Game Number Thirty-One: Florida Panthers (21-11-2) at Tampa Bay Lightning (18-10-2)
Time: 5:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa
TV/Steam/Radio: FDSNSUN, Scripps, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning -105
If the Tampa Bay Lightning were going to have two games before heading into a nice long holiday break, at least the games are going to be against the Florida Panthers. There is little chance the players (or coaching staff) are looking past the next two games and planning their holiday dinners. This evening’s match-up is the first of four for the Lightning against their in-state rivals as they look to extract a little revenge for the first-round elimination in last year’s playoffs.
The Bolts come into the game playing some of their best hockey of the season. Winners of four in a row and six of the last seven, the Lightning have been humming on offense as they’ve scored 34 goals over their last seven games, and on defense as they’ve given up just 13. Yes, not all of the competition has been top of charts, but you can only play the games on the schedule, and the Lightning are doing what they need to do in terms of winning the games.
Brayden Point (17 points), Nikita Kucherov (15 points), and Jake Guentzel (8 goals) are doing their thing during this most recent stretch, but they’re also getting contributions from Brandon Hagel (8 points), Anthony Cirelli (5 points) and Nick Paul (4 points). With the exception of Zemgus Girgensons and Steven Santini (who, to be fair, played just one game) has found the scoresheet over the last seven games. Before you pillage Girgensons too savagely, please note that he’s leading the team with 18 hits and has won 60% of his face-offs. Not too shabby for a fourth-liner, excuse us, a member of one of the Lightning’s four lines.
As for special teams, the Lightning are clicking on 42.1% of their power plays and stopping 88.2% of the power plays against them. Again, not too shabby. A pair of 8-goal games has boosted their average to 4.86 per game (tops in the league over this stretch) while their 1.86 goals-against is tied for second in the league. Even while dealing with some injuries, this is pretty much peak form for the Bolts.
Now, they’re up against the defending champions.
The champs have won 21 of their 34 games so far this year, but it’s been a weird year for them. In their last two outings they’ve allowed just two total goals, but they allowed 19 in their previous four games. Their offense has been fine as they’ve averaged 3.49 goals/60 (5th in the league), which they’ve needed to offset the 3.08 GA/60 which ranks 22nd in the league.
While they are allowing a lot of actual goals on the ice, the Panthers expected goals against is a respectable 2.67, which leads us to believe that they haven’t been receiving the best goaltending so far this season. A quick look at the stats on Evolving Hockey show that the duo of Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight aren’t quite holding up their end of the bargain. Bobrovsky has a nice 16-6-1 record, but a below average .896 SV% and has posted a -2.9 GSAx on the season. Knight has a 5-5-1 record, a .890 SV%, and a -2.53 GSAx.
That being said, Bobrovsky has put together back-to-back solid starts, allowing just 2 goals against the Wild and Blues while stopping 2.74 goals more than expected per the numbers wizards at Evolving Hockey. The Panthers are at the point, that they don’t care how they win games, they just need to pick up enough points to make the playoffs. The hope is that Bob rounds back into form in time for another solid playoff run.
Offensively, the usual line of suspects are doing their thing. Sam Reinhart didn’t pocket a large free-agent contract and start drinking espresso martinis on South Beach instead of training as he leads the Panthers with 20 goals. Matthew Tkachuk has 34 points including 13 goals while Sam Bennett and Sasha Barkov are sporting double-digit goal totals.
The Lightning are in for a test tonight, and while they should get some quality looks at the net, they’re going to have to be responsible in their own zone unless they want this thing to devolve into a run-and-gun style of game that they might not have the weapons for.
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Conor Geekie
Gage Goncalves – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mikey Eyssimont
Defense:
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix
Goaltenders:
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Jonas Johansson
Florida Panthers
Forwards:
Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Sam Reinhart
Evan Rodrigues – Sam Bennett – Mackie Samoskevich
A.J. Greer – Tomas Nosek – Jonah Gadkovich
Defense:
Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola – Dmitry Kulikov
Uvis Balnskis – Nate Schmidt
Goaltenders:
Sergei Bobrovsky
Spencer Knight
