Canadiens at Lightning Game Five Preview: It’s been Even Steven so far

Game Five: Montreal Canadiens (2-2) at Tampa Bay Lightning (2-2)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

TV/Stream/Radio: The Spot, ESPN2, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -160

Know the Opponents: Habs Eye on the Prize

Prior to this series starting one of the things that perplexed us here at Raw Charge Worldwide Incorporated was the overwhelming notion by some, either national media or on social media, that the Lightning were going to win this series fairly easily. If nothing else, that notion showed a wild lack of knowledge of both teams, and the strengths that had propelled them both to 106-point seasons. Did we think the Lightning would win the series? Yes. Pretty sure we’re on record for a Lightning win in six or seven games.

If a series is going to go that long, it means each team is going to lose a few games. Perhaps the only surprise, at least based on how the teams performed in the regular season, is that each team actually won a game at home. Through four games, each team has tasted victory twice and wallowed in defeat twice. Not only is the overall series tied, the stats leading up to the results are also fairly close as well.

While each team has, at times, dominated play, when the final whistle has been blown in each of the previous four games, the games themselves have been close. All four games have been settled by a lone goal with three of them needing overtime. Throughout the entire series, there has been one multi-goal lead and it lasted all of six-and-a-half minutes. Oh, and the team that enjoyed that lead ended up losing the game.

These are two very good teams that play different styles, but have found ways to pull out victories even when things are going their way. The one striking advantage the Lightning have in the series has been their shot-attempt numbers, but Montreal’s habit of getting in front of shots has nullified that. The good news is that the number of shots (and scoring chances) is indicative of the fact that the Lightning have spent more time in the offensive zone.

According to NHL Edge stats, they’ve been in the Montreal zone for 42.6% of their time while Montreal has pestered their zone just 39.5%. That puts the Lightning in the top five among teams in the playoffs while the Canadiens are a lowly 13th out of 16 teams. However, if you think about how the two teams go about their day, it makes sense. Tampa Bay is a deliberate team in the offensive zone. They like to work the perimeters and cycle the puck around. The younger Montreal squad is quicker. They like to attack off the rush and move the puck with pace.

It would be very worrisome if the Canadiens were leading in that category. It would also probably mean that we would be looking at a very different series. The Lightning need to keep the puck as far away from their zone as possible. You know, the ol “offense is the best defense” strategy.

“But wait! What about all of the power plays? The Lightning power play has been terrible!” First, please don’t yell. Second, while it hasn’t been lethal, the Bolts power play hasn’t been that bad. In fact, it’s been, well, fine, and after a Game One where they were outclassed by Montreal’s special teams, they’ve fought their way back to even in the stats department.

Should we roll out cake and beer for a power play that converts one out of every five chances? No, but considering the Bolts were at 18.2% post-Olympic Break, and that they’ve already doubled their goal production from last year’s playoff, they should at least get one cookie.

If you’re rooting for the Lightning (and we do welcome all of the Canadiens’ fans heading over here for a glimpse of the Hockey Bay lifestyle) the positive to take out of the special teams number is that they’ve only allowed two power-play goals over the last three games.

After surrendering four goals on their first six short-handed opportunities (Game One and the first period of Game Two) the Bolts have given up just one goal in their last thirteen times on the penalty kill. In a series where the whistles have been blown with regularity, that has been a huge check in the positive column. Especially since it means they’re keeping the Big Three (Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky) off of the score sheet on the power play and at regular strength.

With four games in the books, both teams will likely agree that they haven’t played to their fullest potential. The team that can find a way to get to that level over the next few games will likely win this series. However, it’s close enough that things could be decided on a fluke goal as well. That’s why we love playoff hockey, right?

The Lightning enter tonight’s game with an all-time record of 8-6 in Game 5’s when the series is tied. However, that number improves to 5-2 for series that started on home ice. Is it a must win? No, but it’s another “would really be nice to win game”. According to Hockey Reference, the team that wins Game 5 wins a seven-game series roughly 79% of the time. So, they should probably try and do that.

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

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Defense:

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Montreal Canadiens

Forwards:

Defense:

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