Game Thirty-eight: Carolina Hurricanes (24-14-2) at Tampa Bay Lightning (20-15-2)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, FDSNSO, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning -105
Know the Opponents: Canes Country
We can all agree that the West Coast trip did not go the way anyone remotely affiliated with the Tampa Bay Lightning organization wanted it to go. The math was pretty simple:
Three games + Three Regulation Losses = Zero Points
That is now blissfully in the past so there is no use in rehashing or reliving it. What we can do is take a step back, inhale deeply and then slowly exhale. As our heartbeats slow and our minds clear we can recognize that, while they are not at the top of the standings, the Tampa Bay Lightning are also not at the bottom of the standings. In fact, they are in a better spot than most. Well, technically they are right in the middle (they are 16th in the league in points and point percentage), but the point still stands.
They are also ahead of last season’s pace as well. Through 37 games last year, the Lightning were 17-15-5 with 39 points. They were also coming off back-to-back losses to Florida and New York, and we’re pretty sure the world was ending back then as well.
If we take the 30,000-foot look at the season so far, we can safely say that the Lightning are a good team, a borderline playoff team, that has some flaws, but can go out and win on just about any night of the season. So, they are, in fact, like 75% of the teams in the NHL. In the age of parity and salary caps, there is a razor-thin line between winning and losing every night and it’s a tough league in which to pick up points.
That’s something you already know. Hockey ain’t all sunshine and rainbows. It can be a very mean and nasty business, and it doesn’t care how good you can be, it will beat you to your knees and leave you there if you let it. It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. After all, that’s how winning is done!
Wait, sorry…slipped into inspirational movie quote mode there for a second.
However, noted philosopher Robert Balboa does have a point. The good teams in hockey take their hits and move forward. Every team in this league will go through a bad stretch, and face adversity. It’s how they react to it that matters. Can the Lightning push through this and get better? Can they make it to the end of the season in a better place than they are now. The goal of the regular season is to make the playoffs, and Tampa Bay is still on track to do that as MoneyPuck has their playoff chances at a robust 92.8% chance.
It won’t be easy tonight as Carolina will bring their own unique style of play into the game. Expect lots of shots and almost constant pressure on the puck. There won’t be a lot of room on the ice for the Lightning. They’ll have to be quick and decisive with the puck.
That being said, the Hurricanes aren’t without their own issues and can be beat. Over the last month they are right there with the Lightning with a 7-6-1 record (Tampa Bay is 7-6-0 over the same time frame). Over the last thirty days they’re still piling up the shot attempts (984) and shots on goal (430), but they’re not actually scoring goals. At 2.64 G/G they’re ranked 19th over the last month of play. Their power play, normally a key part of their winning strategy is slumbering at 14.3%.
The goaltending situation has been in flux with Frederik Andersen on the shelf. Five different goaltenders have stepped into the crease for them this year, but they’ve seemed to have settled on Pyotr Kochetkov and old friend Dustin Tokarski as their current tandem. Kochetkov, who played with the Syracuse Crunch briefly last year, has been solid on the season with a 15-8-1 record, 2.48 GAA, and .901 SV%.
Yet, despite posting some of his best numbers over the last month (.908 SV%, 2.33 GAA, and 4.55 GSAx) he is just 4-5-1 due to the lack of offensive help.
The Lightning come into the game with their own offensive slump, having posted just five goals over their last four games. Brayden Point has been involved in three of those goals, so he’s still motoring along, but the rest of the big guns have been silent for awhile. A little sun peaked through the clouds against Anaheim as the power play finally cashed in, scoring for the first time since they put in two against the Rangers on December 28th.
While they won’t admit it, they are all grasping their sticks a little tighter and trying too much to score right now. They are forcing plays instead of just taking what comes to them and converting their opportunities. It’s happened in the past and they always find a way to snap out of it, with the “way” usually being an ugly goal that bounces off of someones shin-pads or skate. Once that happens, they start to relax and the offense starts flowing again.
While it’s not sunshine and rainbows in Tampa right now, the sky isn’t falling either. With an effort reminiscent of the one they had in Los Angeles, they can pick up a win tonight and start working their way up the standings, especially with two of their next four games against the team they’re chasing in the Boston Bruins.
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Conor Geekie
Mitchell Chaffee – Nick Paul – Mikey Eyssimont
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Gage Goncalves
Defense:
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix
Goaltender:
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Carolina Hurricanes:
Forwards:
Jack Roslovic – Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis
Eric Robinson – Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Martin Necas
Andrei Svechnikov – Jordan Staal – Jordan Martinook
Juha Jaaska – Jack Drury – Jackson Blake
Defense:
Jaccob Slavin – Brent Burns
Dmitry Orlov – Jalen Chatfield
Ty Smith – Sean Walker
Goaltenders:
Pyotr Kochetkov
Dustin Tokarski
