Game Twenty-Three: Toronto Maple Leafs (13-7-2) at Tampa Bay Lightning (12-8-2)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, ESPN+, 102.5 FM
Odds: Lightning +100
After a quick, but successful, road trip to Nashville, the Tampa Bay Lightning are back to host the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight. As of this morning, the Leafs have a two-point lead on the Bolts, and a victory by the home team would pull the Lightning dead level with Toronto, with only the Florida Panthers ahead of them on the standings board. Needless to say, this is as big of a game as a team could have in November.
Despite their comfy relationship in the standings, the two teams arrive at Amalie Arena tonight on two different trajectories. Despite a lopsided loss to the Panthers on Wednesday, the Leafs are on a bit of a heater, going 7-2-1 over their last ten games, while the Lightning have yo-yo’ed to a 5-3-2 record over their last ten. More importantly, the Leafs are expecting Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies to return to the line-up after lengthy absences due to injury. Meanwhile, the Lightning’s forward corps is being held together with medical tape and liquid glue.
Nick Paul, who has five points in ten games against the Leafs in his Lightning career, is still considered day-to-day, as is Mitchell Chaffee. Anthony Cirelli, the Selke Sniper, has in the last two games missed some blocking a shot with his foot and his face (not recommended). Oh, and all-world wizard on the ice, Nikita Kucherov, missed the second period of yesterday’s game, and then looked absolutely worn out after picking up the game-winning assist in overtime.
At least Andrei Vasilevskiy is rested as he remained in Tampa during the Lightning’s brisk trip to Nashville. He also has something of a score to settle with the Leafs, who chased him in the second period of their first meeting this year. Vasilevskiy plays with a very quiet chip on his shoulder, so expect him to be on his game tonight.
With the number of skating wounded in the line-up tonight, the Lightning are likely to take a similar approach to the game as they did in the third period of their most recent outing. As Coach Jon Cooper put it after the game,
“[T]hat third period we were just playing TV timeout to TV timeout and putting us in a situation we weren’t gonna give this game away, and we didn’t.”
Expect the Lightning to come out early and try to establish a lead. From there they need that similar mindset of grinding out action, and focusing on getting to the next whistle, the next stoppage in play. It’s not the sexiest hockey in the world, but it’s the kind that beats good teams. As annoying as it is, the Leafs are a good team, and should be better with Matthews and Knies back in the line-up.
It’s been the top-six that have been carrying the offense for the Lightning lately as Cirelli has 10 points (8 goals, 2 assists) in his last 8 games while Brayden Point has scored 8 goals in his last 6. Brandon Hagel has been chipping in on the power play, short-handed, and even strength with 10 points (2 goals, 8 assists) in his last five games as he makes a bid for the Team Canada roster at the 4 Nations Face-Off.
They will have their work cut out for them in the scoring department tonight. Part of what has led to their success this year, is that they’ve finally found a solid goaltender who can stay healthy. Anthony Stolarz is 7-4-2 with a 2.33 GAA and outstanding .921 SV%. Evolving Hockey has him at 8.05 GSAx, so he’s not just riding a strong defense in front of him, he’s earning the victories for the Leafs. There has been a bit of a wobble in his performance of late, as he’s allowed three or more goals in each of his last three starts, with two of the games ending up as losses.
The Leafs could turn to Joseph Woll tonight, who is riding a personal four-game winning streak that dates back to November 9th, and he’s stopped 55 of the last 57 shots he’s faced. Woll has plenty of success in his short career against the Bolts, posting a 3-1 record with a .933 SV% and 2.22 GAA against them.
Following tonight’s game, the Lightning have a bit of a break before taking off on their West Coast trip. They’ll be off until Thursday, giving their beat-up forwards a nice chance to heal up a little, and giving the entire team a mental break after a rush of games to finish the month of November. Before that, though, they need to put everything they have on the ice to get through the game against the Maple Leafs.
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov (?)
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli (?) –
Gage Goncalves – Conor Geekie – Cameron Atkinson
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mikey Eyssimont
Victor Hedman – J.J. Moser
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Darren Raddysh / Nick Perbix
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Toronto Maple Leafs
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Pontus Holmberg – John Tavares – Mitch Marner
Nick Robertson – Fraser Minten – Steven Lorentz
Alexander Steeves – Connor Dewar – Nikta Grebenkin
Morgan Reilly – Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jake McCabe – Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins
Anthony Stolarz
Joseph Woll
