We made it through the draft with no trade. Now, free agency is a little less frenzied. As of the composition of this post, the draft rights to Isaac Howard still belong to the Tampa Bay Lightning. So, if nothing has changed, why are we both wasting our time with a post about it? Well, because it’s July, and the fun from free agency is going to wear off pretty quickly.
Oh, and Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois was recently asked about it. He provided a bit of an update after the draft:
So, there you go, “We don’t have anything right now.” Sums it up, lets move on, right? Not so fast. We have some thoughts, and since we haven’t chatted about it in awhile, we figure now is as good of a time as any. First a summary for all of those that have no idea what we’re talking about. And if you don’t, well welcome to Raw Charge.
Shortly after their third Stanley Cup appearance in a row, the Tampa Bay Lightning drafted a young kid in the United States National Development Program by the name of Isaac Howard with the 31st pick of the 2022 NHL Draft. Howard provided a little spark of joy as he strolled across the stage in an all white suit, hinting that he was just a tad bit different than the usual Lightning draft pick.
We quickly learned that Howard did not lack in confidence. After a somewhat disappointing freshman year at the University of Minnesota – Duluth, he transferred to Michigan State. Reunited with his USNTDP coach Adam Nightingale,the 5’11” forward found his scoring touch, putting up 36 points as a sophomore, and leading Team USA to an U20 World Juniors gold medal as he put up 9 points (7 goals, 2 assists) in 7 games. He followed that up with a Hobey Baker-winning season in 2024-25 as he led college hockey in scoring with 26 goals.
That prompted some folks to think he might be ready to turn pro after Michigan State was bounced from the Frozen Four. It seemed like Howard was on the same page and had discussions with the Lightning about joining the team. The conversations did not go well and Howard announced he’d be returning to Michigan State. With that move, everyone circled August 15, 2026 on their calendar. Why? Because that’s the date that the Lightning lose their draft rights to him and he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
All caught up? Good. That pretty much brings us to today. As we can see from Gabby Shirley’s Tweet above, Mr. BriseBois has talked to Howard’s camp, as well as other teams about the possibility of a trade with no progress.
There was another bit of news to this saga. During a radio hit, Frank Seravalli claimed that the Edmonton Oilers offered the Lightning a first-round pick for Howard’s right. The Lightning turned that offer down.
From here we leave the world of fact and enter the realm of speculation. We have no inside information on the negotiations. We have no sources. We are not, in the word’s of Lin-Manuel Miranda, “in the room where it happens.” What we do have is almost seven years of watching how Julien BriseBois operates. Based on his past actions, we can make some reasonable guesses about what might happen.
What do we know about the Lightning’s general manager?
- His goal is to make the Lightning better today, and then possibly tomorrow.
- He is extremely well prepared and researched.
- He has a very good grasp on the Lightning’s prospects.
- He is not afraid to gamble on a deal if he feels it will help the Lightning.
Now lets dive into those points a little more.
Making the Lightning better today
The moves he has made over the last few years have all been about the immediate benefits for the Tampa Bay Lightning. He has tossed draft picks around like Monopoly money in order to bring in players that can help the Lightning right away. They haven’t always worked, but they’ve had more impact than a kid drafted with a second-round pick.
Based on his history, he is likely holding out for a player who can jump into the Lightning’s line-up today, not a draft pick for a player that might turn out to be good somewhere down the line. If he is seeing nothing but draft picks in his negotiations, he’d probably like one that has a little more impact. Had Edmonton been able to offer a 2025, or even a 2026, first-round pick, that might have held a little more value for Mr. BriseBois. Not necessarily because he would use it draft someone, but because he could use it as an asset for this season. Edmonton’s next pick isn’t until 2027.
That asset will still be there at the trade deadline if the Lightning want to circle back around to it. Unless Edmonton was chomping at the bit to throw Howard into the line-up this season, which is highly unlikely, the chance to make the deal could still be there. Mr. BriseBois isn’t going to rush this deal if he doesn’t have to.
Well prepared and researched
JBB is nothing if not prepared. He knows the value of Howard, and isn’t going to sell short at this point. There is a train of thought that Howard was a late-first round pick, and Edmonton’s first-round pick will likely be a late first-round pick, so it’s an equal value. That isn’t quite the case. If you invested $100 in 2022, and it was still worth only $100 in 2027, that’s not a great investment.
Howard is going to play in the NHL. He’s shown that he can score against elite competition, and has a knack for performing in big moments. Can we say the same thing about a late-round pick two years from now? No. The Lightning would basically be starting all over, and would have wasted all the time and energy they’ve had in developing Howard as a prospect.
We know the bottom value of Howard at this point. If the Lightning do nothing and let him walk, they will receive a compensatory second round pick in the 2027 draft, that will probably be in the 60s. That’s the absolute bottom, Mr. BriseBois’ goal is to extract way more than that in any deal he makes. A deal with Edmonton, or any team for that matter, for a single draft pick isn’t the only plan he has. Chances are he has several scenario’s mapped out, up to, and including actually signing Howard.
