Game Number Thirty-Three: New York Rangers (16-17-1) at Tampa Bay Lightning (19-11-2)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, MSG 2, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning -162
To say the Tampa Bay Lightning’s schedule in December has been odd would be an understatement. They’ve only played nine games so far with just two to go (including tonight’s game). However, they’re also playing back-to-back back-to-backs. There was only one week where they played the standard every other night (December 8th -14th) and they’ve had five breaks of at least two days off between games.
There are benefits to a slow schedule. For one, some of their banged-up players can have an extra day or two off. We saw that at the beginning of the month and after the west coast trip. It also allows the coaching staff to schedule practices to help reinforce strategies and work out bad tendencies that creep into a team’s play when they’re going every other night.
The Bolts are coming off of another multi-day break as they were able to enjoy the holiday break at home with four days off since the shutout victory down in Sunrise on Monday. Now that all the presents have been opened and the holiday goose has been consumed, they’re back at it with a back-to-back. Tonight they host the wayward New York Rangers and follow that up with their traditional late December game against the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday at 5:00 PM. With the Bucs game kicking off at 1:00 PM, we’re sure a few people will attempt the sports doubleheader. Good luck if you’re one of them. Please make sure you hydrate.
In keeping with the December pattern, the Lightning will have three more days off before a jam-packed January gets underway on the second. With multiple days off before and after, the back-to-back won’t be as troublesome as it normally might be. The Bolts should also be relatively healthy heading into it (although it appears Mikey Eyssimont is day-to-day). It will also start the Lightning on the track to equalize the amount of games played with the rest of the division. By the end of January, that games played column should be a lot closer than it is right now with Tampa Bay having at least three games in hand on the three teams they’re chasing in the standings.
Of course, games in hand only benefit the Lightning if they win the games they play. On paper, both the Rangers and Canadiens should be teams the Bolts beat. It’s kind of an odd thing to say about the Rangers, but if you haven’t been paying attention, things aren’t going well for the team that plays in the Most Famous Arena in the World. The Blueshirts are in the midst of a 13-losses-in-17-games stretch that has landed everyone not named Igor Shesterkin on the trading block.
The losing skid has already led to Kaapo Kakko forwarding his mail to Seattle and Jacob Trouba trading New York taxes for California taxes. Erstwhile forward Chris Kreider has had his name bandied about the trade rumor columns after he was explicitly mentioned in a memo that Chris Drury sent to all 31 of his fellow general managers at the end of November that indicated the Rangers were open for business.
That memo was sent when the Rangers were a respectable 12-6-1. They are now 16-17-1. Now, we’re not great at math, but their record doesn’t seem to be moving in the right direction. If Drury’s intention was to fire up the team, it was a spectacular backfire. They enter tonight’s game tied with the Islanders for the fewest points in the Metro Division. While there is more than half of a season to go, clawing their way up in that division won’t be easy. They are only five points out of a wild card spot right now, but the three teams ahead of them are all in their division.
What has gone wrong? Pretty much everything, but the glaring issue has been on offense. During this 17-game skid, they are currently scoring, averaging 1.87 GF/60, which is dead last in the league over that stretch. If they weren’t scoring, but were still generating scoring chances, perhaps the alarm bells wouldn’t be ringing quite so loudly, but they’re in the bottom half of the league in scoring chances (24.99) and high-danger chances (10.02). They just aren’t generating enough quality at 5v5, and an anemic power play that is converting 13.0% of their chances isn’t bailing them out.
With Trouba enjoying the Anaheim sunshine and K’andre Miller out for two weeks, they’ve also been in shambles defensively, allowing 29.03 scoring chances per 60 minutes and 31.94 shots against at 5v5. Igor Shesterkin has valiantly defended the crease with a .914 save percentage during this stretch, but the pure volume of pucks sent his way has led to an unusual (at least for him) 3.04 goals-against average. The fact that his GAA is over 3.00, but Evolving Hockey still credits him with an 11.63 GSAx during his 12 appearances shows exactly how much offense other teams have been generating against the Rangers of late.
The good news for the Rangers is that Miller was activated off of injured reserve yesterday and should be back in the line-up. Kreider should also play after being a healthy scratch on Monday in their 5-0 loss to the Devils. Will it be enough against a Lightning team that is cooking pretty well right now?
It’s not a stretch to say, even with their 4-2 slip-up against the Panthers a week ago, the Lightning are playing some of the best hockey we’ve seen them play in the last two seasons. They are scoring (4.44 goals per game) and defending (1.89 goals against per game) while capitalizing on the power play (36.0%) and not getting burned while shorthanded (87.0% penalty kill). All while dealing with injuries to a variety of players.
The games, at times, aren’t always pretty, but they are emerging with two points on most nights. Some nights, it’s been the offense (8-3 win against Calgary); other nights, it’s the defense (3-1 win over St. Louis); and on other nights, it’s Jonas Johansson (4-0 win over Florida). Finding different ways to win is what good teams do, and over the course of their first 30+ games, the Lightning are showing that they are indeed, a good team.
Now, they have to do it for another 50 games, and we can relax. They’re about to hit the grind-it-out portion of the season and can’t afford to drop winnable games. Tonight is one of those games, and now they have to go out and grab those two points.
