So. Dylan Larkin reportedly wants out of Detroit. Good to see the Yzerplan is going swimmingly in the Motor City so far. So, what does this have to do with the Tampa Bay Lightning? Well, probably not much to be honest. In fact, we wouldn’t be writing this except for a few things. One, there isn’t much happening at Channelside Drive these days. Two, the Lightning are a team in contention, and that seems to be what Larkin is looking for. Three, a couple of rather prominent journalists haven’t ruled the Lightning out of the process.
Whenever something like this happens, it’s bound to spark some speculation, but Julien BriseBois has been around long enough that we know there is a certain filter to view these situations through. Would the deal make the Tampa Bay Lightning a better team now, and in the near future? The short answer is yes. The bigger question is – is the juice worth the squeeze?
Tampa Bay is pretty set down the middle of the ice right now and in the future. It’s not on the top of their list of needs in the offseason, and there is the chance that adding Dylan Larkin opens up a host of other questions that aren’t even on the table right now.
In a vacuum (or a salary-cap free world) adding Dylan Larkin, a left-shot center with 643 points (276 goals, 367) assists in 808 career regular season games would be very enticing. Throw in his career 52.1% face-off percentage and his ability to play 5v5, on the power play, and short-handed and it’s a no-brainer. Despite playing for a rebuilding team Larkin has been able to keep the Red Wings close to, or above water when he’s in the ice in terms of possession.
Unfortunately, the Lightning don’t exist in a such a fairy tale. Not only is there a salary cap, there are a couple of really good pivot men on the roster already. As of right now, the roster includes Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli. One is an offensive-minded center that has multiple 90-point seasons under his belt, and the other is one of the top defensive middleman in the league. They also have Nick Paul and Yanni Gourde on the roster with Sam O’Reilly banging on the door within the next year or so.
So, do the Lightning jump through a bunch of hoops to acquire a third-line center that they’re going to pay $8.7 million for the next few years? Or do they move Brayden Point to a wing? That might not be the worst thing in the world. A Nikita Kucherov-Dylan Larkin-Brayden Point followed by a Jake Guentzel-Anthony Cirelli-Brandon Hagel line would be one of the best one-two punches not only in the Eastern Conference, but also the entire NHL.
Of course, that $8.7 million would be a bit of a sticky widget. At least in the sense that it would likely cost the Lightning any shot at re-signing Darren Raddysh. If that happens, and the cap goes up again next year like it’s expected to, the Lightning can absorb the money. It would also appeal to another tent pole of Mr. BriseBois’ team-building strategy -cost certainty. Yes, it’s a big blow to take, but at least it’s a blow that he’ll be able to plan around for the next five years.
Larkin would slide in nicely with the way the Lightning play hockey. He has the ability to generate shots off of the rush as well as through the forecheck. He isn’t one to lug the puck in a lot, but his ability to get the puck into the zone when he does is towards the top of the scales. Once Larkin gets the puck into the zone, his possession tends to lead to scoring chances and shot opportunities.
Is it a case of too many players and just one puck? Not really. Larkin has shown the ability to conform his game to a team’s needs. On Detroit he’s the top center, a true 1C. However, on Team USA at the Olympics or Four Nations, he was able to adapt to a third or fourth line role. With the Lightning, it would likely be a hybrid situation. There would be games where he is the top center, and times when he’s pushed off to a wing or down the line-up.
Adding Dylan Larkin would make this team better next season. The same goes for the immediate future. He is 29 (turns 30 in next month) and should be able to produce over the next couple of seasons as he has for the last few. As in five straight seasons of 30+ goals. Not a bad run of play and it would likely continue with the Bolts as he would stay around 20 minutes a night of ice time.
So, Larkin wants out of Detroit. The Lightning could use him. Why isn’t this a done deal? Well, there is the kind of big question about what Steve Yzerman and the Red Wings want in return for their native-born and bred number one center. The answer is – a lot.
Detroit is in a unique situation. They should be nearing the end of their long rebuild, but they’ve seen teams like Montreal leapfrog them while they can’t move past the old lions like the Lightning and Bruins. Does ownership have the stomach for another rebuild? It’s unlikely. Mr. Yzerman probably won’t be satiated with draft picks and young prospects lighting up the OHL.
