Following my LR from yesterday, I have some names of bottom six free agents that might be able to give the Lightning that extra boost they need in a cost effective way.
Danton Heinen
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been paying Danton Heinen far too little money for the impacts he brings to their lineup. Last season playing in a bottom six role he was part of the Jeff Carter line that took negative zone minutes and turned them into positive differentials. Heinen also has shown some ability to finish in front of the net despite an unlucky year on the scoreboard. His low scoring totals mean he can probably be hired for around a million.
Joel Kiviranta
A fan favorite in Dallas after his hattrick against the Avalanche in the 2020 playoffs, Joel Kiviranta is a UFA this summer. He’s known as a rush forward who never lived up to expectations set from that one game three years ago. I think there’s a good role player here, and one that can be aggressive in the defensive zone against opposing defensemen and get some breakaways every once in a while on the PK.
Kiviranta has been saddled with Luke Glendening most of his career, who is one of the worst regular centers in the league. At a league minimum deal (he won’t command a dollar more), he’s worth giving a fresh start to. And if it doesn’t work out, there’s no downside to putting him on waivers.
Brett Ritchie
The Lightning can probably get what they got out of Tanner Jeannot last season from Brett Ritchie and he was only traded for his brother, Nick. Brett Ritchie is a big, heavy, physical winger who teams love to have. He had a lot of fun with Lucic on his other wing last season and doesn’t have bad on-ice impacts. He’s very low-event when it comes to shots.
Garnet Hathaway
Similar to Ritchie and Jeannot, but I think more highly regarded than the former. Hathaway is among the league leaders in defensive zone starts and he does extraordinarily well with them. He and Nic Down on Washington turned the worst deployment you could get in the league into even shot differential, positive expected goals, and positive real goals. I think he’ll be coveted if teams notice that in their scouting.
Tomas Nosek
A good in front of the net center who won 60% of his faceoffs last year. It says a lot when he’s a guy the Bruins trusted. I’m curious what he’ll get on the open market, but his seven goals, 18 points might not lead to that much. He would be an excellent replacement for Bellemare should he choose to retire.
Derek Stepan
I’m not sure how much of this was the Hurricanes or Stepan, but he had a great year on an offensive fourth line in Carolina. He’s 33, but faceoffs are a plus for a center. He doesn’t play on the PK, but his shot rates (60% this year) are undeniable.
Lightning Links
The AHL Calder Cup Finals are going to an always-exciting Game 7 in Coachella Valley on Wednesday night! The home team has won every game so far in this 2-3-2 series format. Coachella gets home ice in the last game.
Micah has a new xG model where, as he says, “the range of goaltending talent is much smaller (per-shot) than the range of shooting talent and setting talent, around six times smaller.”
⬢⬡⬢ New xG Model ⬡⬢⬡
Version 7 of my xG model is here:https://t.co/4xt72adC1h
New this year: a layered approach, to measure the chance of a shot being blocked, or missed, or saved, or scored. pic.twitter.com/WmBGu9mCSH
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) June 19, 2023