc. They would eventually get their act together and make the playoffs, but their struggles with 5v5 lingered for the entire season as they allowed 190 on the season, the fifth most in the league.
Through three games this season, it’s been the exact opposite. The Bolts are 3-0 and have allowed just three 5v5 goals despite playing three very competent offenses in Carolina, Vancouver and Vegas. In the meantime they scored seven 5v5 goals, one more than they had at this point last season. After relying on their power play in their season-opening win against Carolina, the Bolts have won their last two games by scoring at even strength, a beautiful sign for future success.
Having Andrei Vasilevskiy back between the pipes has helped as he’s posted a .948 SV% and 2.96 GSAx at 5v5. The Big Cat has been up to his old tricks, posting an .889 HDSV% compared to the .812 HDSV% that he had last last season. Mid-danger shots troubled him a bit last season as he posted an .872 SV% on those types of shots. This year he’s stopped 12 of 13 according to Natural Stat Trick.
Along with the strong play by his goaltender, Coach Cooper has been blessed with effective play from his second line. For much of last season, the Lightning got by with an out of the world power play and a dominating top line. This year, things have been a little more spread out thanks to the play of Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Nick Paul.
The trio may only have one goal between them at 5v5 play, but they’ve generated more than their fair share of chances. According to Evolving Hockey, the trio has posted a 6.04 XGF/60 over their 28 minutes of time together on the ice. That is the second-highest expected goals for per 60 minutes in the league so far this season, trailing only the Rangers line of Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, and Will Cuylle who are at 6.48 XGF/60.
If they keep generating the chances that they have created so far, they will turn them into actual goals at some point. However, more importantly, they are playing extremely well defensively as well. Their expected goals against per 60? Well, it’s a cool 1.03, the third best mark in the NHL. Going back to Natural Stat Trick shows us that they’ve allowed just one goal and only two high-danger chances against. Coach Jon Cooper has been a little concerned about the “Grade A” chances that the Lightning have allowed early on, but that’s an issue he hasn’t had to worry about when Cirelli and his mates are on the ice.
What makes their defensive numbers even better is that, when he’s had the chance, Coach Cooper has sent them out against the other team’s top line. Against Vancouver they spent most of their ice time against the JT Miller line and posted an 84.17% xGF while controlling 72.73% of the scoring chances. The Canucks top trio managed just four shots on goal and were limited to one high-danger chance against the Cirelli line.
Against Vegas they were tasked with keeping one of the best lines in hockey under wraps. Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Ivan Barbashev have run roughshod over the NHL through five games, and while they did score a 5v5 against Cirelli and his linemates, for the majority of the night they were held under wraps as the Lightning had a 59.09% XGF while they were on the ice, and once again, held their opponents to just one high-danger chance.
When the line is able to match-up against the other team’s top line, that gives the Lightning’s top line a chance to run rampant against the opposition. That they’ve done as Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov have combined for 4 goals and 23 scoring chances (12 high-danger chances).
Another positive sign for the Lightning is that they’ve gone back to finishing games out strong. Through their first three games the third period has been their best period in regards to shot attempts against, scoring chances against, and high-danger chances against:
| Totals (at 5v5) | First Period | Second Period | Third Period |
| Shot Attempts Against | 42 | 54 | 31 |
| Scoring Chances Against | 20 | 31 | 12 |
| High-Danger Chances Against | 12 | 13 | 4 |
Considering that in two of their games they’ve played with the lead in the third period, the fact that they’ve shut the door as well as they have is a very promising trend. Yes, those second period numbers are a bit troublesome, but that’s a worry for another day. The same can be said for the suddenly ice-cold power play.
All summer long, the mantra coming from the coaching staff and executives was that they needed to improve their 5v5 play after seeing their production dip over the past two seasons. So far they’ve accomplished that task and it’s allowed them to pick up six points over their first three games. The trick will be to keep it going as the season keeps going.
