Keep Going: Lightning at Penguins preview

Game Forty-Five: Tampa Bay Lightning (28-13-3) at Pittsburgh Penguins (21-14-9)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: PPG Paints Arena, The Confluence of the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers

TV/Stream/Radio: The Spot, SN-PIT, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -135

Know the Opponents: Pensburgh

One of the biggest reasons the Tampa Bay Lightning have found recent success is that they’ve stumbled onto a consistent line-up that has been effective at just about every level. Now, there is a more than likely chance that the lines will be jumbled up in the wake of Brayden Point’s injury against the Philadelphia Flyers on Monday night.

After Point left the game, things got a little squirrely as a rash of injuries affected the 5v5 play in the second period. Factoring in the score, and Coach Jon Cooper wasn’t exactly rolling lines as he would in a normal game, but for the most part Nikita Kucherov joined Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli on a line while Dominic James centered Gage Goncalves and Jake Guentzel.

If that holds, Jack Finley probably comes into the line-up with Nick Paul and Oliver Bjorkstrand while the Yanni Gourde line (which played 12:42 of 5v5 time against the Flyers) stays together. That’s not bad.

It’s been a long-held Raw Charge tradition (at least for a season-and-a-half) that Kucherov-Cirelli-Hagel is the Lightning’s best line that Coach Cooper refuses to stick with. Like most beliefs, there is a bit of hyperbole involved as that line has spent 144:28 of ice time together, second only to the Yanni Gourde Trio (301:51). However, they have been just as good as usual as the Lightning have a 10-3 edge in goals scored and a 55.78% edge in expected goals when Kuch, Tony Two Goals, and Bagels are on the ice together.

So, in the short term, the Bolts could be okay. How they deal with it if Point is out long term is a story for a different post. One thing to look for tonight is how Gage Goncalves, who has found his game on a line with Kucherov and Point with seven points in eight games since joining them, can produce if he’s separated. The Lightning need that other line to generate some offense to keep opponents honest all night long. If he’s with Guentzel, it will help, as will the relentless energy that James brings to the game, but Gage is going to have to take charge a little bit more and not defer to his linemates.

As always, no matter the turmoil on the ice in front of him due to injuries, Andrei Vasilevskiy is there to give the Lightning a chance to win on a nightly basis. After missing a couple of games in early December, Vasilevskiy is 7-1 with his lone setback a 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Kings. Over that stretch he’s posted a .903 SV%, 2.38 GAA, and a 4.75 GSAx. Not too shabby.

Part of the reason his save percentage is a bit lower than one might expect is that the Bolts aren’t allowing a lot of shots overall. Over the 11 games since Vasilevskiy returned the Lightning have allowed 271 shots, the best mark in the league during that stretch.

It’ll be another tough game for the Bolts as the Penguins have figured out the defensive thing as well recently. They are 6-2-0 since the holiday break and are allowing just 1.99 goals-per-60 since then. Stuart Skinner has found his groove with a 3-1-0 record, .955 GAA, and 1.01 SV% post-holiday. Guess someone is happy to be out of Edmonton.

Can the Bolts grind out another win and match their franchise-best winning streak of 11 games? Stay tuned to find out.

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Pittsburgh Penguins

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