Keep getting better: Stars at Lightning preview

Game Eleven: Dallas Stars (6-3-1) at Tampa Bay Lightning (4-4-2)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: Amalie Arena, City of Lightning

TV/Stream/Radio: TNT, TruTV, HBO Max 102.5 FM, Lightning App (radio broadcast)

Odds: Lightning -145

Know the Opponents: Defending Big D

It seems like the Tampa Bay Lightning have shaken off some of their early-season struggles as they’ve pulled off wins in their last three games. Is it enough to say that they are definitively “back”? Well, let’s not put the trailer ahead of the camper van just yet. Yes, the wins were nice, and some aspects of Lightning hockey are back, there are still a few parts of their game that need to be ironed out.

One nice thing is that they’ve been spreading the scoring out during their little winning streak. The Yanni Gourde line has scored (Zemgus Girgensons – 2 goals), the Brayden Point line has scored (Jake Guentzel – 2 goals, Charle-Edouard D’Astous – 1), and the Anthony Cirelli line has scored (Cirelli -1, Brandon Hagel – 2). All of that is at 5v5 which is really nice. It was their even-strength offense that powered them through the regular season last year, so to see them score eight times in three games is a welcome development.

It is especially important because, well, the power play hasn’t been living up to its ability. Over the same stretch of games the Lightning have drawn 15 penalties (that’s good!), but they’ve only scored once (that Cirelli fellow again). It came in their sixth opportunity against Anaheim and they’ve gone 0-for-9 since then.

Following their 0-for-5 outing against the Golden Knights, head coach Jon Cooper didn’t seem too concerned, primarily because the Lightning were generating chances (they had 13 scoring chances and 5 high-danger chances while generating 17 shot attempts). They might have been going against a rookie netminder, but he was really good between the pipes.

Against Nashville, it was a different story. They mustered only one high-danger chance in four opportunities. The distressing part was their inability to get set up in the zone. They were a little too predictable with their entries and Nashville was able to break them up and fling the puck down the ice. The second unit, which featured Dominic James and D’Astous, had a little success and it led to Hagel’s goal just after the power play expired.

It’s unlikely they’ll do much to alter the personnel on the top unit, and they have a history of playing through these types of slumps in the past. Simply put, they have too much talent to not do so. For all of the whinging about Victor Hedman, he is fourth among NHL defensemen in power play points this season with 4, so he’s not likely getting replaced. Nikita Kucherov is Nikita Kucherov and his turnovers are offset by his ability to create offense.

One player that might be swapped out could be Oliver Bjorkstrand. In theory, he should be the threat from the left circle that the Lightning need to keep defenses honest, but he just hasn’t been shooting the puck enough to draw their attention. He has just two shots on goal six attempts on the power play this year. Bumping Hagel up to the first unit (or adding the high-effort play of Dom James) could shake things up a little even if an all-left shot line-up isn’t ideal.

As their schedule gets tougher over the next couple of weeks, the Lightning can’t afford to pass up the free gifts that other teams are giving them with power plays. Dallas will be a test. While they are 25th overall at 71.0%, on the road they are killing 84.6% of the penalties against them. They may get a break on their upcoming road trip as Utah is 26th at home at 66.7% and Vegas is 24th at 72.7%. Colorado is third with a fancy 92.9% success rate, so they are going to be tough.

If head coaches had their choice they will take a team succeeding at 5v5 over the power play every single time. But there is a limit to how successful a team can be if they can’t score with an advantage. Now that the Lightning have found their game a bit, it’s time for them to focus on their special teams.

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

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Dallas Stars

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