One advantage to having a prospect tier ranked in the lower-third of the league is that your players rarely attract offer sheet attention. It also helped that the Tampa Bay Lightning didn’t have any restricted free agents on their depth chart after they opted to not tender a contract to Ethan Samson (who signed with Montreal), so they can sit back and watch the Leo Carlsson drama from a comfortable distance.
At some point this week, Pat Verbeek will make his decision about Carlsson, a budding franchise center, who accepted the five-year, $18 million AAV contract offer from the Philadelphia Flyers. Verbeek, Anaheim’s general manager, will need approval from the owners, because Henry and Susan Samueli are going to have to cut a big, fat check to Carlsson if they match the offer because there is a $19,950,000 signing bonus in year one.
The conversation the Anaheim brain trust is having right now not only revolves around what their future roster looks like with and without Carlsson, but also what could they do with four additional first-round picks. That gives them eight over the next four years along with six second-round picks. Could they pry some scoring talent away from a team that might be in a little trouble? Jason Robertson has filed for arbitration, so, while he might be off the offer sheet table, there is nothing stopping the Stars working out a deal with Anaheim and seeing if their talented winger would be willing to accept a sign-and-trade to the Ducks. There is a belief that California-native might have some interest playing in home state.
No matter what is decided, one thing is certain, Leo Carlsson is going to be the highest paid player in the NHL next season. Kirill Kaprizov didn’t even get to enjoy one day at the top of the list with the $17 million AAV extension that he agreed to last year, but doesn’t go into effect until the 2026-27 season. See, Wild fans, it’s already a bargain!
Either Anaheim or Philadelphia, both teams with youngish rosters and cap space, will have to absorb the contract and figure out how to build around it. Carlsson will have to live up to the deal he signed, which will probably be impossible, but the kid is getting better every season. He went from 29 points (12 goals, 17 assists) in his rookie year to 45 points (20 goals, 25 assists) his second year, and then 67 points (29 goals, 38 assists) last season. He’s improved his face-off percentages (still under 50%) every year and his possession metrics have always been fairly strong given his youth.
What is his potential, though? Is he a 100-point guy? Is he an 80-point guy that also gets some Selke votes? If he can be either one, then the deal will age as best as possible. If he struggles, things could get ugly in a hurry, especially if it happens in Philadelphia where the fans can be…how shall we say…less than compassionate to players that are struggling on the ice.
Now that the Pandora’s Box of offer sheets has been opened? Will it lead to it being a more common means of acquiring players. After what seemed to be a mutual understanding between general managers not to use the tool to improve their teams (or potentially handcuffing their rivals) things have opened up over the last few seasons.
There was the Sebastian Aho/Jesperi Kotkaniemi back-and-forth between Montreal and Carolina in 2019 and 2021. Then St. Louis signed dual offer sheets with Edmonton’s Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. This summer has already seen two offer sheets signed, first Barrett Hayton and now Carlsson. While there are a few RFAs still out there for this summer (hi there, Connor Bedard), next summer could get really interesting with some talented young players coming off of their entry-level deals. Macklin Celebrini, Kirill Marchenko, Matvei Michkov, and Ryan Leonard are some of the players that could garner some offer sheet action.
If Carlsson is getting $18 million, what should Bedard or Celebrini sign for at this point? Has Philly’s offer sheet raised the cost for signing young, productive players? Can they successfully convince a team that they have a higher ceiling than Carlsson, and are worth $18.5 or $19 million a season (the ceiling for a contract right now is $20.8 million AAV, so at least we know no one is throwing that out there just yet).
Contracts continually going up is part of the sports landscape. However, such a jump in salary is way out of the ordinary. In the past, top-tier players such as Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin signed second contracts that ranged between 14 and 15% of the salary cap. Carlsson’s $18 million contract is roughly 17% of the current salary cap. Does Celebrini’s agent completely re-set any negotiations with San Jose based off of this offer sheet?
Now, more than ever is it imperative for teams to lock up their young talent early. If there is anyone sighing a breath of relief, it’s Montreal, who locked in Ivan Demidov to his long-term deal prior to all of this nonsense.
The veterans may respect the young players ability to get paid, but they aren’t going to go quietly into the night. Cale Makar, Nikita Kucherov, Quinn Hughes, and Pavel Zacha are going to want to make sure they get theirs as well.
The big jump in the salary cap was always going to shake up the financial situation in the NHL. Unrestricted Free Agents were set to cash in. The same goes for young players like Demidov that want to stick with their own team. The extra money also facilitated some trades to clear out some contracts. It’s interesting that at least two teams felt that it also opened up the offer sheet option. Will this escalate, i.e., will anyone go after the Flyers RFAs next season? Will more GMs go for broke? How will teams handle the threat of possible offer sheets? Time will tell.
Hockey News
Fifteen players file for arbitration [Daily FaceOff]
A couple of big names like Jason Robertson and Trevor Zegras took themselves out of the offer sheet conversation as they filed for arbitration. The players can still negotiate up until they walk into the meeting with their own team, but cannot talk to other teams without permission from their current ones.
Pavel Mintyukov reportedly signs extension with Anaheim [Elliotte Friedman Twitter]
There were reports that Anaheim was going to have to deal with another offer sheet situation, this one for their young defenseman, but it looks like they have agreed to a contract similar to Brandt Clarke’s five-year, $37 million contact.
Lightning sign Tomas Kralovic to entry-level contract [Tampa Bay Lightning]
The Bolts inked one of their recent draft picks to an entry-level contract. It’s likely he’ll start his professional career in Syracuse this fall.
Lightning sign Jansen Harkins to one-year, two-way contract [Tampa Bay Lightning]
The veteran pivotman will be given a shot at a spot in training camp, but will likely provide some organizational depth throughout the season. If he does have a strong pre-season, he would give the Bolts a player that wins more than half of his face-offs (career 52.9%).
Team Gaspar wins 3-on-3 tournament [Tampa Bay Lightning]
Jayson Shaugabay, Connor Kurth, Kralovic, Aiden Foster, Jan Golicic, and Danick Leroux (in camp as an invitee) took home the title at the rookie development camp.
