Well, at least we won’t have to write any more Alex Tuch profiles in the near future. After speculating that the big winger could be a trade deadline acquisition in 2025, and a possible free agent signing this summer, things went in a different direction as the Buffalo Sabres signed the 30-year-old to an 8-year, $84 million contract before trading him to the Washington Capitals for a third-round pick and David Kampf.
With that move, the top forward was erased from the top of free agent boards across the NHL. The Lightning, with $13 million in cap space, are in the market for a top-six winger, and Tuch’s ability to put the puck in the net and play physically along the boards would have been a nice fit. Also, time to move on and focus on the next best player.
If we assume their preference is a right-shot, then things get interesting. Alex Ovechkin might be listed as a top-five free agent, but there is a 99.99% chance that the Gr8 One plays in Washington, D.C. if he returns for another season. After that, the next best choice is probably Viktor Arvidsson. The 33-year-old had a 25-goal season for the Bruins last season and is delighted that Tuch went off the market prior to July 1. So is Jack Roslovic, who went most of last summer without a deal before signing for one year in Edmonton.
After that, it doesn’t take long until you’re talking yourself into players like Patrik Laine and Andrei Kuzmenko or saying things like “Oliver Bjorkstrand wasn’t that bad”. If you open it up to left-hand shots, things look a little rosier, but not by much.
As the sweltering days slide off the calendar and the dawn of free agency creeps closer, the chances of the Lightning addressing their scoring needs through a big signing dwindle like a shadow at noon in Florida. That leaves them with two choices – filling the spot from within or engineering a trade.
Trades have been all the rage this week as general managers, drunk on cap space and underwhelmed by the free agent market, are trading first-round picks like they’re hockey cards in order to shore up their rosters. Jordan Kyrou to Washington. Brady Tkachuk to Florida. William Eklund to Ottawa. Bo Byrum to Chicago. Makie Samoskovich to Seattle. All of these deals have involved first-round picks for this season.
Twelve of the thirty-two first-round picks have already been traded at least once, including the Lightning’s 25th pick which has now been held by three different teams, and there is a good chance a couple more will be moved prior to the festivities get under way tonight in Buffalo.
For the most part, the Lightning have been fairly quiet. Julien BriseBois set low expectations for roster churn in his post-postseason interview with the media. He anticipated that the roster that lost in seven games to the Montreal Canadiens would be pretty similar to the one that opens the 2026-27 season in September. Will the moves made by some of his division rivals open up opportunities that fit his vision for next year’s team? Possibly.
Darren Raddysh is gone. That was always going to be the most likely outcome. His departure has led to some speculation that the Bolts are in on John Carlson. Hey we talked about that a month ago! Big money on a short-term deal is one way to go, but Lightning management could also make the bet that Victor Hedman will have a bounceback season and they can still get similar production from the blueline with in-house options.
Is it a risk? Yes, but so is signing Darren Raddysh to an 8-year deal, Carlson to a $10 million AAV deal, or Rasmus Andersson to a long-term, big-money deal. Based on track records alone, Hedman putting up a 55-60 point season is a lot more likely than Raddysh going 60-70 in the Toronto pressure cooker, right?
Defense wasn’t an issue last season, even in the playoffs. Even with the loss of Raddysh and if Hedman only returns to 70% of his former self, the Lightning should be okay on the blueline. Finding that sixth forward would go a much longer way to securing a playoff spot for the tenth straight season. The in-house options aren’t spectacular. Gage Goncalves has shown promise in a top-six role, but lacked consistency. Nick Paul has played a winger role at times, but the Lightning like, and need, his ability in the face-off dot.
The majority of the forwards in the system that are knocking on the door don’t profile as top-six forwards. The Bolts love them some bottom-six, two-way forwards, and that’s what they are stocked with at the moment. If there is no in-house option, can they get in on all of the trade action?
A brief tangent. The desire to want the Lightning to make a trade because other teams, especially divisional teams, are making deals is strong. However, just making a trade because other teams are doing it is a great way to derail a successful operation. A lot of these moves being made are by organizations that are still trying to catch up to the Lightning.
Buffalo has made a lot of moves, but at this point, all they’ve added is the #4 pick and a new house for Zach Benson’s agent. Are they better without Tuch, Byram, Michael Kesselring, and Jordan Greenway? Not yet. We say that while fully acknowledging they aren’t done making moves yet, but they still have work to do fill out the roster and show everyone that last season wasn’t a fluke.
Florida added Brady Tkachuck and Garnett Hathaway. Solid moves that will make them an absolute pain to play against. It’s also a good thing that Aleksander Barkov is healthy, because they’re going to need him to kill a bunch of penalties that Tkachuk and Hathaway are going to commit. Oh, and they have $5.8 million in cap space and no goaltender. Any move to bring in a top-tier puckstopper is going to cost them a rostered player. Are they in that uneasy phase where they are trading younger assets to keep their window open? [Shameless Plug. Hey we briefly opined about that on the latest Backchecking the Bolts episode. Shameless plug over.]
The Lightning like their roster. It is a roster that picked up 106 points despite poor seasons from their number-one center and a top-four defenseman. Now is not the time to panic and get into a needless arms race that does more damage in the end.
With all of that being said, if the right deal presents itself, expect Mr. BriseBois to find a way to make it work. Despite the extra cap, there are going to be some teams that need to deal talent away to make other additions work. Florida is such a team, but Dallas and Minnesota could both use a little breathing room. Colorado has been steadily clearing space as they raid the Denver Mint in order to pay Cale Makar his next contract. For once, the Lightning are in a spot where they can absorb a cap hit and by okay.
The general manager has found ways to zag when everyone else expected a zig. There could be some deals he’s working up now that the Raddysh question has been answered. There is no sacred prospect in this system if it means the team gets better today. Sam O’Reilly is on the table. So are Connor Geekie, Benjamin Rautiainen, and Ethan Czata.
The options are narrowing and the prices are rising for the Lightning to address their offensive needs, but they still have time to find a solution.
