With two games in the books the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens shift their series north to the Paris of North America. Lightning fans thought all was lost after a Game One overtime loss. J.J. Moser provided a dopamine rush with his OT winner in Game Two. With Montreal claiming home advantage for at least the next two games the only thing we know is that this series is coming back to Tampa for at least one more game.
It has been, to say the least, an interesting series. At times both teams have been in command of play. In 99:31 of 5v5 play the Lightning lead in shot attempts (100-66), shots on goal (42-27), and scoring chances (39-30). Most importantly, they have the 4-2 lead in goals scored. However, Montreal leads in expected goals (3.38 – 2.89) based primarily on their high-danger chance domination (18-7). They are also winning the special teams battle, converting four of their nine opportunities while the Lightning are just two-for-nine.
While the Canadiens have racked up the high-danger chances, it feels like they’ve come in bunches for them. Primarily in the first five minutes of the third period of Game One, and then early in the first period of Game Two. Meanwhile, the Lightning haven’t generated a lot of Grade A chances, but they’ve paced their offensive output more evenly throughout the game.
Match-ups have been key, especially at 5v5, with the Lightning doing an excellent job of keeping the Nick Suzuki line off of the scoreboard. Thanks primarily to Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel, and Nikita Kucherov (at least for the second half of Game Two) Montral has been held to just five shots when Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky have been on the ice. On the other side of the ice, the Lightning have scored three times when Cirelli and his mates have been on the ice.
In Montreal, the Canadiens will have last change and it can be assumed that Martin St. Louis will do his best to keep his number one line as far away from Cirelli as possible. The Bolts will need one of their other lines to step up defensively. How they construct their lines in Montreal will be interesting. After struggling through the first half of Game Two, Coach Cooper switched things up. They ended up something like:
Brayden Point – Nick Paul – Jake Guentzel
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Nikita Kucherov
Dominic James – Yanni Gourde – Gage Goncalves
Corey Perry – Zemgus Girgensons – Scott Sabourin
That new third line seemed to have an extra jump in their step and almost ended it in overtime when Jakub Dobes had to make his best save of the night on Dominic James. They were together for just 5:39 of ice time, but still generated six scoring chances while surrendering zero. Not too shabby. Will Coach Cooper keep them together with the potential of them having to face Suzuki and his friends?
First-liner Nick Paul is an interesting choice as well, but despite all of his offensive struggles this season, he is winning face-offs. On Tuesday he went 8-for-11, including 4-for-6 in the defensive zone. Moving Mr. Does-It-All to the middle of the ice also takes some of the pressure off of Brayden Point, who is still looking to find his game.
As for the goaltending. Both netminders have been solid. It doesn’t feel like either has stolen a game, but they’ve both made key saves to keep their teams in game. Andrei Vasilevskiy was extremely solid early in Game Two when Montreal came out flying. Dobes, hasn’t been tested with difficult shots as much, but he’s making the saves he needs to while his teammates block a copious amount of shots.
| Goaltender | 5v5 GAA | 5v5 Save% | High-Danger Save % | Middle-Danger Save % | GSAx |
| Vasilevskiy | 1.21 | .926 | .833 | 1.000 | 1.38 |
| Dobes | 2.41 | .905 | .500 | .824 | -1.11 |
That is not a typo, Dobes has stopped just half of the high-danger shots he’s faced. The problem for the Lightning is that they have generated just two shots from those dangerous areas. They should probably try to get some more of those. Tampa Bay has generated 17 middle-danger shots, tied for the most with Boston and Anaheim, and found some success there as well.
When they are getting their shots through, they are finding success. Montreal is really good at blocking shots, but the Lightning have to just keep at it and make sure they are retrieving the puck if the initial shot is blocked. Their first two goals in Game Two both came off blocked/deflected attempts. The other key will be to make sure that the shot makes it through the first line of Montreal’s defense. If their forwards are knocking down shots and recovering them, it’s going to lead to a lot of breakaways or odd-skater rushes.
Montreal’s transition game has had a few chances, but for the most part the Lightning have kept the play in front of them. They’ve negated the Canadiens’ speed for the majority of 5v5 play and it’s a big part of why the Habs only have two 5v5 goals, both of which came from plays off of Lightning defensive zone turnovers.
Some quick thoughts on special teams. The Lightning had a horrible Game One shorthanded. No reason to sugarcoat it or try and dig in and find some positives. Montreal was able to enter the zone and their passing completely flummoxed Tampa Bay. While the Bolts surrendered a goal on Montreal’s first chance in Game Two, part of that was based on circumstances. Two of the Lightning’s best penalty-killing forwards (Hagel and Guentzel) were in the box, and Gage Goncalves was pressed into action.
Once their regular unit was on the ice, the Bolts killed off their other three short-handed opportunities, including the key one at the end of regulation. Tampa Bay was able to control the puck a little more in their own zone and got the clears when they needed them (oh, and had a little help from the post on a shot from Lane Hutson).
As for the Lightning’s power play. They connected twice in Game One and generated several good looks. In the second game, they had a bit more trouble and created just one high-danger chance during their three advantages. They had 14 shot attempts, but only 5 of them made it on net.
No one expected this series to be easy, and after two games in Tampa, both teams feel like they left a little meat on the bone. They are probably happy to have a win, but feel like with a little more execution or poise they could be up two games. The Lightning made adjustments in Game Two, now it’s time to see if the Canadiens can do the same thing.
Will the Lightning continue to try and play the heavy as the series continues? After things calmed down following the Hagel/Slafkovsky fight, the Lightning seemed to find their game a bit. They got back to playing with pace and pushed the Canadiens back into their zone a bit. Oddly enough, Montreal has been credited with more hits (85-78)
Hopefully ya’ll have restocked on the antacids, downloaded some meditation apps, and are ready for at least three more stressful games. Hockey is fun!
