While the eight remaining teams are battling for the Stanley Cup, the other 24 teams are getting ready for the fun of the summer. The draft, free agency, random franchise-changing trades are all ahead of us. It’s also restricted free agent season. Teams are deciding which players to keep in the organization, and which players to potentially poach from another.
There is some speculation that the bump in the salary cap, coupled with a lackluster unrestricted free agency class will lead to the possibility of some offer sheets being flung around this summer. Of course, this is nothing new. Every spring/summer the “there are going to be offer sheets this summer, we really mean it this time!” discourse happens. Usually, it ends up just being a lot of speculation and nothing happens. However, we did see a couple go through as St. Louis nabbed Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway from the Edmonton Oilers via the offer sheet method.
Perhaps the old-boys network unwritten understanding of not issuing offer sheets is starting to crumble as younger, more aggressive general managers are entering the ranks. Before they can start throwing offers out, though, they need to know what it’s going to cost them. On Tuesday, the league released the thresholds for compensation.
| AAV | Draft Picks required |
| $1.54MM or less | No compensation |
| $1.54MM to $2.34MM | Third-round pick |
| $2.34MM to $4.68MM | Second-round pick |
| $4.68MM to $7.02MM | First and third-round picks |
| $7.02MM to $9.36MM | First, second and third-round picks |
| $9.36MM to $11.7MM | Two firsts, a second and third-round picks |
| Over $11.7MM | Four first-round picks |
The important cravat for this is that the picks surrendered for compensation have to be the team’s own picks. So, despite the Lightning having a second-round pick, they couldn’t offer it in an offer sheet scenario because the pick is Los Angeles’ (acquired last summer in the Tanner Jeannot trade).
Looking at the Lightning’s current selection of picks, they are likely out of the running in regards to offering any sheets to anyone. The highest pick that is their own is a fifth-round pick. We mentioned the second-round pick, but they currently have no first-round or third-round picks either. If they offer sheet someone for the minimum ($1.54 million or less) chances are the team the player is already on will likely match.
So, what about the reverse? Will the Lightning have any of their players poached from their organization? That answer, is also likely a hard no.
On their current NHL roster there is one RFA, and that is Gage Goncalves. The Portuguese Pistol had a really strong finish to his season and is likely to see a nice little bridge deal from the Lightning that will give him a raise on his current $775,000 salary. How big of a raise is to be determined, and it might take an arbitration hearing to figure it out. However, it’s unlikely to see another team jump in with a figure that the Lightning aren’t willing to match.
Evolving Hockey has a contract projection of a two-year, $1.529 deal for Goncalves as the most likely outcome and that seems reasonable. In his first taste of full-time NHL exposure, Goncalves put up 20 points (8 goals, 12 assists) in 60 regular-season games while adding another 4 points (1 goal, 3 assists) in 5 playoff games. Most of that production came after a second recall from Syracuse and it looks like he’s earned, at the very least, a third-line role for next season.
Along with Goncalves there are two other players that have arbitration rights – Jaydon Dureau and Max Crozier. We expect them to hammer something out with Crozier, who could be in the running for a spot on the Lightning roster next season. Dureau is an interesting case. The 24-year-old had a really strong summer and seemed destined to make the next step as a regular member of the Crunch. That early season play faded, and he spent the majority of the season with Orlando where he put up 29 points in 32 games. There is a chance that the Lightning don’t tender him a contract and let him try another organization.
The other RFA’s should all see their qualifying offers, even if it’s just for the Lightning to retain their rights (looking at you Waltteri Merela and Hugo Alnefelt). Ryder Korczak and Jack Finley are the two RFAs that are with the Crunch and don’t have arbitration rights and should be relatively easy re-signings.
So, while the rest of the NHL might get a little excited about the possibility of Marco Rossi or Luke Hughes getting offer-sheeted, it won’t be by the Lightning.
