Red Wings at Lightning Preview and Game Thread: Time to finish strong

Game Seventy-nine: Detroit Red Wings (36-34-7) at Tampa Bay Lightning (45-26-7)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa

TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, FDSNDET, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning

Know the Opponents: Winging it in Motown

Story Lines and Notes

The Tampa Bay Lightning aren’t exactly limping into the playoffs, but they’re also not rolling in like a supernova. In the month since the trade deadline they are 11th in the league in points based off of a 8-5-3 record. It’s not great, but they’ve been munching up points at a rate that allowed them to pass the Florida Panthers and stave off the hard-charging Ottawa Senators (11-5-1 since the deadline). Tonight they’re going up against a team that, not so long ago, was neck-and-neck with them. Detroit has since spun out and are clinging to gossamer-thin string of playoff hope.

The Bolts have a chance to finish them off tonight, but more important, they have a chance to round their game into playoff form. For much of their game against the Maple Leafs on Wednesday, the Lightning were showing a little playoff life. They battled hard, they shot the puck, and they matched Toronto play for play despite not having one of their best forwards (Jake Guentzel) for the entire game, and one of their best face-off guys (Luke Glendening) for much of it. It was nice to see the effort after a road trip that had a lot of meh in it at times.

One thing the Lightning have been doing consistently is keeping the puck out of the net at even-strength. Their 1.96 GA/60 at 5v5 is 7th in the league since the trade deadline with only the Panthers (1.88) allowing fewer goals on a nightly basis in the Eastern Conference. The Bolts have been a top-10 team in expected goals against (2.34), scoring chances against (24.8), and high-danger chances against (9.8) as well.

The play of their goaltenders has helped as Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jonas Johansson have combined for a .922 save percentage since early March. Vasilevskiy has been especially sharp with a .923 SV%, 1.91 SV%, 8.72 GSAx, and 2 shutouts in all aspects of play over the last month. It’s enough to get him in the Vezina conversation, but not quite enough to dethrone Connor Hellebuyck at this point. For the Lightning, no player is more important to their postseason success than Vasilevskiy, so to see him back up to his old tricks after a down year is a really good sign.

Including tonight’s game, the Bolts have four games to go in the regular season, and depending on what line-up the Panthers can roll out next Tuesday, they are likely to be favorited in all four. Expect at least one more start for Johansson down the stretch, but the Lightning have a decent shot at cracking the 100-point barrier, something they haven’t done since their last trip to the Stanley Cup in 2021-22.

While the overall goal totals seem to indicate they’re relying on the top line a little too heavily as Brayden Point (9 goals), Nikita Kucherov (5 goals), and Jake Guentzel (5 goals) over the last ten games, they’ve spread out their 5v5 scoring pretty well. Oliver Bjorkstrand and Anthony Cirelli have three goals each at 5v5 while Gage Goncalves and Brandon Hagel each have a pair. That’s definitely a bit more depth than they had going into the playoffs last season.

The fourth line has struggled a bit as it seems Zemgus Girgensons and Luke Glendening haven’t adapted to the rotating cast of linemates they’ve been assigned during the Bolts recent reliance on rolling out eleven forwards. Even their defensive numbers, which were a strong point earlier in the season have taken a bit of a hit. With three of the next four games on home ice, we’ll see if the Bolts go back to a 12/6 rotation to bring a little consistency to that fourth line.

Technically, the Lightning still have a chance to catch and pass the Maple Leafs for the top of the division, especially with the Leafs having a slightly tougher schedule, but for all intents and purposes, the Bolts are probably finishing in the second slot in the Atlantic. Barring a total collapse by the Panthers, that’ll line them up with yet another Battle for Florida. Regardless of how healthy the Panthers are, the Lightning will need to be at the top of their game to beat them in the first round, so they need to keep that playoff focus going, even against the Red Wings.

Stats

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

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Detroit Red Wings

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