Well, it looks like we’re going to have to wait at least one more season until the Ice Man arrives in Tampa. According to Elliotte Friedman, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s top non-professional prospect is returning to Michigan State for one more season of collegiate hockey. There was some speculation that Howard would sign this spring, especially after the Spartans were bounced from the NCAA championships a little earlier than everyone expected.
What does it all mean? In the short term, nothing. The Lightning still hold his draft rights. He is still one of their top prospects, and Howard gets to go back to being one of the top players in the college system. It’s not the best-case scenario, as the Lightning would likely want one of their top prosects in their system and a little more directly under their control in terms of development. Howard would also like to sign a contract, get some sweet signing bonus money, and start his professional career.
The situation is a little different than the one they had with Boston College defenseman Eamon Powell last summer. The 2020 fourth-round pick was in his final season of draft exclusivity, so when he elected to return to college, he became an unrestricted free agent once he left school. Powell ended up signing a one-year, AHL deal with the Charolette Checkers that kicks in next season.
That seems like a win-win situation for both parties. So, why didn’t it happen? Now we get into the land of speculation. There is speculation that Howard wanted to sign his entry-level contract and burn his first year by joining the Lightning right away. That’s not how the Lightning normally go about their business with their college prospects. Usually, like Conor Kurth, they sign an entry-level deal, join the Syracuse Crunch on an ATO, and then have the contract kick in the following season. In fact, with rare exceptions, that’s how most teams handle their prospects, especially for teams in playoff contention.
If the Lightning were to do that, they would have to find a way to fit Howard’s new deal under the cap for this season, which, at this point, would require them sending someone down to Syracuse. They don’t seem to be willing to do that. Coach Cooper likes to rely on his veterans, and trading Howard for Cameron Atkinson (the most likely choice) isn’t in the game plans for now.
There is also a practical aspect to not having him on the Lightning right now. Tampa Bay isn’t in a position right now to be teaching on the fly. They’re gunning for the Stanley Cup. If they were out of a playoff spot it’s a different story. Sign him and throw him out there on the ice to get a taste of the NHL. They’re not in that spot, so signing him to play him sporadically on the fourth line or have him watch from a press box doesn’t seem to be the wisest use of a roster spot.
As for the 21-year-old forward. He is nothing if not confident in his own talent. It’s part of what makes him such a unique prospect in the Lightning system. He feels that he can contribute to the Lightning right now. If they’re not willing to give him that opportunity, he’s not going to sign with them right now. Cool. Keep that confidence. Go back to Lansing and put up another great season and get that national title. We’re never going to fault a player for betting on themselves.
The danger now for the Lightning is that they’re going to flirt with the chance that Howard can now outwait them. Their exclusive rights expire in August of 2026. In theory he could play college next season and then just wait till August and sign with any team he wants to as an unrestricted free agent. We don’t know how contentious the talks were this spring. They could still be on good terms or the relationship could be fractured beyond repair.
If things are at a contentious state, expect Julian BriseBois to try and move his rights prior to, or early in next season. We’ve seen other teams do this. When it became apparent that Cutter Gauthier didn’t want to sign with the Philadelphia Flyers they traded him to Anaheim for young defenseman Jamie Drysdale and a second-round pick. Just last offseason Winnipeg swapped prospects with Pittsburgh when Rutger McGroarty indicated he wasn’t going to sign with them.
Personally, we were excited with the possibility that Howard would join the organization this spring. He brings an aspect of potential offense that isn’t in a large supply in their prospect pool. Hopefully, the situation is resolved in a positive way, and next spring we can write about his entry-level contract.
