Home sweet home: Wild at Lightning preview

Game Seventy: Minnesota Wild (40-19-12) at Tampa Bay Lightning (43-21-5)

Time: 7:30 PM EST

Location: Benchmark International Arena, where we once saw Brian Johnson run around on stage with Klaus Meine on his shoulders

TV/Stream/Radio: TNT, truTV, HBO MAX, 102.5 FM, Lightning App (audio only)

Odds: Lightning -170

Know the Opponents: Hockey Wilderness

The Tampa Bay Lightning had the day off on Monday as they reacclimated to their usual time zone after a long trip out west. What is their reward for picking up seven out of eight points against Western Conference teams? A match-up against one of the best teams in the West, the Minnesota Wild. Yes, the same Wild team that thumped them 5-1 to start the month of March.

It’s been a bit of a rough road for the Wild since then as they’ve picked up just two wins in their last six games (with one shootout loss). The offense has dried up a bit, but that’s to be expected with Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek missing time over the past few weeks. The injuries have caused them to shuffle the lines a bit, but they still have plenty of talent on the roster.

As for the Lightning, they’re going to have to pick up their defensive play a little from their last game. A few too many blown assignments allowed Calgary some Grade-A chances in front of Jonas Johansson. Those types of mistakes will cost them goals tonight, even against a depleted Minnesota roster.

Maybe it was a bit of tired legs and foggy travel brains because overall, the Lightning have been doing a better job of limiting the high-danger chances as of late. Over their last four games they’ve allowed just 24 total HDCA at 5v5 play. That comes after a six-game stretch of allowing at least 11 per night. So, overall, the defensive process is getting better. They are still allowing scoring chances, but they’re starting to push them back out to the perimeter again and controlling the front of the net.

The penalty kill has also rebounded. In their last six games, the short-handed units have a clean sheet, going 11-for-11 and adding two short-handed goals (both against Edmonton). They’ll need to be solid again tonight as Minnesota comes into the game with the fifth-best road power play unit at 25.5%. The special teams unit is a little less venomous with Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek out of the line-up as the duo has combined for 12 of their power play goals on the road, but Quinn Hughes and Matt Boldy are still on the unit and are as dangerous as anyone in the league.

Instead of adding a high-profile player at the deadline, the Wild went with depth pick-ups in Michael McCarron, Marcus Foligno (currently injured), and Bobby Brink. Brink has posted 3 points (2 goals, 1 assist) in five games with the Wild while McCarron has a goal and two assists while winning 53.2% of his face-offs. Minnesota might not be as explosive offensively as they were the last time these two teams met, but they are a little tougher to play against.

[Update: Per John Hynes, Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek will be in the line-up tonight.]

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Coach Jon Cooper go for the best-on-best match-up as he rolls the Anthony Cirelli line out against Minnesota’s current top line that is centered by rookie Danila Yurov. Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Nikita Kucherov had an excellent road trip as the team posted a 6-1 edge in goals scored while they were on the ice and a whopping 14-4 edge in high-danger chances. The other top line of Gage Goncalves, Brayden Point, and Jake Guentzel also had a nice edge in high-danger chances as they posted an 11-5 advantage, but the finishing wasn’t quite there as they posted just two goals against an expected 2.62.

Generating those types of numbers among the top two lines is a good indication that the Lightning are getting back to their style of play (the entire team posted a 45-24 edge in HDCF on the road trip) just as an important stretch of play gets underway. Every team they face down the stretch (with the exception of the Rangers on the last day of the season) is in the playoff race right now. If they’re not currently sitting in a playoff spot, they are within a handful of points of a Wild Card spot. There are no days off so the Lightning will basically be in playoff mode the rest of the way.

Potential Lines

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Minnesota Wild

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