That actually plays into the Lightning’s hands. San Jose or Chicago might be able to throw a top-five pick at the Red Wings in a Larkin deal. What the Lightning can offer is NHL talent, or players that are on the cusp of the NHL. Those young players might not develop into superstars, but they would be solid contributors that can provide value. Throw in a second-round pick or a first-round pick down the road that Detroit can use as trade bait in the future and there could be some common ground.
While neither Larkin (or his agent) or the Red Wings have officially commented on the trade request, a couple of established reporters have thrown out his preferred destinations. Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press lists Minnesota, Florida, and Vegas as teams Larkin is interested in joining, but concedes Tampa Bay could be on an expanded list. Elliotte Friedman has also speculated that Tampa Bay is a possible landing spot among Minnesota and Dallas.
Let’s take a look at two different scenarios that might work out.
It’s one-for-one!
Dylan Larkin heads to Tampa in exchange for Brayden Point. That’s it. That’s the deal.
Why does this work for Detroit?
Mr. Yzerman is able to deal Larkin to a team that is competitive and gives him a chance to make it to the playoffs (at least the first round). In return he gets someone that he can plug right into that top-line center role. There is no rebuild, Detroit can tell themselves they will remain competitive. Point brings experience and the ability to put the puck in the net to a rather young team. There is no real drop off in production. Here is a side-by-side comparison over the last five seasons:
They have the cap space to make it happen and the general manager is reunited with a player that he moved in a draft to acquire over a decade ago.
Why it works for the Lightning
They get a little better defensively, save a little cap space, and add a player that is chasing his first Stanley Cup. Larkin gives Coach Jon Cooper a little more flexibility in his line-up and another weapon to use on the penalty kill. They trade away a key piece of their Stanley Cup runs but don’t lose production on the ice.
Why it works for Larkin
He gets to go to a winner. Yes, the Lightning have collided with some large speed bumps in the first round over the last four seasons, but they are still one of the best teams in the league. Some of the pressure is off of Larkin. He won’t be the captain and has a pretty nice spread of players to help share the responsibility on the ice. Oh yeah, the tax thing too.
Why it works for Point
Honestly, it really doesn’t. Point holds the hammer with his full no-move clause. There are some philosophical reasons why he might be looking for a new home. While Lightning fans are well aware of what he brings to the ice, he is somewhat overshadowed by Kucherov, Victor Hedman, and (up until a few years ago) Steven Stamkos on the national stage.
Does he want to show he can do it with another team? What about the freedom of playing for a team that doesn’t have Stanley Cup demands hanging over its head? Or playing with young talent like Mo Seider and Lukas Raymond?
Four quarters still equal a dollar
The Lightning can’t offer a high-end prospect. If they decide to hold onto Point, they can’t really offer a top-six forward to slide into help the Red Wings out. What they can offer is a package that can help Detroit be a deeper team.
Would Mr. Yzerman be interested in a package that includes Nick Paul, Conor Geekie, Benjamin Rautiainen, Erik Cernak, and a first-round pick? Feel free to mix and match any non-Sam O’Reilly prospects into that package. Paul is an upgrade in their middle-six while Geekie would have a chance to earn a spot in the top-six. Cernak is an upgrade on their right side, while Rautiainen and the first-round pick are a couple of lottery tickets or pieces that can be used in another deal.
It would still leave a big hole in the middle of the ice at the top of the line-up, but Mr. Yzerman can shop for that in another deal or free agency. However, they immediately become a better defensive team in the meantime.
As for the Lightning, they add Larkin without giving up any of their top six players. Dominic James emergence as a player makes Paul a little redundant. With Geekie in a new organization, there is a path to the NHL for Sam O’Reilly and some of the other prospects in Syracuse.
Is it going to happen? Probably not. Minnesota seems to be the best fit on paper and is apparently one of Larkin’s preferred destinations. However, the deal would fit into Julien BriseBois’ modus operandi and keep the Lightning in their current competitive state.
