Panthers at Lightning Game 5 Preview: Time to write a new story in this series

Game Five: Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning (Florida leads 3-1)

Time: 7:30 PM EST

Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa

TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, Scripps, ESPN2, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -112

Know the Opponents: Litterbox Cats

Story Lines and Notes

There really isn’t much to talk about for tonight. The Tampa Bay Lightning are now up against it. One more loss and the season is over. The message in the locker room is simple – win or go home. There is no reason to doubt that the Lightning are going to give their best effort tonight. Throughout the season, whenever they were backed up against the wall, they fought back.

Of course, the issue during the regular season was that they would lose that energy and slide back after a few games, so they were constantly riding that wave up-and-down. They just have to figure out how to win tonight and worry about Game 6 tomorrow.

The story of the series so far is that the Lightning have been good, but not good enough against the defending champions. As the chart below shows, it’s been a fairly close series at 5v5 with the biggest difference being Florida’s ability to actually get their shots on net. The shot attempts themselves are dead even at 165. Take away blocked shots and they’re still even at 115, but the actual shots on net is 77-63 in favor of the Panthers.

It’s not a huge difference, especially spread over four games, but it’s been enough to be the difference. Some might say the special teams have been a spot to focus on, but take away Game 1, and neither team has scored with the extra skater. The Bolts have had more advantages, though. They’re averaging 8:39 of power play time per game, the most in the playoffs by two minutes. Florida is at 6:05, which is fourth, but a full power play behind the Bolts.

Florida’s ability to neuter the Lightning’s power play offense has been the biggest (non DoPS-related) story of the series. It’s been such a struggle that not only are they not scoring on the power play, they aren’t gaining any momentum from them either. They have 1.84 xG on the power play and their 64.22 CF/60 is by far the lowest of the remaining 16 (well, 15 teams) left playing.

To channel our inner Phil Esposito – maybe it’s time to shoot the puck. The Lightning rely on crisp passing to set up prime chances on the power play. They like to move the puck left-to-right, often through the middle to get off of those one-timers. The Panthers have absolutely eliminated that option. There are no seams, nor is there any time for the forwards on the wings to set anything up. At this point, they have to start shooting from the points and edges to try and draw the shot-blockers out.

The absolute best start for the Lightning tonight would be for them to open the scoring early with a power play goal. Instill a little confidence and loosen the grip on the sticks a bit to let them settle into their game and keep this series going. We’ll see if they can get that rolling in the first period.

Chapter Two of the story has been the hits and the ensuing discipline, or lack of. Who should or shouldn’t have been suspended has spilled a lot of digital ink, but it doesn’t really matter at this point. The Lightning have to win with the line-up they have. That is the bottom line.

The lines below are from the morning skate where Victor Hedman and Anthony Cirelli did not participate (along with Brandon Hagel, who is definitely out). Following the practice, Coach Cooper stated that everything should be “status quo” in regards to the line-up. So, expect Cirelli and Hedman to play. The Lightning did recall Max Crozier just in case, but the coach isn’t expecting him to play.

So, instead of lamenting what has come before, it’s time to decide how they’re going to change the future. They’ve been good, but they haven’t been at their best. They need that tonight to write their new ending.

Stats

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forwards:

Defense:

Goaltenders:

Florida Panthers

Forwards:

Defense:

Goaltenders: