On Friday, the Tampa Bay Lightning did something they haven’t done for almost an entire month – had a long, almost fully attended practice. Due to the compressed nature of the schedule at the end of the season, the deluge of injuries both major and minor, and a coach that favors rest for his veterans over ice time, the Lightning really haven’t had a full fledged practice session since shortly after the Olympic Break.
The most encouraging part of the day was that everybody was on the ice. Well, almost everybody. Pontus Holmberg, who is expected to miss the first round at the very least with an upper-body injury, and Victor Hedman, who is still on personal leave, were not available. After the practice, when asked about their status, Coach Jon Cooper stated that it would be “addressed” over the next few days.
As for who was on the ice, there really weren’t many surprises as to how the players lined up (with the exception of Oliver Bjorkstrand as a fourth-line center. The line rushes that they had at practice should be pretty similar to what the Lightning go with in Game One on Sunday.
All statistical information is at 5v5 and courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
Gage Goncalves – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Time on ice: 129 minutes
Goals For – Goals Against: 18 – 4 (81.82%)
Expected Goals For – Expected Goals Against: 8.52 – 4.93 (63.35%)
Scoring Chances For – Scoring Chances Against: 71-55 (56.35%)
High Danger Chances For – High Danger Chances Against: 35-18 (66.04%)
When the Lightning were rolling through the competition from mid-December through January this was the team doing a lot of damage. The lower-body injury to Point shelved it for awhile, but it was reunited in late February. After the break, they played together for a bit, but with injuries requiring Coach Cooper to shuffle players around the trio hasn’t been together much of late.
That’s a shame, because they really are one of the best combinations the Lightning have had over the past few seasons. The Point – Kucherov connection goes back for multiple seasons, and, after a rough start, Gage Goncalves has shown that he has the skill to play with the duo. The Lightning are going to lean on this line to score at 5v5 in the series, so expect Montreal to counter with their best defensive line and pairing.
The key to this line will be getting Brayden Point rolling once again. He had a bad start to the season, found himself after missing a couple of games, got hurt again, and then struggled to regain his form. His scoring issues have been well documented and the 12 goals he scored at 5v5 are the fewest he’s had since he put up 11 as a rookie way back in 2016-17.
If there is anything positive to pull out of the season it is that his underlying numbers, while not super exciting, weren’t that far off from what he’s done over the course of his career. his iXG/60 of 0.76 was actually slightly better than the 0.73 he put up last season. He shot the puck a little less this season and generated fewer scoring chances (7.44 – 8.57) but his individual high-danger chances per 60 of 3.54 was just a few ticks off of last year.
It’s felt like he’s been off just slightly over the past few weeks. He’s starting to generate chances again (10 high-danger chances over his last 8 games), but they just aren’t going in the net. Based on his track record, that should change It won’t hurt to have Kucherov setting him up once again.
Goncalves will also look to feed chances to Point, but it will be important for him to not defer too much. He has to be able to keep the defense honest and draw attention. His shot is better than folks give him credit for and if he uses it a little more, than it will give Kucherov even more room to work his magic.
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Jake Guentzel
Time on ice: 125 minutes
Goals For – Goals Against: 9-6 (60%)
Expected Goals For – Expected Goals Against: 8.73 – 5.24 (62.49%)
Scoring Chances For – Scoring Chances Against: 93-59 (61.18%)
High Danger Chances For – High Danger Chances Against: 38-24 (61.29%)
There aren’t many teams that can roll out a second line comprised of players that have a combined 59 goals at 5v5, but here we are. Obviously, they haven’t scored them all while playing again, but each member has the potential to score at an impressive rate. Brandon Hagel (23 5v5 goals), Cirelli (15), and Jake Guentzel (21) have all had strong years and give the Bolts a decided advantage if the team’s top lines cancel each other out.
They haven’t played together as much as it seems (Kucherov was the top line mate for Hagel and Cirelli this season) and it’s kind of odd that they can be successful because there really isn’t a true puck distributor on the line. Instead, they are three players who really like to get to the front of the net and cause a little ruckus.
What they are good at, especially Hagel and Cirelli, is attacking on the rush. That duo is extremely skilled at creating turnovers at their own blueline and breaking the other way to create odd-skater rushes. They could really pressure some of the younger players on the Montreal blueline.
On any team without Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel would likely have drawn some MVP interest. He was, without a doubt, the Lightning’s most consistent player throughout the season. Even with Kucherov getting off to a slow by his standards start, Guentzel was producing. His 21 goals at 5v5 were the most he’s scored since the 2021-22 season and his 26 assists matched a career high. While a lot of that production came while playing on a line with Point, Guentzel has the versatility to adjust his game to play with Hagel and Cirelli.
