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Kings at Lightning Game Preview: The skate is on the other foot tonight

Jan 9, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Michael Eyssimont (23) shoots as Los Angeles Kings goaltender Cam Talbot (39) makes a save during the third period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Game Fifty: Los Angeles Kings (26-16-6) at Tampa Bay Lightning (26-20-3)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa

TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, FDSNW, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -155

Know the Opponents: Rink Royalty

All month long we’ve talked, heard, written, and read about how difficult the Lightning’s January was going to be with the travel and amount of game played. Part of the grind involved four sets of back-to-back games. In three of those, the Lightning faced rested teams on the back-half of their set of games (Pittsburgh was the lone exception). Now, the Lightning get to extract a little revenge as they take on a Kings’ team that was shutout last night in Sunrise.

Adding to the fun is the fact that Los Angeles fans are kind of going through the same pains that Tampa Bay fans are. In the month of January, the Kings are now 5-6-1, and like the Bolts, their offense has abandoned them. Let’s take a look at some January numbers (these are prior to their game against the Panthers):

StatsLightningKings
Goals per game2.472.00
Power Play28.2%13%
5v5 Stats
Goals per 601.601.76
Expected Goals per 602.592.65
Scoring Chances per 6028.6925.76
High-Danger Chances per 6012.2312.11
Shooting Percentage5.35%6.50%
Stats via NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick

Do with that what you will, by now you’re familiar with the reliability of our gambling advice.

Tonight’s clash features two teams struggling to convert on the chances they’re generating. As the charts show, both teams are getting quality looks (Tampa Bay is ranked 7th and L.A. is 8th in high-danger chances this month) but not finishing them off (the Lightning are 32nd in shooting percentage while the Kings are 30th).

We’ve watched the Lightning’s struggles first-hand, and their last game was a perfect example. Brandon Hagel and Mitchell Chaffee found the iron. Nick Paul and Chaffee were turned aside by Arvid Soderblom from in-close. Anthony Cirelli yanked a shot wide of the net with Soderblom overcommitted on one side. Look at this chart (which doesn’t include their chances on the power play) and ponder how the Lightning only scored once:

Considering they generated those shots on a night where, by their own admittance, they struggled with puck possession, it shows that the Bolts are doing the right things to generate the offense. They just aren’t finishing things off.

That has to change, and soon. Yes, there is runway left in the season, but what they can’t keep offering the same platitudes after a loss (“we played hard”, “we should have walked away with a point”, etc.) and start saying the same thing after a win. History tells us that they have the shooting talent to turn this around, and getting a couple of goals that pinball off of sticks and ankles might be the thing that turns it all around. The best thing they can do at this point is keep generating the scoring chances, as history tells us that lucky bounces are bestowed on those that earn them. That means getting to the front of the net, winning the battles in front, and putting their second chances on net, not wide or over it.

Los Angeles isn’t going to give them as many chances as Chicago did, but that might be a good thing. Playing against a defensively structured team like the Kings will force the Lightning to be responsible with the puck, especially in their own zone. If they can build from the back and move through the neutral zone with speed, that will help their offense. They are at their best when they’re attacking off the rush (as much as they want to be more of a high-low, puck-possessing team), and that starts with solid play in their own zone.

They have to figure this out on their own. Julien BriseBois is probably working on some deals, but for right now, the offense has to come from the players on the roster.

Notes from practice:

Andre Vasilevskiy wasn’t on the ice for practice, so we can assume he’s still dealing with an illness. No recalls as of this morning, so we’ll see if he’s good to go following the morning skate.

Nikita Kucherov and Zemgus Girgensons were also out. Would have to assume they could be veteran maintenance days, especially with the minutes Kucherov has been putting up of late.

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forwards:

Jake GuentzelBrayden PointNikita Kucherov
Brandon HagelAnthony CirelliConor Geekie
Zemgus GirgensonsNick PaulGage Goncalves
Mitchell ChaffeeLuke GlendeningMikey Eyssimont

Defense:

Victor HedmanDarren Raddysh
Ryan McDonaghErik Cernak
Declan CarlileNick Perbix

Goaltenders:

Andrei Vasilevskiy
Jonas Johansson

Los Angeles Kings

Forwards:

Alex TurcotteAnze KopitarAdrian Kempe
Warren FoegeleQuinton ByfieldTrevor Moore
Kevin FialaPhillip DanaultAlex Laferriere
Tanner JeannotSamuel HeleniusTrevor Lewis

Defense:

Mikey AndersonVladislav Gavrikov
Joel EdmundsenJordan Spence
Jacob MoverareDrew Doughty

Goaltenders:

Dave Rittich
Darcy Kuemper
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