Game Nineteen: Dallas Stars (12-6-0) at Tampa Bay Lightning (10-6-2)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, Victory+, ESPN+, 102.5 FM
Odds: Lightning -108
Turn the page. We’ve heard that a lot during the Jon Cooper Era in Tampa. The good teams have the ability to move on from both the very good and the very bad in order to focus on the task at hand. We’ll see if the 2024-25 Tampa Bay Lightning are a good team as they try and put Thursday night’s debacle behind them and focus on the task of beating a very good team in the Dallas Stars.
If they can’t, and if they start “skating in quicksand” as their coach put it after the overtime loss, they won’t even sniff an overtime point against the Stars, a team that maybe, just maybe, has finally found the right combination of youth and experience to make it back to the Stanley Cup Final. Led somewhat surprisingly by a rejuvenated Matt Duchene (21 points in 18 games), the stats column for the Stars features 7 players with at least 10 points and 6 players with at least 5 goals.
Youngsters like Logan Stankoven (15 points), Jason Robertson (11 points), and Wyatt Johnston (9 points) are mixed in with the ageless like Duchene and Tyler Sequin (15 points in 14 games) to lead a team that is seventh in 5v5 scoring, averaging 2.88 G/60. Combine that with a defense that is currently fourth in the league, allowing just 1.90 G/60, and it’s no wonder that they’re 12-6. Unfortunately, they’re stuck in a division with Winnipeg and Minnesota, so despite the impressive stats, they currently sit in third, 8 points behind the Jets.
Oddly enough, 3 of their 6 losses have come against Atlantic Division teams, so the Lightning have that in their favor. Unfortunately, that might be the only thing. The Stars have been playing some of their best hockey of late as they have won four of their last five, allowing two or fewer goals in each of those victories while scoring 23 goals during the overall stretch. Somehow, the lowly Anaheim Ducks are the only team to beat them of late.
Unlike the defensive heat map that we showed about the Columbus Blue Jackets in our most recent preview, the Stars are doing what they need to do in front of the net, which is minimizing shot attempts.
Their ability to drive their offense from their defensive players has helped keep the puck out of their zone. Miro Heiskanen is one of the best blueline skaters in the league, and 23-year-old Thomas Harley seems intent on developing along the same path. Meanwhile, Esa Lindell is piling up top-pairing minutes as a staunch defender. All three of those defenders are above league average when it comes to carrying the puck out of their own zone. When a team can rely on their defense to skate the puck out of the zone instead of having forwards hang back waiting for passes, it gives them so many more options through the neutral zone.
According to NHL Edge, the Stars spend just 37.9% of their time on the ice at 5v5 in their own zone, which ranks in the 87th percentile. They are also well above league average at time spent in the neutral zone with 19.4% of their time between the blue lines. That helps limit the amount of high-danger chances they face on a nightly basis.
Fewer high-danger chances against make things easier for their goaltender, and that seems a bit unfair when that goaltender is Jake Oettinger. “Otter” is back to his puck-stopping shenanigans as he is sporting a healthy .917 SV% and 10.11 GSAx.
That’s a lot of words to say that the Lightning have their work cut out for them tonight. We know that they have the ability to shut things down in their own zone and play responsibly (see – wins against New Jersey and Winnipeg). That’s the “recipe” that they didn’t follow against Columbus that led to the fire-wagon hockey we saw on Thursday. There were too many times where the defense got caught pinching up too far, or too flat-footed against the Blue Jackets’ forwards, leading to easy zone entries and prime scoring chances.
Dallas will be looking to sneak their forwards behind the defense on breakout passes to see if they can generate some of those opportunities. While the Lightning defense has regained their form this season, they aren’t the quickest skaters in the league, and aren’t going to catch anyone in a skate race, so they have to be aware of when to pinch in, and when to make the cross-ice passes high in their zone.
Chances are that Nick Paul will be out again (we’ll know more after the morning skate) so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Coach Cooper elects to return to the 11/7 rotation he found success with during the last home stand. Cameron Atkinson and Gage Goncalves were okay as individuals against Columbus, but the ability to mix up his forwards, and control the ice time of his defense might sway him in that direction.
Tonight’s game kicks off a three-game set against some pretty good competition (Colorado and Washington come into town net), and the Bolts can’t afford to play loose in their own zone if they want to keep munching up the points.
