For Subscribers: A Deeper Look into the Ryan McDonagh Trade

Well now Mr. Julien BriseBois. You certainly know how to hijack the news cycle in-between playoff rounds. As the Dallas Stars get ready to take on the Edmonton Oilers and the New Rangers await the Florida Panthers, the Tampa Bay Lightning general manager pulled off a fairly important hockey trade. While the initial shock is still reverberating throughout the area, it\'s a decent time to take a deeper look into what it means for the Lightning moving forward.

First off, in a vacuum, this is a pretty good deal for the Lightning. Ryan McDonagh knows the team, he knows the expectations, and is comfortable playing for Jon Cooper. Even at 34-years-old, he helps Mr. BriseBois achieve his top off-season goal of putting together a team that is better at keeping the puck out of the net. If the salary cap wasn\'t a factor, or Steven Stamkos needing a new deal wasn\'t a factor, most pundits would consider a second-round pick and a seventh-round pick a decent price for a top-four defenseman who can log 20+ minutes a game.

Sadly, the salary cap is a factor, but not just for the Lightning. Nashville needed to clear some cap space this summer and they were able to knock $6.75 million off of the books for this year and next without retaining any salary. In return for McDonagh and a 2024 fourth-round pick that originally belonged to Edmonton (which leads to the possibility of the Bolts having the Oilers\' 2024 AND 2025 fourth rounders) the Predators received the Lightning\'s 2025 second-round pick and their 2024 seventh-round pick.

During the trade deadline, the second-round pick was considered the Lightning\'s strongest asset, but they managed to pick up Anthony Duclair and Matt Dumba without sacrificing it, which allowed Mr. BriseBois to put together a deal when Barry Trotz called him to gauge interest in sending McDonagh back home.

With the move the Lightning now do not have a first or second-round pick in either the upcoming draft or the next one. That\'s not ideal for swinging any future moves this summer or at next year\'s trade deadline. What is ideal is that Mr. BriseBois was able to add a top-four defenseman to his roster without wading into the free agent market and committing a lot of term and money to a stranger.

He wasn\'t likely to find a player that can help bring structure to the Lightning defense for under McDonagh\'s $6.75 million cap hit and now he doesn\'t have to worry about it. Mr. BriseBois isn\'t at the point where he is worrying about the long-term future of the team, either. He is still pushing as many chips to the table as possible in order to keep the window open.

Picking up McDonagh makes the Lightning defense better, thereby making the team better. Does it make the Lightning the favorite for next season\'s Stanley Cup? No, but it does keep them in the conversation. It\'s a signal to the rest of the league, and to his players, that he doesn\'t believe the Cup window is closed. The odds are still long, but in reality, like he said in his post trade press conference, they are long for everyone,

\"The odds are against everyone and are really small. But our job is to increase those odds, push them forward and make it a little more likely that, if the stars align for us, we can go on another magical run.\"

McDonagh was there for the team\'s last magical run, but will he be the same player he was during his first stint with the team? Probably not. After all he\'s two years older, and years for physical defensemen who block a lot of shots and are over the age of 30 add up like dog years. He added another 3,141 minutes of regular season ice time, another 304 blocked shots, and another 102 hits to his body since he last donned the blue and white.

Yet, last season was one of his better ones, especially down the stretch when the Predators caught fire. His player card from Evolving Hockey should be a joyous site to Lightning fans who are crying out for help on the blue line:

It\'s important to focus on the blue columns in the 5v5 sections. That\'s what he is being brought in for, not for special teams play (although he is likely to see some minutes shorthanded). In his 74 games with the Preds last season, he averaged 21:47 of ice time, with 16:58 of that at 5v5. Only future hall of famer Roman Josi was on the ice for longer than McDonagh last season.

When McDonagh was out there, the Predators goals-against-per-60 was 2.01, by far the best number of any Nashville defenseman that played more than 20 games. For comparison, the only Bolts defenseman to post a GA/60 under 2.01 was Haydn Fleury, who was at 1.86 in his 24 games. Other than that, the numbers skyrocketed. Next on the list were Victor Hedman at 2.65 and Erik Cernak at 2.67 for the season. That bodes well for McDonagh helping keep the puck out of the net.

