Once again, the road to the Stanley Cup Final goes through the state of Florida. The Florida Panthers are in the Eastern Conference Final for the third straight year, and are looking to match the Tampa Bay Lightning’s stretch of three straight Cup appearances. Their opponent, the Carolina Hurricanes. It’s not the first time these teams have met in the ECF as the Panthers swept the Hurricanes back in 2023.
Can the Hurricanes get over the hump and finally get to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2006? Or, will they fall to the Florida juggernaut? Carolina has coasted through the first two rounds with an 8-2 record, knocking off the New Jersey Devils in five games in the opening round before shutting down the best regular season team in the East, the Washington Capitals, in five games in round two. Florida knocked off the Lightning in five games in their first round, stumbled out of the gate by losing their first two games against Toronto before roaring back to take four of the last five games.
Both teams have advanced simply by sticking to their systems. For Carolina it’s a shot-happy offense backed up by a stifling defense. They are generating 74.56 SA/60 at 5v5, which trails only Edmonton in the playoffs. Meanwhile they are only allowing 52.29 SA/60, which is fourth in the playoffs. While teams have been able to generate a few scoring chances against them, Frederik Andersen has been stout in net with a .909 SV% on high-danger shots against at 5v5 and a .937 SV% overall.
Offensively, Andrei Svechnikov is second in the playoffs with 8 goals (trailing Mikko Rantanen’s 9), but after that it has been a true team effort in scoring. Seth Jarvis is second on the team with just four goals, but thirteen other Hurricanes have found the back of the net at least once.
As for special teams, they’re connecting at a 28.1% rate on the power play while killing off 93.3% of the penalties against them. They killed off all 15 short-handed chances against the Devils, and then held Alex Ovechkin and his cohorts to just two power-play goals on 15 chances.
If Andersen can keep up his play (and stay healthy), and if the ‘Canes can make the Panthers pay on the power play, they have an excellent chance of winning this series.
Lightning fans saw firsthand what the Panthers can do as a healthy team. They forecheck, they hit, and they shut teams down when they have the lead. Toronto fans experienced it as well as Florida absolutely steamrolled the Maple Leafs in Game Seven. Outside of a six or seven minute stretch in the first period (after Florida had racked up the first 21 shot attempts), Toronto was outplayed on home ice for the entire night.
Florida is allowing just 22.93 scoring chances against per 60 minutes at 5v5 with only 10.41 of those considered high-danger. A stifling defense sets up their offense, and their 3.37 GF/60 at 5v5 leads all teams left in the playoffs. They are without a doubt, the most complete team in the postseason. Yes, it pains us to say that.
The Panthers have spread their scoring out as well with 17 different players recording a goal with Sam Bennett leading the way with six goals. Nine other players have at least three goals as every line has contributed to the offense.
Much like the Hurricanes, the Panthers have relied on a strong penalty kill to stall out their opponents offense. They are second, trailing just Carolina, with an 89.5% success rate short-handed despite being the third-most penalized team in the postseason as they’ve been short-handed 38 times through 12 games.
While both teams play a forecheck-heavy, defensively-heavy style, they do differ in their physicality. Florida leads the playoffs with 46.42 hits per game while Carolina is seventh with 37.11. If the officials decide to call this series closely (we can dream) that could be an advantage for the Hurricanes.
This should be a fun series between two teams that are pretty similar in what they want to do. Whichever team is able to establish their forecheck consistently should have the upper hand. Our prediction – Carolina in six.
The Schedule
Game 1: Tuesday May 20 8:00 PM EST Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes TNT/Max
Game 2: Thursday May 22 8:00 PM EST Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes TNT/truTV/Max
Game 3: Saturday May 24 8:00 PM EST Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers TNT/truTV/Max
Game 4: Monday May 26 8:00 PM EST Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers TNT/truTV/Max
Game 5*: Wednesday May 28 8:00 PM EST Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes TNT/truTV/Max
Game 6*: Friday May 30 8:00 PM EST Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers TNT/truTV/Max
Game 7*: Sunday June 1 8:00 PM EST Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes TNT/truTV/Max
*if neccesary
