Andrei Vasilevskiy named as a Vezina Trophy finalist

For the fifth time in his career, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been selected as one of the top three goaltenders in the regular season. The one-time winner (2018-19) makes his return as a finalist for the first time since the 2020-21 season when he finished second. Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg) and Darcy Kuemper (Los Angeles) are the other two finalists.

Look, we know that Hellebuyck is going to win this thing, and deservedly so. The only question will be if it unanimous or if Vasilevskiy and Kuemper can sneak in a couple of first-place votes. Hellebuyck started the season off red-hot, building a huge lead in the eyes of the voters and did enough down the stretch to secure the award. There will be no disagreement here if Vasilevskiy comes in second.

The nomination is validation that, after a year of average play, Vasilevskiy is back among the elite goaltenders in the league. The 30-year-old became the fastest goaltender in NHL history to 300 wins, and then added another 31 victories before the end of the season. With 331 wins in 540 career games, he’s on pace to break the record for 400 wins as well, currently held by Sergei Bobrovsky, who did it in 707 games.

Vasilevskiy’s hall-of-fame resume is complete as it is. He could walk away tomorrow (although that would be awkward since the Lightning have a game to play) and still be a first-ballot inductee. However, after he put up a pedestrian (at least for him) season last year, some doubts as to his future started to creep in, especially considering he was coming off of back surgery.

This year, he put those rests to doubt:

We led with Goals Saved Above Expected because, to us, that’s the most direct indicator as to how the goaltender is benefiting the team. Based on the quality of shots he faced, Vasilevskiy saved 28 more goals than he was expected to allow this year compared to the 0.03 goals last season. That’s a huge improvement, and a great reason as to why the Lightning improved their defense so much year-over-year.

After a season of being average, Vasilevskiy was back to making saves that mediocre goaltenders aren’t expected to stop, especially on the initial shots. The Lightning are at their best when he makes an initial stop and they are able to clear out any rebound attempts. Last season he stopped exactly the amount of first shots that the numbers said he should, this year he was better. It was tough to beat him cleanly this year. Granted, the defense in front of him helped out with that.

As Micah’s chart shots, there was a huge gap between the expected goals (black line) and the actual goals (red line) allowed this season. However, this also shows that the team in front of him was doing a better job of taking the dangerous chances away. As the chart moves from 2023-24 the expected goals line dips. Not quite as dramatically as the red line, but it’s still trending downward.

Part of his success was his consistency this year. Out of his 63 starts (the most in the league) he posted 41 quality shots, which Hockey Reference defines as starts where his save percentage is greater than the average save percentage on the season. That’s the most in his career. Despite playing the third most minutes in his career, he posted his best goals against (2.18) and second-highest save percentage (.921).

Helping boost his numbers was his play in high-danger situations, where the opposing teams have quality chances against him. As we see in this viz, the left side of the ice and in front of the net were problems for him last year.

This year, not so much

Now, some of that could be attributed to the acquisition of Ryan McDonagh and the increased defensive play of Victor Hedman, especially the elimination of all of the red on the left-side of the chart, but Vasilevskiy was tracking the puck a lot better this season, and keeping the rebound danger at a minimum.

One difference between this season’s Vasilevskiy and the ones that earned prior nominations is his efficiency in net. As a younger man, he was a freak of athleticism, making saves by contorting his body to Hasakian-levels or relying on his reflexes to make last-second stops. He’s a much more economical and positionally-sound goaltender, sometimes barely flinching as he directs a shot out of danger. That’s not to say he can’t wow the crowd when he needs to as he’s one of the best goaltenders in the league at moving from post-to-post. He just doesn’t need to as much any longer.

That efficiency also allowed him to be in position on rebounds and second chances or deflections in front of the net. If he’s not flinging his body all over the crease to stop a shot, it stands to reason he’ll be able to deal with the follow up attempts a lot easier.

There were some worried looks at his $9.5 million cap hit after last season, but equaled that value this year. If he keeps this level up, and there is no reason why he shouldn’t, barring any drastic roster changes in front of him, his play in net basically makes the Lightning a playoff team every season.

Congratulations to Vasilevskiy on the nomination, and to the ones coming in his future.