We’re finally getting around to reviewing the 2022-23 season. Instead of assigning grades or any of that nonsense, we’ll start by looking at the player’s best goal from the season and go from there. For some it’ll be easy, others have way more to choose from.
Player
Mikhail Sergachev
Stat Line
70 games played, 10 goals, 54 assists, 53 PIMs, 156 shots, 6.08 iXG (5v5), 128 hits, 23:49 TOI
(playoffs) 6 games played, 1 goal, 2 assists, 16 PIMs, 11 shots, 0.14 iXG (5v5), 16 hits, 26:55 TOI
Goal of the Year Video

Goal of the year description
First of all, his goal of the year isn’t necessarily my favorite. My favorite was the one he scored against Florida in December. When you add in the retro uniforms for the Bolts, the powder blue ones from the Panthers and the fact that Sergei Bobrovsky was buried under a pile of bodies when the puck went in, how could you not love this goal?
Instead, his goal of the year is his first of the season. Everything about this goal is poetry. From the motion by all five Lightning skaters on the ice, to the behind-the-back pass from Nick Paul, to the quick release of Sergachev. It was all so soothingly rhythmic.
As you scroll through his goal catalog, the first thing to notice is that all ten of his tallies were scored basically off of cycle plays. They all came with the Lightning set up in the zone so there were no end-to-end rushes for Sergy this season. The second thing you notice is the variety of shots he has from similar locations. This one he scores with a quick, almost undetected wrist shot. He’s also scored with big ripping slapshots. There is also almost a hybrid shot, a slappish shot with a quick, short windup. He gives goaltenders and defenders different looks so they can’t rely on him doing just one thing.
On this goal, he almost no-sells the shot totally. As he wheeled out he just kind of threw it at the net without much upper body movement. The subtle flick of the wrists delayed any reaction from the defender or the goaltender. Sergachev picked the absolute right time to release the puck. As you can see from this screen shot, the puck is already off of his stick, past the initial defender, and on it’s way to the short side while John Gibson is still craning his neck around the traffic in front. He had no chance of stopping this puck.

Those are the types of offensive instincts that Sergachev brings to the Lightning.
How did the 2022-23 season go for them?
Sergachev seems to be quite the polarizing player among the fan base and their thoughts can change on a game-by-game basis. With the increased role he saw on the ice last year there were more chances for him to make an impact, both positive and negative. However, with a few months of hindsight, it’s safe to say that his season overall was a step forward.

Sergachev had the best offensive season of his career, setting personal bests in assists (54), points (64), 5v5 goals (7), power play assists (24), and ice-time (23:49). He matched his career-best in goals with 10. The 25-year-old is among the top 10% of offensive defensemen in the league and, if he stays healthy, is likely to remain a 60-70 point producer for the next few seasons.
Defensively, it was a solid year as well. One big area of growth over the last few seasons has been his ability to shut down entries on his side of the ice. He has improved on reading plays and then using his physical prowess to eliminate plays before they get going. He was one of the best on the team at denying entries with almost 15% of the entry plays against him getting shut down.

Those plays rarely show up on the highlight reels because he is, in effect, shutting down a highlight before it happens. When he reads the play correctly, angles the opposing forward away from the center of the ice and forces a weak dump-in or a turnover along the boards it turns into a nothing play. The more nothing plays that happen for the other team on the ice, the better things go for him as a defender.
That being said, there are still way too many mind-boggling turnovers on his part. What we will find out over the next few seasons is if this is an inherent trait in his style of play, i.e. he is just a gambler with the puck, or if it’s something that he will adjust and eliminate from his game. It’s all well and good to take chances in the offensive zone, to a certain extent the Lightning’s offense requires that, but it’s the turnovers in his own zone and neutral zone that are the most damaging.
The analytics site Money Puck dinged him for 28 defensive zone giveaways this season. While not the most on the team (Victor Hedman and Ian Cole were ahead of him) it’s still way too many. When the blueliners are giving up the puck, it puts a lot of pressure on the goaltender as forwards have often already left the zone and the opponents are rewarded with odd-man advantages in dangerous situations.
There are parts of his game that still need to be cleaned up in order for him to make that next leap in skill level. He is blessed with offensive instincts and worked hard to improve that aspect of his game after a rather disappointing 2021-22 season. He has worked his defensive game to at least an acceptable level (and secured his first Norris Trophy votes, one for fourth place and the other for fifth place). The next trick will be to elevate his defensive work even more, and should he do that, the $8.5 million cap hit that starts this upcoming season will be a bargain.
2023-24 Contract Status
Sergachev’s 8-year extension that he signed last year kicks in so he is signed through 2030-31 at an $8,500,000 cap hit. The deal is heavier on the front end with salary so he’ll actually make $11,050,000 this season all said and done.
Do we expect them to score more or less next season?
Coming off a career-year, the expectations are high for the 25-year-old so I’m going to say yes, I do expect him to score more than 10 goals. However, more offense isn’t what the team explicitly needs from Sergachev. As mentioned above, stepping up his defensive game will be the biggest help he can provide for the 2023-24 Tampa Bay Lightning. He has the latent talent to be a 15-goal guy in this league, especially if he stays on the number one power play unit and gets his 23-25 minutes a game.
It was right around his age 25 and age 26 seasons that Victor Hedman made the leap from good defenseman to Norris-level defender (he finished third at 26 and won it at 27). Will we see the same leap from Sergachev?