Expect this line to get a lot of the draws in the offensive zone. During the regular season 53% of their face-offs came at the other team’s face-off dots. With their ability to battle along the boards and in front of the net, they can eat up a lot of zone time and wear on the other teams. There isn’t going to be a lot of dynamic action when they are on the ice, but they can be an absolute nightmare to play against when they are on their game.
How they are used in their match-ups will go a long way to defining their effectiveness in the series. If Coach Cooper can get the Yanni Gourde line to negate the Nick Suzuki line, then Cirelli and his friends will be counted on to chip in that secondary scoring that is needed in the playoffs. But if needed, they can play that defense-first shutdown line that can harass Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Jaroslav Slafkovsky.
Zemgus Girgensons – Yanni Gourde – Nick Paul
Time on ice: 31 minutes
Goals For – Goals Against: 1-0 (100%)
Expected Goals For – Expected Goals Against: 0.97-1.30 (42.73%)
Scoring Chances For – Scoring Chances Against: 6-12 (33.33%)
High Danger Chances For – High Danger Chances Against: 4-5 (44.4%)
All centers all the time!
Where have you gone Pontus Holmberg? This is where Holmberg’s injury really affects the team. The Gourde, Girgensons, Holmberg line was far and away Coach Cooper’s most used line during the regular season as they spent over 614 minutes together at 5v5. Since the Swede’s injury they’ve been looking for a replacement, and it seems they’ve settled on Nick Paul (for now).
It hasn’t been Paul’s best season as he started it on injured reserve and has been searching for a role ever since. One thing he has done well is win face-offs, and that should help this line in their role in shutting down the Montreal offense. Paul is at 54.07% in the dot at 5v5, the only forward over 50% at even-strength that has regularly taken draws. Jake Guentzel is right at 50% and Anthony Cirelli is at 49.57% (shoutout to Curtis Douglas for winning 3-out-5 draws. Never forgotten!).
Their short sample size isn’t impressive, especially if they do draw the Suzuki line in the first game, but they were really solid in the Detroit game where they drew a similar assignment against Dylan Larkin’s line. They don’t have to outscore Montreal’s top line, they just have to do their best to keep them off of the board. Chipping in some offense will be a bonus. If the bulk of their ice time is spent in Montreal’s zone or the middle of the rink, even if they don’t score, it will bode well for the Bolts.
The big question mark will come if they struggle against Caufield and Friends. If Coach Cooper has to switch the match-up to the Cirelli line, can Nick Paul and Yanni Gourde find a way to put the puck in the net? Over the past few post-seasons, it’s been the third and fourth lines from the opponents that have really troubled the Bolts. It would be nice if the Lightning can find a way to flip the script.
Gourde and Girgensons have shown an ability to generate scoring chances when they get into the offensive zone, but can they get the puck from one end of the ice to the other without The Backpack? That was Holmberg’s best attribute – the ability to get the puck in his zone, shield off opponents and get the puck into the offensive zone. Paul has the size to fend off checkers, but doesn’t quite have the wheels that Holmberg had.
Corey Perry – Oliver Bjorkstrand – Scott Sabourin/Dominic James
Not enough data for stats.
Nothing like throwing out a line that hasn’t played together all regular season. Chances are the Lightning are hoping Dominic James is ready to go and he can take the middle spot between Perry and Bjorkstrand. That would give them a little jump and the ability to carry the puck from zone to zone.
Yes, Sabourin gives them the physical edge, and he’s outplayed expectations this season. That being said, this series is unlikely to be as physical as the last two regular season meetings. Yes, Josh Anderson is going to do Josh Anderson things and there is always the lurking presence of Arber Xhekaj looming on the ice, but neither team wants to hurt their team by taking dumb penalties. The Canadiens aren’t the Florida Panthers where they have to constantly step over the edge of decency to be effective.
Skill and speed should be more important than retribution and the ability to throw a big check five seconds after the puck has left the zone. If James is ready to go, expect him to be in the line-up. If that happens, this line could sneak in a goal or two. Perry has that innate ability to be in the right place to score goals in the post-season. Bjorkstrand might not have had the best season of his career, but shooters shoot and if he gets some looks at the net, the puck could start going in for him.
The big key for this line will be to get the puck from their own end to the other team’s end and then get off the ice. If they get caught up in their own end and can’t exit, it won’t be pretty for the Bolts.
The Lightning’s practiced showed how they want to start the series. The chances of them finishing the series with the same exact lines is slim to none. Even without Coach Cooper’s love of line-switching, the flow of the series, injuries, and puck luck will force changes. That’s the beauty of playing four-to-seven games in a row against the same opponent. Which team makes the correct adjustments the most times will emerge with the win.
