Lightning at Predators: Beware the trap game

Game Twenty-One: Tampa Bay Lightning (11-8-2) at Nashville Predators (7-12-4)

Time: 3:00 PM EST

Location: Bridgestone Arena

TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, FDSNSO, ESPN+, 102.5 FM

Odds: Lightning -108

On paper, this should be a good game for the Tampa Bay Lightning to rediscover their identity after a couple of sub-optimal outings. They hit the road for the briefest of road trips as they take on Nashville, still mired several steps below mediocrity, for a Black Friday special matinee game. After a disappointing loss to the Washington Capitals in which they spoiled a perfectly fine first ten minutes of the game, the Lightning need to put together a full 60-minute effort to get back into the win column.

Going against a team that is struggling to put the puck in the net (Nashville is dead last in 5v5 goals) should be the tonic the Lightning needs to cure all of their ails, but, for the first time this season, they’re staring a trap game dead in the face. Nashville is a non-conference opponent. The game has an odd start time of 3:00 PM on a Friday. It’s a quick road trip. The Predators haven’t had the greatest season. The biggest factor contributing to the trappiness of this game would be that the Lightning head home right away to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs tomorrow night. It’s going to be way too easy to look past the Predators and focus on the showdown with their divisional rivals.

Oh, and one more thing. Jonas Johansson is probably going to be in net today. It’s been a struggle this season for the Lightning’s back-up goaltender. The one silver lining to his year so far is that the Bolts have picked up points in two of his three starts, which, for a back-up, is a pretty good percentage. He’s sporting a 1-1-1 record in his three starts (and four appearances).

From there, the numbers fall off of a cliff, hit the water, roll along the sea floor until they hit the Mariana Trench and keep falling. On the season he is sporting a 5.22 Goals Against Average, .856 Save Percentage, and has allowed 5 or more goals in each of his 3 starts. Evolving Hockey has him with a -6.49 Goals Saved Above Expected and a .890 first save percentage against a .930 expected first save percentage.

While he hasn’t been great, the team in front of him hasn’t exactly been helping out. Let’s go to Natural Stat Trick and compare the workload he faces against the workload Andrei Vasilevskiy faces:

The high-danger shots against are most troubling as he’s facing almost five more quality shots per 60 minutes than Vasy is. Some of that can be attributed to the number of rebound attempts he’s allowing, but as we’ve mentioned in the past, the Lightning’s defense is centered around the goaltender making the first step, and the skaters in front of him clearing out any second-chance opportunities.

So, the Bolts will need to make sure that they’re not allowing the chances in front of the net, and Johansson has to make sure he’s making the initial stop. He has been noticeably busier in his crease this year, especially compared to the efficient movements of Vasilevskiy. JoJo needs to make sure he’s square to the shooters and balanced after the shots come in, so that he is in position to make any follow-stops if necessary.

Is it time to fire him into the sun and trade for a more reliable back-up? No. On the list of concerns for the Lightning, back-up netminder is pretty far down on the list for a team that is going to roll Vasilevskiy out 65 times a season. That being said, if Johansson can just get to league-average goaltending, it’ll help the Lightning continue to munch points and could be the difference in making the playoffs and watching the postseason from the clubhouse.

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov

Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli –

Gage Goncalves – Conor Geekie – Cameron Atkinson

Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mikey Eyssimont

Victor Hedman – J.J. Moser

Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak

Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix/Darren Raddysh

Jonas Johansson

Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg – Ryan O’Reilly – Gustav Nyquist

Steven Stamkos – Tommy Novak – Jonathan Marchessault

Mark Jankowski – Fedor Svechkov – Luke Evangelista

Zachary L’Heureaux – Colton Sissons – Cole Smith

Roman Josi – Alexandre Carrier

Brady Skjei – Nick Blankenburg

Adam Wilsby – Luke Schenn

Juuse Saros/Scott Wedgewood