Another day, and another potential unrestricted free agent is taken off of the board. In this case it’s Michael McCarron choosing Jucy Lucy burgers over free agency as he stays in Minnesota for six years at $3.33 million a year (the Yanni Gourde special!). With the big, bottom-six forward off of the market, things are getting bleak for anyone hoping to improve their offense on the free-agent market. One name is still out there, though, and unlike Dylan Larkin, could fill a need that the Tampa Bay Lightning have.
We talked about Alex Tuch as a potential trade deadline acquisition all the way back in 2025. The Lightning went in another direction, acquiring Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand from Seattle. Bjorkstrand had a similar profile as Tuch, a two-way player that could help the Lightning on the second-line. One of the drawbacks was that the 30-year-old Upstate New York native really enjoyed playing in Buffalo, and it seemed inevitable that he would re-sign with the Sabres.
Now, it appears that Tuch is heading to the open market, at least according to The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun. According to the long-time reporter it seems that Jarmo Kekalainen is hesitant to crack the $10 million AAV barrier for the 200-goal scorer. With an estimated $11,949,903 cap space available to him, and several roster spots to fill along with restricted free agents Micheal Kesselring, Peyton Krebs, and Zach Benson.
The Lightning have a little more space available, but chewing it all up with a six-year, $10 million AAV would make their lives a lot more difficult next season when Nikita Kucherov’s contract is at an end. Still, it’s not the worst possible way to spend their money.
Tuch hit the 30-goal mark for the third time in the last four seasons. Seven of those goals came on the power play and three were short-handed. He’s now up to 12 short-handed goals in his career (with 6 of them coming in 2024-25) and he spent a career-high 192 minutes on the penalty kill. Defensive responsibility plays well in Coach Jon Cooper’s system.
Offensively, many of the stats that we discussed back in 2025 have carried over (although it looked like he has drifted a little further from the net when shooting the puck at 5v5). He still generated plenty of shots (195 in 79 games last season) and gets them on net. His reliance on wrist shots helps his accuracy as last season over half of the attempts that he took made it on net 51.9%). If he’s not beating the goaltender, he’s generating rebounds and chaos in front of the net.
Tuch would add a little pace to the Lightning’s game as he enjoys shooting off the rush, averaging 14 shots off the rush per 60 minutes played last season. He can also get the puck into the zone and set up chances. On paper, he’d be an ideal fit with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli as the trio would definitely push defenders back as they attacked with speed.
Evolving Hockey has a projected contract of 7 years with an AAV of $9,980,000. Julien BriseBois would have to be pretty certain that Tuch is the missing piece to getting past the first round of the playoffs if he wants to get into the free agency ring with everyone else chasing offense. After Tuch, there is a bit of a drop-off, especially if a team is looking for a right-hand shot. Viktor Arvidsson? Claude Giroux? Jack Roslovic? They’d be cheaper options, but would they don’t bring a 30-goal pedigree with them.
After a solid first round where he put up 4 goals and 3 assists in 6 games against the Boston Bruins, Tuch struggled to make an impact against the Canadiens as he was held pointless in 7 games. It wasn’t from a lack of trying as he cranked out 26 shots while averaging 19:53 of ice time. His 3.31 xGF was the highest number on Buffalo in the second round, so credit is due to Philip Danault and his linemates for keeping him off of the board.
Signing Tuch to a deal around $10 million would probably mean the Lightning would have to unload a contract or two, but that could clear some playing time for a younger player? If Nick Paul can be dealt, Dominic James could slide right into his spot. Even moving out Pontus Holmberg’s $1.55 million could free up enough cash to make things work out next season.
The Lightning’s pedigree and system could appeal to Tuch [insert sarcastic comment about state tax]. If they can find a way to make it would money-wise, the signing would keep them atop the Eastern Conference power rankings.