Grasp on the value of Lightning prospects
He might trade draft picks as if they’re the paper stuck to the gum that is stuck to the bottom of your shoe, but he has been really good at knowing which prospects to include in trades. Let’s take a brief look at the history of the actual players he’s traded:
2025 – Lucas Edmonds – traded to the Rangers, they didn’t qualify him.
2024 – Bennett MacArthur – traded to the Penguins, since traded to Buffalo
2024 – Jack Thompson – traded to San Jose, still has a chance to be an every day player
2023- Max Cajkovic – traded to Minnesota, currently playing in Europe
2023- Cal Foote – traded to Nashville, waived by the Predators, currently involved in a legal matter
2022 – Boris Katchouk – traded to Chicago, waived by Blackhawks and Ottawa, currently back with the Lightning
2022 – Taylor Raddysh – traded to Chicago, is now on his second team since then.
We can keep going, but the pattern remains the same. The players he trades rarely end up being difference makers for the team that acquires them. The fact that he hasn’t dealt Howard yet indicates that believes the young forward is worth more than what has been offered.
He is not afraid to gamble
Some gambles (Brandon Hagel) have paid off. Some (Tanner Jeannot) have not. Still, he’s shown that he’s not afraid to pull the trigger on a deal if he thinks it will work out. He’s also not afraid to take it down to the wire if he needs to. The chances of him caving in are pretty slim. He knows what cards he holds, and is willing to bet he can out play whoever is sitting at the table with him.
The Other Side of the Argument
So, that’s where Julien BriseBois is coming from. What about Isaac Howard? Let us be clear, we don’t think this is a good guy/bad guy situation. This is purely business. Howard is doing everything he can to play where he wants to play. Good on him for that. In a league where young players usually don’t have much say in what their future is, Howard is stacking the deck the best he can.
We can’t fault his confidence, he is definitely betting on himself. Not many players are willing to turn aside a chance to turn pro and start cashing paychecks. Now, with NIL rights things are a little different. It’s not the old days where the college players didn’t (cough, couch) get paid. If he’s making even close to the $80,000 an entry-level contract would make in the minors, then good on him. Use that to get the best deal you can.
The problem with betting on yourself, is that you can lose. There are two risks that Howard is facing right now. The biggest one is injury. That hurts both sides of this negotiation as it tanks his value. The second one is performance. His highest value came right at the end of college season. Now, he has to go out and do it again this year if he wants to cash in as an unrestricted free agent next summer.
It’s in his best interest to get this deal done before the season begins. Not only does he remove the risk of devaluing himself, but it also allows him to get to the pros a little quicker, which is his ultimate goal. Honestly, we kind of hope he pulls this off. Even with all of this drama, We Still Like Ike. There aren’t enough players in the league with personality, and he has more than his fair share of it. Also, we’re never going to criticize a player trying what he can do to secure the bag.
At the same time, we also recognize that the dark side of hubris has been evident ever since Icarus fell into the ocean. If this doesn’t work out, Howard is going to face a ton of criticism and tsk-tsking by the “name on the front is more important than the name on the back” crowd.
How does it end?
Howard is talented enough to play in the NHL. Maybe not as soon as he thinks, but at some point he’ll be there. Teams need NHL talent, so why hasn’t a deal been worked out? JBB alluded to it a little in the above Tweet. It’s not as simple as one negotiation. In order for the Lightning general manager to get what he feels is true value for Howard’s right, the precocious forward pretty much has to agree to sign with that team. There are teams Howard wants to play for, and out of that pool, JBB has to be able to strike a deal.
So, for the sake of the rumor, say that Edmonton is one of the teams Howard wants to play for. Other than them agreeing to giving him a shot at the NHL level there isn’t much to negotiate due to the nature of entry-level deals. If that’s all agreed to, Mr. BriseBois has to extract an appropriate value to make the trade. The problem arises is that a team like Edmonton knows that his hands are slightly tied because of the small pool of teams where Howard wants to go, so they can lowball the offers.
Can that change as time goes on? Possibly. More teams might be entering the fray now that budgets and rosters have pretty much taken shape. If we head into the season and Howard keeps performing at an elite level, that might also perk up interest. Come the trade deadline, the value might emerge to the Lightning’s satisfaction and a deal gets done.
These situations find a way to work out in the end. Cutter Gauthier got out of the Flyers organization and Rutger McGroarty never had to suit up for the Jets in Winnipeg. The chances of Isaac Howard ever putting on a Lightning jersey are pretty slim, we just have to wait and see who can pull off the feat of negotiating with both camps.
For a club that rarely has any sort of player drama, it is fun to see how this all plays out. As far as declaring who is winning/losing this battle of wills, well that’ll have to wait until a deal is done. Personally, it would be nice if it’s done fairly soon, we have a Top 25 Under 25 ranking to start thinking about.
