With its staggered schedule and constant multi-day breaks, December was always going to be a weird month for the Tampa Bay Lightning. To their credit, they made the most of it by posting an 8-3 record and keeping their spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. It was one of those months where they couldn’t secure their spot in the Atlantic Division due to their lack of games, but they could have really screwed things up if they had struggled.
Their 11 games played tied the Los Angeles Kings for the fewest played, yet they still managed to pick up 16 points, which was tied for the 13th most in the month of December. Their .727 points percentage was tied for 5th in the league, but despite the success, they weren’t able to gain any ground in the standings due to their inactivity. Entering January, they hold at least four games in hand on the three teams they’re chasing in the division. Hopefully, they can carry over the way they played for most of the month into January, a month where they have more than enough games on the schedule.
So, how did they knock out their wins in December? Mainly by doing a lot of things that they did in October – score a lot of goals. Not only did they have the highest goals-per-60 at 5v5 with 3.41, they also led the NHL in power play percentage at 33%. Remember those halcyon days of October when we were worried about the power play? It seems so very long ago.
| 5v5 Stats and league-wide rankings | October (7-3-0) | November (5-6-2) | December (8-3-0) |
| GF/60 | 3.93 (2nd) | 2.60 (8th) | 3.41 (1st) |
| xGF/60 | 2.49 (16th) | 2.37 (17th) | 2.47 (17th) |
| GA/60 | 2.16 (8th) | 2.79 (29th) | 1.82 (6th) |
| XGA/60 | 2.43 (12th) | 2.35 (14th) | 2.46 (17th) |
| SCF/60 | 29.04 (7th) | 25.95 (19th) | 26.49 (15th) |
| SCA/60 | 27.78 (20th) | 23.72 (8th) | 27.51 (23rd) |
| HDCF/60 | 12.43 (9th) | 11.16 (6th) | 11.94 (5th) |
| HDCA/60 | 12.43 (27th) | 9.21 (9th) | 10.00 (11th) |
| Save Percentage | .932 (6th) | .902 (22nd) | .937 (2nd) |
| Shooting Percentage | 13.7% (3rd) | 9.66% (9th) | 12.66 (1st) |
The offense returned with a vengeance in December, and it helped that they had some games against teams that struggled to keep the puck out of the net last month. The Sharks, Rangers, Kraken, and Blue Jackets all ranked among the top ten teams in terms of 5v5 goals allowed in the previous 31 days, but kudos to the Bolts for making sure to take advantage of their deficiencies.
In terms of scoring chances and high-danger chances, the Lightning’s underlying numbers remain okay. The fact that they can continue to generate top-of-the-league high-danger chances despite rather middling scoring chance opportunities is a testament to the players executing the offensive game plan.
Defensively, it would be nice to see them cut down on the chances against, which was something they actually did pretty well in November. To be fair, if you factor in score effects, their numbers improve. That makes sense, considering they were leading after two periods in eight of their eleven games last month. They would go on to win all eight of those contests. It was a good month for second periods as they outscored their opponents 18-8 in the middle frame of games, something that has plagued them over the last few seasons.
It also helps when they get top-tier goaltending from both netminders. Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jonas Johansson had strong months as they combined for a .926 Save Percentage. They were able to keep their opponents close to that magic number of two goals scored (2.18 per game) that is a strong component for success.
Johansson was nothing short of spectacular in his three starts, posting a .947 Save Percentage and a 1.68 Goals Against Average while stopping 5.23 goals above expected. He picked up wins in two of his three starts (while playing decently in his lone loss) to give the Lightning a boost while Vasilevskiy got a day off. Vasy wasn’t a slouch either as he posted a 4.78 GSAx, .929 SV%, and 2.14 GAA in his 8 appearances.
One of the things we mentioned in last month’s breakdown was their vulnerability on medium-danger shots. They were much in December in that regard, allowing just 8 goals on 74 shots (at 5v5) compared to the 14 goals on 79 shots in November. The tandem was perfect on low-danger shots, stopping all 105 pucks that made it on net from the perimeters of the ice. If they can keep that type of play up, it should bode well moving forward. Limiting high-danger goals allowed is more on the defense in front of the goaltenders. Successful teams cut down on the opportunities in front of the net instead of relying on their goalies to make tough stops night in and night out.
Offensively, it was the top two lines bringing it on a night-in and night-out basis. Nikita Kucherov put up 20 points (5 goals, 15 assists) in 10 games while Brayden Point had 22 in 11 games (7 goals, 15 assists). Despite missing the final game of the month with an upper-body injury, Jake Guentzel paced the team with 10 goals, five at even strength and five on the power play. It was another month where just about everyone chipped in as Zemgus Girgensons and Steve Santini were the only players not to record a point.
While the lines were shuffled throughout the month due to minor injuries, the basic four lines were along the lines of what is posted below.
| Lines | TOI (approx.) | GF% | Goals | SCF% | HDCF% |
| Guentzel – Point – Kucherov | 91 | 70.00% | 7 | 49.07% | 59.09% |
| Hagel – Cirelli – Geekie | 62 | 50.00% | 3 | 58.93% | 66.67% |
| Goncalves – Paul – Chaffee | 60 | 66.67% | 2 | 42.86% | 52.38% |
| Girgensons – Glendening – Eyssimont | 76 | 50.00% | 2 | 60.34% | 55.00% |
As you can see, all four lines contributed goals and produced positive numbers in regards to high-danger chances. We harp on high-danger chances throughout the year because they are one of the best indicators of sustained success over an entire season, and to see all four lines above water is a good sign for a team.
The Glendening line isn’t out there to score every night, but they’re doing their job of keeping the puck out of the net and setting the other lines up for success. As for the Geekie/Hagel/Cirelli trio, they only account for three total goals; part of that is the fact that the second line had the most turnover throughout the month. Take it down to just Cirelli and Hagel, and the total goals scored while they were on the ice at 5v5 is eight.
We saw glimpses of what this team can be when they’re firing on all cylinders. They are a playoff caliber team. Are they a Stanley Cup contending team? That question hasn’t really been answered yet. They are finding ways to win each night, which is a good sign, but there are still a few too many points where they seem to lose focus and allow the other team to take control of the game. It’s nowhere near as frequent as it was last season, or even last month, but the Lightning are a team that has to keep going forward at all times. They aren’t quite good enough to win when they take nights off, so expect it to be a long slog to the finish line this season.
In our opinion, January was always going to be the month that decided just how good this team is will be. So, it is good that they head into this upcoming month with momentum (despite the loss to Montreal). Hopefully, they can keep it going.
Some quick thoughts about December:
- Best Win – 8-3 over Calgary
- Worst Loss – 4-2 to Florida
- MVP – Jake Guentzel – 10 goals, 5 assists, 15 individual high-danger chances, 2.6 iXG, points in 9 out of 10 games
- Best individual night – Nikita Kucherov 6-point effort against Calgary.
- Best individual night (goaltender edition) – Jonas Johansson, 4-0 win over Florida, 36 saves, 4.07 GSAx
