Game Seventy-eight: Toronto Maple Leafs (47-25-4) at Tampa Bay Lightning (45-26-6)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, SN, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning
Know the Opponents: Pension Plan Puppets
Story Lines and Notes
While the Atlantic Division is still yet to be decided (welcome to the playoffs Ottawa) the logistics required to facilitate a first-round meeting between the Lightning and the Maple Leafs is a bit convoluted. It could happen, but it’s more likely not to. So, why did we call this a potential postseason preview? Because, for the first time in a few nights, the Lightning have something to play for.
Yes, stacking up wins was important prior to tonight, but win or lose (and they did both) it wasn’t really going to change their spot in the standings. Tonight is a bit different. There is a brass ring to grab, and it’s not just two points in the standings. A regulation win tonight propels the Lightning into a tie at the top (with, if we’re doing the math correctly, the tiebreaker in hand).
The players and the coaches will tell us that just making the playoffs is the important part, and that they don’t really care where they finish in the standings, but this year, home ice could be of paramount importance, especially for the Bolts, who come back from their road trip with an overall road record of 18-18-4. Plus, there is a little thing called pride and the Bolts don’t want to see a goose egg in the win column against the Maple Leafs for 2024-25 (Toronto is currently 3-0 against the Bolts this season).
So, there should be some fire in the Lightning’s start tonight. Toronto played, and lost, to the Florida Panthers last night (welcome back to the race for the top, Florida). The Bolts were off and should, theoretically, be the better rested team. They need to parlay that into a fast start.
That being said they have to be wary of team that is firing on all cylinders of late. The offense is there, the special teams is there, and the Leafs are playing defensive hockey. Ottawa and Buffalo may have been riding heaters when the Lightning faced them recently, but the Leafs are the best team the Bolts have faced in quite awhile. There is no facet of the game right now where the Bolts can relax. So that should ramp up the playoff-esque atmosphere as well.
Buckle in. We’re in the end game now, and the Lightning need to find that next gear.
Stats
| Toronto | 5v5 Stats over Last 10 Games | Tampa Bay |
| 2.87 | GPG | 3.37 |
| 1.80 | GAPG | 1.57 |
| 42.9% | PP% | 25.0% |
| 80.0% | PK% | 76.0% |
| 42.84% | 5v5 Shot Attempt % | 50.89% |
| 51.67% | 5v5 High Danger Chances % | 49.10% |
| 10.96% | 5v5 Shooting % | 13.15% |
| .939 | 5v5 Save % | .939 |
| John Tavares – 9 | G Leader – all situations | Brayden Point – 9 |
| Mitch Marner – 11 | A Leader – all situations | Nikita Kucherov -15 |
| John Tavares – 14 William Nylander – 14 Mitch Marner – 14 Auston Matthews – 14 | P Leader – all situations | Nikita Kucherov – 20 |
| Max Domi – 18 | PIM Leader – all situations | Yanni Gourde – 12 |
| 8-1-1 | Record | 6-3-1 |
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
| Jake Guentzel | Brayden Point | Nikita Kucherov |
| Brandon Hagel | Anthony Cirelli | Gage Goncalves |
| Nick Paul | Yanni Gourde | Oliver Bjorkstrand |
| Zemgus Girgensons | Luke Glendening | Mitchell Chaffee |
Defense:
| Victor Hedman | J.J. Moser |
| Ryan McDonagh | Erik Cernak |
| Emil Lilleberg | Darren Raddysh |
Goaltenders:
| Andrei Vasilevskiy |
| Jonas Johansson |
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forwards:
| Matthew Knies | Auston Matthews | Mitch Marner |
| Bobby McMann | John Tavares | William Nylander |
| Scott Laughton | Max Domi | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Steven Lorentz | Pontus Holmberg | Nicholas Robertson |
Defense:
| Morgan Reilly | Brandon Carlo |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | Chris Tanev |
| Simon Benoit | Philippe Myers |
Goaltenders:
| Anthony Stolarz |
| Joseph Woll |