The folks over at Hockey Viz show why he was able to help Nashville defensively.

The bottom-left visual shows the sweet, sweet dark blue color of other teams attempting fewer shots from in front of the net when McD is on the ice. He is a big, physical player that knows how to shut opponents out in front of the net and can clear out the dangerous area in front of his goaltender.

Another one of his stronger attributes was mentioned by Coach Cooper in the tribute video that the Lightning put together for McDonagh\'s return to Amalie Arena two seasons ago.

\"He\'s a stabilizer. When things are going south, McDonagh stabilizes it.\"

How many times this past season did the Lightning let a four or five minute stretch of play ruin an otherwise decent game of hockey? Their newest acquisition should help prevent those types of runs where the other team rips off two or three goals in a short amount of time.

Not everything is sunshine and rainbows (as Rocky Balboa would say ). There is the overwhelming possibility that the added miles and pucks off of the shin pads will catch up to McDonagh and his drop-off will be drastic and noticeable in the Lightning\'s defensive system. It\'s also possible that injuries start to add up for the veteran. After being an every day staple in the Lightning\'s line-up, he did miss 19 games over two seasons with the Predators for various injuries. It\'s not a lot, but it\'s not a trend that is likely to reverse as he ages.

The risks are there, but in Mr. BriseBois\' calculations, they\'re worth taking. It\'s also a risk to drop the Lightning\'s available cap room to $5.035 million with Steven Stamkos still unsigned. The initial reaction to the trade is that the Bolts won\'t be able to sign their captain. The Lightning don\'t believe that\'s true as JBB confirmed that talks are still ongoing stating,

\"We’re still able, in my mind, to get something done that makes sense for the organization with Steven even after acquiring Ryan McDonagh. Depending on what happens with other players, we’ll address other needs. We still have some cap space to get done what I think we need to get done this off-season.\"

Taking a positive spin on things, bringing McDonagh back could signal to Stamkos that Mr. BriseBois is serious about keeping this team in the top tier in the Eastern Conference. He also brought back a player that Stamkos knows and respects.

By now, the Lightning know what Stamkos is looking for in terms of a contract. So either this move was made with the knowledge that they won\'t be able to match it, or his ask is close enough that, with another move, they can meet it. The GM left himself an opening to future moves with his \"depending on what happens with other players\" remark, so there is a better than average chance that another move is in the works.

Mr. BriseBois also mentioned that there is a chance that they stack the top four by moving Mikhail Sergachev to the right side.

https://twitter.com/Chris_Krenn/status/1792991296274985168

That would indicate that Erik Cernak is still a part of their plan moving forward. It would also give them an extra right-handed defenseman in either Nick Perbix ($1.125 million) or Darren Raddysh ($975,000). Moving either of those players won\'t free up much cap space, but it could give them enough room to sign Stamkos to a fair salary.

Following the trade the defense could look like this next season:

Victor Hedman - Mikhail Sergachev

Ryan McDonagh - Erik Cernak

Emil Lilleberg - Darren Raddysh

With Lilleberg up in place of Nick Perbix and, for a ballpark look at an internal promotion, Niko Huuhtanen taking the open spot on the fourth line, the Lightning would have about $4,422,500 left in cap space to sign Steven Stamkos. That would also leave them with just 20 players on the roster.

So if Mr. BriseBois really believes that he can sign Stamkos and keep Cernak, then two players would have to come off of the current roster. Conor Sheary, Tanner Jeannot, and Nick Paul would be three of the most likely candidates to move in addition to Perbix. Then, the Bolts would still have to find some players at or near the league minimum to fill in the roster.

The Lightning\'s general manager might have solved one of his problems, but there is a chance he created a couple of more if he wants to keep Steven Stamkos in Tampa. Overall, bringing Ryan McDonagh back to the Big Guava is a solid move. It tackled the Lightning\'s biggest concern, but also still left a few questions that need to be answered before training camp opens in September.

Something else is likely to happen

Raw Charge

For Subscribers: A Deeper Look into the Ryan McDonagh Trade

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