Congratulations on everyone to surviving the first half of the 2024-25 Tampa Bay Lightning season. The Bolt’s 5-2 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday marked their 41st game of the season and marked the official midway mark. Hopefully, the up-and-down nature of the season so far hasn’t caused too much turmoil in your life, and y’all are going to be okay for the next 41 games (well, technically 39 because we’re posting this a few days after the halfway point).
Before we get too much further along in this breakdown, the prosecution (you, The Commenterri) will concede that this is an overall view of the season, while the defense (us, the writers) concede that the Lightning are currently going through a rough stretch. There is no need to litigate the current state of the team in the comments. Cool?
So, the general view of the Tampa Bay Lightning through 41 games is that things are going okay. Not great, but not terrible. Good, but could be better. Not as good as the Cup years, but better than last season. How much better than last season? Well, let’s take a look!
Stats at 5v5 | 2023-2024 | 2024-2025 |
Record | 19-17-5 (43 points) | 22-16-3 (47 points) |
GF/60 | 2.43 (23rd) | 2.87 (2nd) |
GA/60 | 2.98 (29th) | 2.30 (15th) |
xGF | 2.57 (18th) | 2.46 (16th) |
xGA | 2.68 (19th) | 2.32 (10th) |
SCF | 28.89 (10th) | 27.07 (8th) |
SCA | 26.65 (12th) | 24.83 (9th) |
HDCF | 11.39 (14th) | 11.76 (4th) |
HDCA | 11.09 (15th) | 9.49 (7th) |
SH% | 8.55% (15th) | 10.34% (3rd) |
SV% | .900 (30th) | .918 (9th) |
We’ll get to special teams in a minute, but the overall look at the 5v5 numbers is pretty good. The offensive numbers are up and the defensive numbers are down. When the Lightning did their post-mortem of last year’s season, one of their conclusions was that they just weren’t good enough at even-strength. Considering that the bulk of play comes at 5v5, it seems like a prime area to improve. The good news is that they have been successful.
Only the Washington Capitals have scored more often at 5v5 through the first half of the season and the acquisition of Jake Guentzel has been a big part of that success. He has 23 (10 goals, 13 assists) points through 40 games, a vast improvement on the player he will unfairly be compared to for at least another two seasons – Steven Stamkos. The Captain had just 12 (4 goals, 8 assists) points at even strength by this point last season. Guentzel will never replicate the impact Stamkos had on the franchise, but his production on the ice has been a tremendous boost.
However, just one player isn’t responsible for the Lightning’s goal-scoring ascension. Anthony Cirelli had 11 points (4 goals, 7 assists) at 5v5 through the first half of last season. This year he’s at 21 points (9 goals, 12 assists). The same goes for the other half of his brain, Brandon Hagel (20 points last year vs. 30 points this year). The fact that Hagel and Cirelli have produced also lends credence to the fact that the Lightning have had two legit scoring lines this year, unlike last season when they were heavily reliant on just the top line.
Where can they find some improvement? The bottom-six of course. Last year, players like Luke Glendening (6 goals), Mikey Eyssimont (6 goals), and yes, Tanner Jeannot (5 goals) were chipping in at least the occasional goal. This season, not so much. Zemgus Girgensons is at 0 goals, Glendening is at 1, and Cameron Atkinson is at 2. As many have pointed out, that’s just not good enough. It is a spot for improvement, though. If the Lightning can get even a tick of more production from them, it’ll be a boon for their play.
The good news is that while the bottom-six isn’t scoring, they aren’t getting caved in by the opposition in terms of goals either. While their goal differentials aren’t pretty, their goals against are okay. Glendening is at 2.29 GA/60 and Girgensons is at 2.08 GA/60. The fourth line is simply where offense goes to die. Which isn’t the end of the world.
It’s also a trend that we’re seeing with the entire team. The Bolts have shaved off 0.68 GA/60 from year to year. That’s an impressive improvement and a positive sign for the playoffs. The teams that advance are the ones that keep the puck out of their own net, and that’s something that Tampa Bay has drastically improved on since last year. It’s been an overall improvement as well as their expected goals against, scoring chances against, and high-danger chances against are all better than the first half of the 2023-24 season.
When the numbers show improvement over 41 games, it isn’t luck. It’s a sustained improvement over time. The Lightning are fundamentally better than they were last year. They’re better at defending in front of their net and better at getting the puck out of the zone. Sure, they occasionally get running around in their own zone, but nowhere near as much as they did last season.
Not only that they are also getting better goaltending. After struggling near the bottom of the rankings for the first half of the year, the duo of Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jonas Johansson are in the top third. Should either be considered Vezina front runners? No, but they’re doing what they need to do which is stopping more than the shots they’re expected to stop and keeping the Lightning in games. Vasilevskiy in particular has been better (which, considering he had back surgery last year, isn’t a surprise). He hasn’t reached peak form yet but has performed as a top-ten goalie in the league.
As for special teams. Look, no one likes change, and it took the Lightning a little while to realize that they wouldn’t be able to do things the same way they did when Steven Stamkos scared the bejeezus out of goaltenders with his shot from the left circle. Without that threat, some things had to change, and eventually the Lightning figured it out and are converting at almost the same rate (25.8% vs. 27.1%) as they did last year. If you had said at the beginning of the season that, despite losing one of the best power play threats in a generation, the Lightning would be just over 1% less effective on the power play, but wildly more effective at 5v5, we’d take it in a heartbeat.
The power play is also a little more adaptable this year as well. When they’ve gone through their slumps recently, they’ve been able to mix things up (usually by having Kucherov flip to the left side) and get back on track. One thing about the power play over the previous few seasons that it while it was lethal, it was predictable. They can change things up a little more now, which should prove beneficial in a playoff series.
On the other side of the special teams’ coin, the penalty kill has been a little more effective (81.5% vs. 80.7%) but way more dangerous as they’ve already recorded 8 (!) short-handed goals compared to just the one this season. The last time the Lightning had at least 8 short-handed goals in an entire season was all the way back in 2018-19 when they had 12. The ability to score while having fewer players on the ice than your opponent is a tremendous asset both in terms of the score of the game and how teams approach their own power play when preparing to face the Lightning. “You have to watch out for Hagel and Cirelli when we’re on the power play” is a phrase that has echoed through more than one opponent’s locker room this season.
So, to sum up. Things are going okay for the Lightning right now. Even with their recent run of play, MoneyPuck has them at a projected 98.1 points with an 88.4% chance of making the playoffs. They could use some more depth scoring for sure. If they can start generating some offense from the bottom-six that should help them be a little more consistent in their play.
They aren’t the juggernauts they were from 2018-2022, but they are still a very good team, especially when they execute their game plan over an entire 60 minutes. When they’re on, they’re one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, however, they aren’t at a point where they can play badly for long stretches and still win games.
With strong underlying numbers on the season, they should be able to overcome rough stretches of play and keep munching up the points. Are they a Stanley Cup favorite? No, but they are slightly outplaying the expectations we had for them at the beginning of the season. We’ll see what kind of tweaks or additions they make over the next month now that management has a grasp of who they are.