Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning: Game Four
Location: Amalie Arena
Time: 8:00 PM EST
Broadcast/Streaming: ABC, CBC, TVAS, SN, ESPN+
Opponent’s SBNation Site: Mile High Hockey
In Game Three finally landed their first big shot of the Stanley Cup Final. After the Avalanche put them on the ropes with a dominating Game Two performance, the return to Tampa proved advantageous as the Bolts survived a first period push (complete with an overturned goal), dominated in the second period, and held on in the third. The win was nice, but at this point, all they did was ensure a Game Five. A win tonight, however, flips the script of the series.
The success in the middle frame was directly tied to their ability to get to the middle of the ice and fire shots on net. They had 15 shot attempts at 5v5 with 11 of them finding their way on or in the net. They produced 6 high-danger chances and scored 3 times. The 6 HDCF were the most they posted in a single period all series long (in fact they only had 9 total in Games One and Two).
It showed that the Colorado defense (and goaltending) can be exploited if the Lightning can maintain possession. The longer they spend in the Avalanche zone the less time they have to worry about Nathan MacKinnon snapping his goalless streak. They managed to hold off the comeback despite getting shelled in the third period (22 shot attempts to 2). Yielding the other team a 91.57 xGF% to the other team is not exactly a path to success.
Expect Colorado to continue their strong start as they’ve absolutely dominated the first periods throughout the first three games. In the opening 20 minutes the Avalanche out attempted the Lightning 76 -53, generated 14 high danger chances to the Bolts 9, and outscored them 7 to 3 in all situations.
One of the main differences from Game Three was that Andrei Vasilevskiy was sharp from the beginning, his save on JT Compher’s rebound attempt was the real turning point of the game. With Vasy making those types of saves (and not allowing any goals at 5v5) it gave the players a little bit more freedom to press their offense, which they did in the second period.
With an optional morning skate on game day, we won’t know exactly how the Lightning are going to handle their recent rash of injuries. Coach Cooper indicated that he’s going to roll out the same line-up that he did in Game Three:
Jon Cooper said he anticipates #Bolts lineup will be the same as it was in Game 3.
So Nikita Kucherov and Nick Paul in, Brayden Point out
“It’s a lot of the same things” with Point. Cooper not ruling him out for the series.
— Kristen Shilton (@kristen_shilton) June 22, 2022
Expect the Avs to target Kucherov, not necessarily physically, but by forcing him to move with the puck. Whatever is ailing him is lower-body related and there is a good chance he won’t have his usual shiftiness.
As for Colorado, Andre Burakovsky is likely still out as he was in Denver as of yesterday. It is possible that Nazem Kadri makes his series debut, but if he does, he won’t be at 100%. The decision Jared Bednar has to make is if Kadri at 75% is better than the options he has in the line-up right now like Nico Strum or Nicolas Aube-Kubel.
He also hasn’t announced his goaltender yet. Darcy Kuemper was let down by his defense in Game Three, but also struggled with some stoppable goals and was fighting off the shots he did stop. Pascal Francouz has been better than Kuemper in the playoffs, but still has posted average numbers. Entering the series he had a .906 SV%, 2.86 GAA, and -1.72 goals saved above average.
No matter who is in net for the Avalanche, the Lightning have to continue to get the pucks on net. Create chaos in front of the net, get to the loose pucks, and keep them on their heels. Win tonight and it’s a best-of-three. A loss puts them on the brink and forces them to have to win three straight with two of the games in Colorado. So, yeah, no pressure.
Tampa Bay Lightning Potential Lines
Forwards
Ondrej Palat — Steven Stamkos — Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel — Anthony Cirelli — Alex Killorn
Nick Paul — Ross Colton— Corey Perry
Patrick Maroon — Pierre-Edoauard Bellemare — Riley Nash
Defense
Victor Hedman — Jan Rutta
Ryan McDonagh — Erik Cernak
Mikhail Sergachev — Zach Bogosian
Goaltenders
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brian Elliott
Colorado Avalanche Potential Lines
Forwards
Gabriel Landeskog — Nathan MacKinnon — Valeri Nichushkin
Artturi Lehkonen — J.T. Compher — Mikko Rantanen
Alex Newhook — Nico Strum — Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Andrew Cogliano — Darren Helm — Logan O’Connor
Defense
Devon Toews — Cale Makar
Jack Johnson — Josh Manson
Bowen Byram — Erik Johnson
Goaltenders
Pavel Francouz
Darcy Kuemper
